Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The Case-Shiller house price index posted one of its largest month-on-month rises so far in the recovery in April, and new home sales registered a solid increase in May. But while sales activity can continue rising at double-digit rates, the increase in …
25th June 2013
We expect the pace of house price gains to slow later this year and decelerate further in 2014. This will not signal the end of the US housing recovery, but a new phase in which house price growth is more closely aligned to earnings. … The pace of house …
24th June 2013
The number of existing home sales broke decisively above the five million mark in May, while the supply of existing homes for sale continued to creep upwards. … Existing Home Sales (May …
20th June 2013
In most advanced western economies the supply of labour is likely to be boosted by a rise in labour market participation during the coming year or two. This should help to prevent wage inflation picking up and thereby support the case for continued loose …
19th June 2013
The rise in housing starts in May was driven by a surge in multi-family starts and went some way to reversing April’s big drop. Despite some headwinds, starts are on track to increase further over the next few years. … Housing Starts (May …
18th June 2013
The rise in mortgage interest rates has the potential to generate a hiatus in housing sales and starts over the summer. At the margins, the rise also adds to the case for expecting the housing recovery to slow later this year. But mortgage rates are still …
13th June 2013
The latest readings from the CoreLogic and Case-Shiller house price indices show that prices have posted double-digit gains over the past year. But not all the past month’s housing news was so buoyant. Sales of both new and existing homes rose but the …
12th June 2013
The stronger-than-expected start to the year means that the risks to our house price forecasts have shifted to the upside. However, we think it is more likely than not that the pace of house price growth will ease in the second half of this year. So for …
7th June 2013
For all the talk of a renewed US housing bubble, today’s mortgage applications data are a reminder that the recovery remains highly dependent on loose monetary policy. … Mortgage Applications …
5th June 2013
House price gains of 12% per annum are clearly not sustainable. But in the short-term, news that the housing sector shows few signs of slowing will surely be something of a relief, following yesterday’s disappointing ISM data. … CoreLogic House Prices …
4th June 2013
The return of double-digit rates of house price inflation has grabbed most of the headlines in recent days. But equally significant are signs that sellers are returning to the market in force. We suspect that this trend is likely to be sustained. And a …
30th May 2013
In the first quarter, the annual rate of house price growth moved back into double-digit territory on each of the three main Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. These were the first double-digit readings since the final stages of the previous home price …
28th May 2013
Another rise in new home sales in March means that February’s unexpected dip has now been almost fully reversed. And with sales up by 29% over the past year, nearly double the 15% growth seen in the year to October, there are few signs that the US housing …
23rd May 2013
The underlying recovery in existing home sales continued in April. But the real news in today’s NAR release was the drop in distressed sales and the gain in the inventory of homes for sale. … Existing Home Sales (Apr. …
22nd May 2013
A dip in housing starts in April had been widely expected. Although the drop was much larger than the consensus forecast, other forward-looking indicators strongly suggest that April’s slump will be short-lived. … Housing Starts …
16th May 2013
Mortgage-dependent buyers have been unable to play the sort of role in this housing recovery that they have in previous cycles because mortgage credit conditions have remained tighter for longer. But there are signs that conditions are beginning to …
14th May 2013
The rise in mortgage delinquencies in Q1 is a reminder that it’s not all plain sailing for the housing recovery. But the gradual improvement in the labour market suggests that that the delinquency rate will resume its downward trend soon. … Mortgage …
9th May 2013
Behind the small decline in overall home sales in March were several pieces of good news. Sales of new homes rose, an increasing share of total home sales took place under non-distressed conditions, and mortgage demand improved. Finally, the increase in …
Mortgage applications for home purchase have risen in seven of the past eight months, including in the most recent data relating to April. Taken alongside the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey, there’s mounting evidence that mortgage-dependent …
8th May 2013
The further rise in house prices in March may prompt further concerns that prices are entering bubble territory. But a closer look suggests that it would take several more years of prices increasing at their current pace before the national market …
7th May 2013
Tight credit conditions and the backlog of foreclosures still to be worked through mean that the homeownership rate will slide lower over the next year or so. But with owner-occupation still the tenure of choice for the vast majority of Americans, expect …
2nd May 2013
The Fed's assessment of the economic outlook didn't change much in the statement issued today, but the FOMC nevertheless felt it necessary to flag up explicitly that the pace of asset purchases could, in the future, be increased or reduced. We still …
1st May 2013
Some 14 months after the trough in house prices, the homeownership rate is still declining. In other words, although there are some signs that conventional, mortgage-dependent buyers are playing more of a role in the housing recovery, investors remain the …
30th April 2013
After the weaker than expected existing home sales figures, the increase in new home sales in March comes as a bit of a relief. The rise was only slight, but the indications are that activity will post further gains later this year. … New Home Sales …
23rd April 2013
The small slide in existing home sales in March may add to concerns from some quarters that the housing recovery is hitting a soft patch. But look closely and there are a fair number of positives in today’s release as well. … Existing Home Sales (Mar. …
