Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
All of the major house prices indices posted gains in November, which means that prices have risen by between 5.6% and 7.4% over the past year. Moreover, realtors and consumers have been revising up the gains they expect to see over the coming year. If …
4th February 2013
We’re expecting US house prices to rise by around 5% this year, but a closer look at the regional picture suggests that the gains will be most pronounced in the West. … West to lead house price growth in …
31st January 2013
The latest Fed statement offers little new, apart from a change in the resident hawk on the FOMC. We still expect QE to be maintained at $85bn per month until early 2014. … Fed swaps one hawk for …
The fact that the housing recovery is being driven principally by investor demand means that the slight decline in the homeownership rate in the fourth quarter is unlikely to be the last. … Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller …
29th January 2013
House prices and residential sales activity in New York City look set to underperform the wider US housing market over the next few years. Valuations in NYC are less favourable than elsewhere, the factors supporting recent strong levels of housing demand …
28th January 2013
It’s a disappointment that the level of new home sales in December was no higher than it was seven months earlier in May. But December’s new home sales report isn’t as bad as it first appears. … New Home Sales (Dec. …
25th January 2013
The number of existing home sales fell in December, but the underlying trend in sales remains upwards. Moreover, supply conditions are still very tight. … Existing Home Sales (Dec. …
22nd January 2013
December’s surge in housing starts tops off an encouraging year for homebuilders. Given how far below normal levels starts remain even now, we expect further strong gains during 2013. … Housing Starts (Dec. …
17th January 2013
The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau’s ability-to-repay rule, and within that its definition of a qualified mortgage, will not hamper the housing recovery. Mortgage-dependent buyers aren’t playing much of a role in the recovery for now anyway. But when …
16th January 2013
House prices rose again in November, both before and after applying seasonal adjustment. Consistent price increases throughout 2012 have started the process of lifting households out of negative equity, which will support home sales and refinancing …
15th January 2013
The 11th hour deal to avert the fiscal cliff included a one-year extension of the Mortgage Debt Relief Act. The Act, which frees homeowners from paying tax on forgiven mortgage principal, has become an important part of the housing recovery by helping to …
10th January 2013
The rise in home purchase mortgage applications in December took the run of increases to four months. Admittedly, they remain low by past standards. But at least these data add to the growing sense that a nascent recovery in the number of active …
2nd January 2013
Another strong gain took existing home sales above the five million mark, and to a three-year high, in November. Moreover, supply conditions tightened further and are consistent with house prices rising strongly in the early part of 2013. … Existing …
20th December 2012
The fall in housing starts in November should prove to be no more than a temporary set-back. The forward-looking indicators point to a decent rise in starts in December, and a continued underlying improvement during 2013. … Housing Starts (Nov. …
19th December 2012
Rebounding household formation will be a tailwind for the housing recovery. But with the overwhelming majority of newly forming households over the next few years set to rent rather than own their home, the rental sector will be the disproportionate …
13th December 2012
The typical guarantee fee charged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lenders rose to a high of 46 basis points in early December. Mortgage borrowers will soon see fees rise as a result, but this will not seriously dent the favourable level of housing …
11th December 2012
The housing recovery is building a real head of steam. We anticipate further strong gains in home sales and housing starts in 2013. At the national level, price gains are likely to match those seen this year. … Shifting up the …
6th December 2012
Mortgage applications for home purchase ticked up slightly in November and are now rising year-on-year. While the bigger picture is still that demand for purchase mortgages remains very subdued, this offers some hope that mortgage-dependent buyers will …
5th December 2012
Adjusting for the normal seasonal dip in house prices seen at this time of year, prices rose again in October. Therefore, the underlying trend in the CoreLogic measure of house prices is strongly upwards. … CoreLogic House Prices (Oct. …
4th December 2012
The housing recovery faces an array of headwinds, but we continue to think that it is sustainable. Although the recovery remains narrowly dependent on cash buyers and investors, outside of a few hotspots, there is little sign that investor appetite is …
29th November 2012
The small fall in new home sales in October, and the downward revision to September’s figures, mean that the recovery in new home sales is looking a little weaker than we were previously led to believe. Nevertheless, we expect activity in the new homes …
28th November 2012
The third successive quarterly rise in national house prices is additional evidence that housing is experiencing a sustainable upturn. The fundamentals of very favourable housing valuations and affordability argue for further price gains in 2013. … …
27th November 2012
The further rise in housing starts in October confirms that the previous month’s very strong gain was not an unsustainable surge. With housing starts rising by 41.9% over the past year, it’s clear that the homebuilding recovery is gathering a real head of …
20th November 2012
The improvement in existing home sales, which continued in October, is being driven by the very favourable level of housing valuations and affordability. The combination of rising demand and tight supply means that house price gains look set to continue. …
19th November 2012
The decline in mortgage delinquencies in the third quarter is another encouraging sign that the housing market is improving. In particular, it means that the shadow inventory of homes in imminent danger of coming onto the market is at a four year low. … …
