This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Inflation accelerates once again, setting the stage for Central bank hikes Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to an almost-18 year high of 26.7% y/y in September, …
16th October 2023
Confidence suffers from renewed inflation concerns The sharp fall in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to a five-month low of 63.0 in early October, from 68.1, probably reflects the hit from recent financial market moves, as well as …
13th October 2023
Credit growth has stabilised After slowing sharply in Q2, broad credit growth edged up in August and held steady last month. Although a sharp rebound seems unlikely, we do think credit growth could pick up somewhat over the coming quarters, especially if …
Fall in inflation but Riksbank still not done This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The drop in inflation in September was a little smaller than we and the consensus had anticipated and strengthens the case for the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Export volumes hit fresh high but prices falling China’s export values continued to contract year-on-year in September. But to the extent that foreign demand has cooled …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Deflation fears to dissipate further PPI deflation continued to ease in September. CPI inflation edged down, but core inflation remained at a six-month high, with services …
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept monetary policy settings unchanged today which was in line with both our and consensus expectations. While another hold is likely in January, further falls in the core inflation rate and weaker growth are …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Core inflation to remain on downward trend The 0.3% m/m rise in core consumer prices in September suggests, at face value, that the downward trend in core inflation may be …
12th October 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. CPI inflation drops to within target, but food inflation threat is far from over Headline consumer price inflation dropped back sharply to within the RBI’s 2-6% target range in …
Construction boom helps to offset manufacturing weakness Mexico’s industrial sector posted a modest 0.3% m/m rise in output in August as another jump in construction output more than offset renewed weakness in manufacturing. But more timely indicators …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. August’s resilience won’t prevent contraction in GDP in Q3 The 0.2% m/m rise in real GDP in August followed July’s 0.6% m/m contraction and will raise hopes that the economy has …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Non-residential investment probably declined in Q3 Machinery orders are on track for a fall across the third quarter, consistent with our forecast of a decline in business …
Minutes stress uncertainty over economic outlook Despite the ‘higher for longer’ message from the Fed’s updated rate projections last month, the minutes from the September FOMC meeting suggest that officials’ confidence in those forecasts is limited, with …
11th October 2023
Inflation now starting to take off The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to 6.0% y/y in September will concern policymakers at the central bank and suggests that price pressures are now well and truly building in the economy. We think the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Services inflation remains stubbornly strong The further rise in Brazilian inflation to 5.2% y/y probably marks the peak in this mini-inflation cycle and the headline rate …
First clear signs of slowdown emerge The m/m falls in Turkish retail sales and industrial production in August provided the first clear signs that economic activity has started to soften following the policy U-turn earlier this year. Policy tightening …
This report has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a chart and table of the key data. Inflation at or close to its peak Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up from 37.4% y/y in August to a fresh multi-decade high of 38.0% y/y in …
10th October 2023
Fall in inflation increases chances of November rate cut The larger-than-expected fall in Czech inflation in September, to 6.9% y/y, increases the chance of policymakers kickstarting a monetary easing cycle at their next meeting in November. We remain …
Lower inflation suggests that Norges Bank is done As a result of September’s weaker-than-expected inflation data from Norway, we now think that Norges Bank’s tightening cycle is over . The decline in CPI inflation from 4.8% in August to 3.3% in September …
Fresh rise in services inflation to harden Banxico’s hawkish stance Mexico’s headline inflation rate continued to edge lower, to 4.5% y/y, in September on the back of softer core price pressures. Even so, the fresh rise in services inflation will …
9th October 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Weakness in German industry to continue The further drop in German industrial production in August was better than it looked as it was driven by volatile components. However, it …
Wage pressures easing This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The strong headline employment gain in September was entirely due to a rebound in educational services employment, with employment elsewhere edging down. …
6th October 2023
Despite strong payrolls, wage growth continues to slow The surprisingly strong 336,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September adds to the evidence on real activity that the economy is holding up well despite the headwind from higher interest rates. …
Near-term momentum in house prices is downwards The sixth consecutive monthly decline in the Halifax House Price Index in September leaves it significantly more downbeat than the Nationwide figures about near-term momentum in house prices. Given the …
RBI stands firm in fight against inflation The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in headline inflation. There is still a significant risk of the easing cycle that we …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Regular wage growth set to remain strong Regular earnings growth remained strong in August and with the labour market set to tighten, it could yet accelerate further. Growth in …