22nd April 2013
The homebuilding recovery is running into a number of constraints, prompting three consecutive monthly falls in the NAHB homebuilder confidence index. In a worst-case scenario, confidence could weaken further and housing starts could mark time. But by far …
19th April 2013
The big rise in starts in March should help to calm the nerves of those worrying that the homebuilding recovery is running out of steam. Starts will fall back next month and there are challenges further ahead, but ground should be broken on plenty more …
16th April 2013
We place significant emphasis on valuations in our analysis of residential property markets. So we cannot take issue with those who have recently pointed out that house price gains which are twice the pace of income or rental growth are not sustainable in …
12th April 2013
The inventory of new homes for sale has been rising for six months now, and in February the supply of existing homes for sale posted its first meaningful increase in two years. Admittedly, the 3.7% m/m rise, to 2.02m homes, could quickly be reversed. But …
10th April 2013
House prices rose in February, and based on short-term leading indicators they are set to post another gain in March. This supports our view that, during 2013 as a whole, prices will increase by around 8%. … CoreLogic House Prices (Feb. …
3rd April 2013
While the refinancing boom is coming off the boil, we’re optimistic that mortgage applications for home purchase are in the early stages of a sustainable comeback. … Mortgage Applications (Mar. …
House prices are rising at a quicker pace than rents, which is weighing on rental yields. But the reduction in yields is currently very gradual, while the total return from housing remains attractive. The upshot is that, taking the country as a whole, …
28th March 2013
House prices posted another solid gain at the start of 2013, with the geographical footprint of the recovery taking in yet more areas. … Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales …
26th March 2013
The increase in the number of existing home sales in February is more evidence that the housing recovery is continuing unabated. But the real news in this morning’s NAR numbers is the rise in the inventory of existing homes for sale. This may just be the …
21st March 2013
The Fed acknowledged in its statement today that the economy was again growing at a "moderate" pace and FOMC participants revised their forecasts for the unemployment rate slightly lower for 2014 and 2015. Nevertheless, the majority of participants still …
20th March 2013
Homebuilding volumes increased in February and, despite the homebuilder recovery coming up against a few snags, there’s good reason to think that the rebound in construction activity has much further to run. … Housing Starts …
19th March 2013
For the first time in four years households are withdrawing more cash from their homes than they are putting into them. Rather than being a temporary blip, we think that this marks the start of a sustained period of equity extraction. … Return of housing …
18th March 2013
Capacity constraints in lenders’ mortgage departments are one of the few remaining bottlenecks in the housing recovery and one of the factors contributing to the marginal role being played by mortgage-dependent buyers. Yet there may be reason for muted …
14th March 2013
At 2.07m, the inventory of homes for sale fell to its lowest level since 1994 in January, and is the sixth lowest level ever recorded in the 30-year history of the data. With home sales now at a normal level relative to the size of the population, this …
12th March 2013
Rebounding household formation and continued investor interest will help housing demand rise further this year. And while supply conditions will stop tightening, they will remain very tight. The upshot is that we have revised up our house price forecast …
7th March 2013
The increase in mortgage interest rates in February weighed on mortgage applications for home purchase and took some heat out of the refinancing boom. But rates are still very low and will continue to support the housing recovery for a while yet. … …
6th March 2013
House prices rose strongly at the start of 2013 and are likely to perform well across the year as a whole. This is set to be another tear-away year for the housing recovery. … CoreLogic House Prices (Jan. …
5th March 2013
House prices ended 2012 on a high note and new home sales got off to a very strong start in 2013. Put simply, the housing recovery continues to accelerate. … Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales …
26th February 2013
Rising house prices, more home sales, and a slight loosening in credit conditions should see housing equity withdrawal turn positive in 2013 or soon after. Nevertheless, the amount of equity extracted from the housing sector will remain low relative to …
25th February 2013
Together, the fall in foreclosure starts and the foreclosure inventory and the rise in the number of non-distressed home sales are encouraging signs of a housing market returning to health. … Mortgage Delinquencies & Existing Sales …
21st February 2013
January’s large drop in housing starts isn’t as bad as the headline numbers suggest. And with housing starts still significantly below normal levels, there is plenty of scope for strong gains later this year. … Housing Starts (Jan. …
20th February 2013
Concerns have been raised that some States are seeing unsustainable, investor-fuelled house price increases. However, we think that in most of these markets, the fundamentals are supportive of a sustained housing recovery, not just a temporary rebound. …
15th February 2013
Housing starts have risen by 37% over the past year, but new home sales have only increased by 9%. Rather than being a sign that speculative overbuilding has returned however, this gap reflects the fact that the starts numbers are picking up the strength …
11th February 2013
Mortgage applications for home purchase are still low by past standards, but at least they have been rising for five months now. That’s an encouraging sign that mortgage-dependent buyers are starting to play more of a role in the housing recovery. … …
6th February 2013
The US housing recovery showed no signs of slowing in the final stages of 2012. And the early signs are that these gains will be extended throughout 2013 as the economy continues its recovery. … CoreLogic House Prices (Dec. …
5th February 2013
