This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Inflation now close to 30% y/y, CBN needs to act soon Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to 28.9% y/y in December, as a weak naira continues to push up prices. …
15th January 2024
German troubles not over yet Preliminary data published today show that German GDP contracted in Q4 and we expect it to continue to struggle this year. Today’s data release shows that Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3% in calendar year 2023, and a …
Inflation ends 2023 on a softer note Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 1.7% y/y in November to 1.5% y/y in December, the weakest pace recorded since January 2022. And we expect that inflation will continue to ease at the start of this …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . The PBOC fails to deliver Despite a cut being widely expected, the MLF was again kept unchanged today – for a fifth straight month. The main factor holding the PBOC back was …
Fall in inflation won’t be sustained The small fall in Russian inflation to 7.4% y/y in December is likely to be temporary, and we still think that the central bank’s tightening cycle has further to run. We expect a 100bp rate hike (to 17.00%) next month. …
12th January 2024
NBR won’t cut rates as far as most expect in 2024 The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today and, although a monetary easing cycle seems to be drawing nearer, we think that interest rates are unlikely to be cut as far …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Elevated headline inflation suggests no imminent rate cuts The rise in headline consumer price inflation to a four-month high in December supports our view that the central bank …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Broad credit growth hits 7-month high, but bank lending still weak The rebound in broad credit growth remained on track thanks to a step up in government borrowing. But growth …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Stagnation in Q4, but recovery in sight The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.2%) increases the chances that the economy escaped a recession …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Export volumes still due for a pullback China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since April. And while export volumes only ticked up slightly, they remain near a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Deflation set to ease gradually Smaller y/y declines in food and energy prices meant that both CPI and PPI deflation eased last month, a trend that we think will …
Consumer spending continued to tumble in Q4 The continued slowdown in household spending in November further cements our view that the RBA won’t lift rates any higher. The ABS’ monthly indicator suggests that household spending rose by 3.1% y/y in …
Core prices boosted by used vehicles & shelter The slightly bigger 0.3% m/m increases in both headline and core CPI would seem to justify the stance of Fed officials that the road back to target could be a little bumpy, but we’re not convinced. The annual …
11th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . The renewed fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.6% y/y, paves the way for another 50bp cut to the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at the central bank’s next …
On hold again, rate cuts in Q2 The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%), but with inflation cooling and growth set to struggle, we think the central bank will cut interest rates sooner than most expect. The decision was …
Inflation slowing, but will remain above target until mid-2025 Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased for a third consecutive from 34.6% y/y in November to 33.6% y/y in December. Comments last night suggest that an enhanced IMF deal is near, which is …
10th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Fall in core inflation confirms Norges Bank is finished with rate hikes The fact that core inflation fell and the headline rate was unchanged in December confirms that Norges …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Disinflation will pave the way for policy loosening before long With price pressures cooling in earnest, we’re growing increasingly confident in our call that the RBA will start …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Virtuous cycle will get renewed boost this year Wage growth slowed sharply in November, driven by a plunge in bonus payments. While we expect the labour market to soften in the …
Tougher times ahead for exporters Export volumes were little changed in November but the surveys suggest that tougher times lie ahead, with export orders seemingly falling fast in December. The trade surplus halved to $1.6bn in November as exports …
9th January 2024
Falling imports and exports suggests demand softening at home and abroad The weakness of both exports and imports in November suggests that weaker growth overseas is now being matched by a softening in domestic demand too. The trade deficit shrank …
NBP has limited scope for rate cuts in 2024 The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we continue to think that the scope for monetary loosening ahead is relatively limited. While the consensus view in recent …
Sharper-than-expected rise in inflation leaves February rate cut in balance The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in December was mainly due to higher non-core inflation but, even so, the odds of Banxico beginning …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. RBA will look past Black Friday spending spree Although retail sales bounced back with a vengeance in November, that result largely reflected a one-off boost from Black Friday …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation will jump again before long Inflation excluding fresh food came close to the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in December, but it will jump to nearly 3% from February and …