Q3 exports rebound, but outlook remains weak The trade deficit narrowed to a three-year low of $58.3bn in August, from $64.7bn, as exports increased by $4.1bn or (+1.6% m/m) and imports declined by $2.3bn (-0.7% m/m). The gain in exports was driven by a …
5th October 2023
Surge in exports an upside risk to preliminary GDP estimate Exports rose by far more than imports in August, even as the latter benefited more from the fading disruption from the earlier BC port strikes. That suggests there are upside risks to the …
NBR holding firm in inflation fight The National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept its main policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today, and we expect policy to remain on hold into next year. The NBR will be the last in Central and Eastern Europe to start cutting …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Construction PMI falls below 50 as commercial balance plunges The decline in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 50.8 in August to 45.0 in September took it below the 50 …
Australian economy braces for weaker growth Data released today reaffirm our view that the Australian economy is on shaky ground. To start with, trade data suggest that net exports will have become a drag on GDP growth in Q3. The trade surplus widened …
Surveys consistent with moderate growth The small fall in the ISM services index to 53.6 in September, from 54.5, contradicted the rebound in the ISM manufacturing index. Nevertheless, the weighted average of the two ISM surveys are still consistent with …
4th October 2023
NBP cuts again, but rates won’t fall as far as most expect The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP’s) decision to cut interest rates again today, from 6.00% to 5.75%, suggests that the doves are ruling the roost on the MPC, but we think that interest rates …
High mortgage rates crush home purchase demand Rising mortgage rates caused mortgage applications for home purchase to slip to a fresh 28-year low in September. With mortgage rates edging above 7.5% in the last week of the month as Treasury yields surged …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Euro-zone headed for recession The drop in retail sales in August and weakness in the final PMIs for September are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy will fall …
RBNZ’s next move will be down Although the RBNZ will retain its tightening bias, we believe that the official cash rate is at its cyclical peak. All 27 of the analysts polled by Reuters, including ourselves, had expected the Bank to leave the OCR …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Japan’s Ministry of Finance may have intervened in support of the yen today after the USD/JPY rate rose through the symbolic 150 level in the wake of the upside surprise in US …
3rd October 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Industry stumbled in Q3 The 0.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in August failed to fully offset the decline in July and suggests that the sector was as a drag on …
This report has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a Chart of the key data. Gulf non-oil sectors cushioning slowdown; Egypt’s economy sputtering along The September release of PMIs for the Middle East and North Africa showed that activity …
Inflation surge starting to cool, but further rate hikes in store The small (by Turkey’s recent standards) rise in inflation to 61.5% last month, from 58.9% in August, provides the first signs that the inflation spike is close to levelling off. But the …
This publication has been updated with additional analysis. Inflation rising, but not for long The rise in Switzerland’s headline inflation rate in September was largely due to the increase in oil prices in recent months, which caused energy inflation to …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Indian manufacturing growth cools a touch India’s manufacturing PMI moderated in September but remained high. However, there are reasons to think a further slight cooling in …
RBA will deliver final rate hike next month While new RBA Governor Michelle Bullock didn’t spring any surprises at her first monetary policy decision today, we think that the Bank will hike interest rates to a peak of 4.35% at its next meeting in …
ISM hits 10-month high; construction boosted by lack of homes for sale The ISM manufacturing index rallied to a 10-month high of 49.0 in September, from 47.6, but that still leaves the index at a level that, historically, has been consistent with GDP …
2nd October 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . PMI continued weakness signals poor growth till year end South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recorded a fresh large fall in September, suggesting that the pick-up in activity in …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs increase, but CEE industry still in the doldrums The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of Emerging Europe last month, but remained consistent with weak industrial …
Pause in price falls unlikely to mark the trough The stabilisation of house prices in September was a surprise given mortgage rates are still well above the level which allowed the first leg down in house prices to bottom out. But leading indicators of …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Price pressures remain strong as economy is running hot The stronger-than-expected improvement in the latest Tankan survey suggests that the economy will continue to expand at …
Core PCE inflation slowing rapidly despite resilient consumption The August income & spending data confirm that real consumption growth strengthened in the third quarter, but also cast doubt on the market narrative that resilient growth will see interest …
29th September 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. On the cusp of recession The economy failed to make much headway in July and August and the latest business surveys suggest that GDP probably contracted in September, which would …