15th November 2012
Conflicting signals make it hard to draw firm conclusions, but the balance of evidence increasingly suggests that mortgage-dependent buyers are starting to make more of a contribution to the housing recovery. … Is mortgage demand picking …
14th November 2012
After rising strongly in the early part of October, mortgage applications have since dropped steadily despite the very low level of mortgage interest rates. This suggests that tight lending criteria are continuing to act as a brake on the level of active …
7th November 2012
All of the small month-on-month fall in the CoreLogic house price index in September was down to predictable seasonal factors. After accounting for the usual slowdown at this time of year, house prices posted another gain. … CoreLogic House Prices …
6th November 2012
Having fallen briefly following the announcement of QE3, MBS yields and mortgage interest rates were rising again in the final weeks of October. Of course, the bigger picture remains that mortgage interest rates are extremely low. Moreover, last month …
5th November 2012
At face value, the decline in the spread of jumbo mortgage interest rates over the rates on conforming loans is one of a number of signs that restrictions on the availability of jumbo mortgages have loosened somewhat. Digging a little deeper, however, at …
1st November 2012
Even with the housing recovery well underway, the share of Americans who own their own home remains more or less at a 16-year low. This fact is a reminder that, to date, the recovery still owes a lot to investor demand. … Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & …
30th October 2012
The continued drop in the supply of distressed homes on the market is encouraging homebuilders to break ground on more sites. Admittedly, with a substantial overhang of properties still in the shadow inventory, distressed sellers are not about to become a …
25th October 2012
After the fireworks at the last FOMC meeting in mid-September, when the Fed launched an open-ended QE3 and strengthened its forward-looking guidance on leaving its policy rate at near-zero, the two-day meeting that ended today was a damp squib in …
24th October 2012
September’s rise in new home sales is another sign that homebuyers are becoming more willing and more able to splash out on a new home. … New Home Sales (Sep. …
Following August’s very strong rise, existing home sales predictably gave up a little ground in September. Nevertheless, the bigger picture remains that, driven by extremely favourable valuation and affordability metrics, existing home sales are on a …
19th October 2012
The election campaign has been frustratingly light on detail with regards to housing policy. Piecing together what we have, however, it looks like anyone expecting either candidates’ housing plan to make a dramatic difference to the course of the housing …
18th October 2012
In another sign that the improvement in the housing market is gathering pace, housing starts smashed the consensus expectation for a small gain and rose by a very strong 15% m/m. … Housing Starts …
17th October 2012
The price premium attached to new-builds has fallen over the past six months. Moreover, continued strong investor demand, which is bidding up prices among the lowest tier of existing homes, should see the new-build premium fall further over the …
10th October 2012
The announcement of the third round of quantitative easing, during which the Fed will buy $40bn of mortgage-backed securities per month until the outlook for the labour market improves ‘substantially’, initially led to a sharp drop in agency MBS yields. …
9th October 2012
Mortgage interest rates have fallen further in response to the third round of quantitative easing. This translated into stronger demand for mortgages in the closing weeks of September, both from refinancers and prospective homebuyers. … Mortgage …
3rd October 2012
The latest rise in house prices provides further evidence that the housing market is staging an encouraging, if still quite modest, recovery. Improving sales volumes and tight supply suggest that prices will continue rising into next year. … CoreLogic …
2nd October 2012
The housing crash has created the ideal conditions for institutions to invest in single-family rented housing. But this looks like a one-time opportunity. As house prices recover, so investor interest in single-family homes will fade. The upshot is that, …
1st October 2012
New home sales declined fractionally in August. However, with the new-build premium sharply lower and mortgage rates falling to record lows, we expect them to resume their upward trend before too long. … New Home Sales …
26th September 2012
The sixth successive monthly rise in house prices in July supports our view that, even with the broader economic recovery struggling to gain traction, the housing recovery is sustainable. … Case-Shiller House Prices …
25th September 2012
The homebuilding sector is recovering and we expect housing starts to post a decent year-on-year gain both this year and next. Nevertheless, a surge in starts on the scale implied by the NAHB homebuilder activity index seems unlikely. … NAHB index …
21st September 2012
Consistent with our view that the housing market is experiencing a sustainable recovery, today’s data releases showed a further improvement in housing activity. … Housing Starts & Existing Home Sales …
19th September 2012
Further MBS purchases by the Fed won’t engineer the same drop in mortgage interest rates that earlier rounds did, and with mortgage-dependent buyers playing a relatively marginal role in the housing recovery, any drop in rates won’t have a great effect …
14th September 2012
The Fed today announced an open-ended QE3 focused on MBS purchases and extended its conditional commitment to leave its policy rate at near-zero through mid-2015. There were numerous other tweaks to its communications strategy, most of which involved …
It’s obviously not good that 15% or more of all contracted home sales aren’t making it through to closing. But to the extent that the increase in the cancellation rate reflects would-be buyers’ desire to transact running ahead of banks’ willingness to …
13th September 2012
The combination of rising sales volumes and a dwindling inventory of homes for sale saw house prices rise again in the latest data. Depending on which of the major house price indices we look at, seasonally-adjusted prices have only failed to rise in at …
12th September 2012