8th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Euro-zone activity fell in Q4, services price pressures still look strong The data published this morning are consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP is more likely to have …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Regional sentiment continues to recover The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally continued to rise in December and …
Entering 2024 on a slightly stronger footing South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to an 11-month high in December, helped by an easing of loadshedding. Alongside hopes that recent freight problems are past the worst, this chimes with our view that there …
This page has been updated with additional analysis. Rise in Swiss inflation will be reversed in January The unexpected increase in Swiss inflation in December raises some doubt as to whether rates will be cut soon. However, we suspect that the headline …
Weak ISMs should probably be taken with a pinch of salt The plunge in the ISM services index to a 7-month low in December suggests, at face value, that the economy is sliding into recession. But the poor relationship between the surveys and the hard …
5th January 2024
Employment gains still dominated by non-cyclical growth The slightly bigger-than-expected 216,000 gain in non-farm payrolls (consensus estimate was 170,000) in December coupled with a second consecutive 0.4% m/m gain in average hourly earnings means that …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Jump in wage growth a concern for the Bank The unchanged level of employment in December is consistent with the message from the business surveys that labour demand has weakened …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Jump in headline inflation is just a blip December’s jump in headline inflation in the euro-zone was widely anticipated and entirely due to a base-effects driven increase in …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Construction PMIs still subdued in December The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 45.5 in November to 46.8 in December was driven by the increase in the housing …
Lower mortgage rates see house prices jump in December The big 1.1% m/m increase in the Halifax house price index confirms that falls in mortgage rates are translating into renewed increases in house prices. Given further recent falls in mortgage rates, …
Office-based jobs contractions focused in Midwest and West Coast Total employment growth in November across our 30 metros was weak compared with the rest of 2023, growing by 0.3% 3m/3m once seasonally-adjusted. On average, office-based jobs contracted for …
4th January 2024
Rebound in inflation won’t last The jump in Germany’s headline inflation rate in December came as no surprise as it was driven by energy price subsidies introduced more than a year ago. With core inflation continuing to trend down, it should not affect …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Lower mortgage rates will ease the squeeze, but still some pain to come November’s money and credit data suggest that the recent falls in mortgage rates will stimulate new …
Strong November lending, but subdued investment volumes Net lending to commercial property increased for the ninth consecutive month in November, but that wasn’t reflected in investment volumes which dropped further. But throughout H1 2024 we expect …
Rise in mortgage approvals set to continue The rise in mortgage approvals in November was little surprise given the sharp drop back in mortgage rates since July. Given recent further falls in swap rates, mortgage rates are likely to continue to fall from …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs point to recession The final Composite PMI for the euro-zone in December was revised up significantly from the flash estimate of 47.0 to 47.6, meaning that it was unchanged …
Minutes more nuanced than expected, given post-FOMC hawkish chatter The minutes of the mid-December FOMC meeting were slightly more dovish that we were expecting – more in line with the message delivered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his press conference …
3rd January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Modest rebound to end a dismal year Despite the modest rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.4 in December, from 46.7, the survey indicates that conditions in the factory …
Mortgage rates below 7% spur further recovery in mortgage demand Mortgage rates dropping below 7% were the catalyst for a marked uptick in mortgage applications for home purchase in December. The 7.1% m/m rise in mortgage applications for home purchase …
Headline inflation picks up, but core inflation losing momentum The rise in Turkish inflation to 64.8% y/y in December was broadly in line with expectations and the breakdown provided some signs that underlying price pressures continue to soften. We think …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Factory activity likely to hold up well in 2024 The manufacturing PMI survey for December suggests that activity lost some momentum at the end of 2023. That said, we think that …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further weakness in CEE, but Russia continues to overheat The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Turkey for December suggest that industrial sectors …
2nd January 2024
Economic growth in Singapore accelerated in Q4 but the economy is set to enter a period of renewed weakness in the near term as support from external demand fades while domestic demand remains weak. According to the advanced estimate published today, GDP …
Flat prices in December confirm 2023 resilience Unchanged house prices in December ensured that over the course of 2023 they fell by much less than forecasters had expected. With mortgage rates falling, it is increasingly likely that house prices avoid …
29th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. GDP will rebound this quarter While the November activity data were a mixed bag, they strongly suggest that the economy dodged a recession. Taking industrial production first, …
28th December 2023
