Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Price growth cools, but only gradually The only small gain in house prices in September suggests that house price growth slowed as the stamp duty holiday was withdrawn. But with inventory limited and demand resilient, we suspect that house price growth …
30th September 2021
Increase in mortgage size another sign of resilient demand While still above pre-COVID-19 levels mortgage approvals edged down in August, suggesting no great rush to move before the stamp duty holiday taper ends at the end of September. But an increase in …
29th September 2021
It is an under-statement to say that house prices have weathered the pandemic well; housing markets are positively booming. Yet the drivers of this rise in prices are rather different to those of the pre-2007 housing boom, meaning that we do not seem to …
28th September 2021
A jump in deposit sizes has been a key driver of the rise in house prices over the past 18 months. While saving is now dropping back, households have built up a large stock of cash assets which will prevent a rapid reversal in deposit size. While not …
27th September 2021
The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are unlikely to be severe or lasting. For property investors, …
23rd September 2021
There is no doubt that demand cooled after the stamp duty discount was reduced. But a collapse in new listings has eclipsed the decline in new buyer demand, suggesting that prices will at least hold their ground in Q4 when stamp duty returns to normal. …
21st September 2021
The end of the stamp duty holiday may do little to dampen demand and homes for sale are in short supply. The upshot is that house price growth will remain strong into next year, so we have revised up our forecast for house price growth in 2022 from 3% to …
16th September 2021
Surge in home moving pushes lending up to post-financial crisis high The further surge in mortgage lending to a fresh post-financial-crisis high and booming house prices begs the question whether there is over-exuberance in the housing market. But as the …
14th September 2021
Prices and transactions expected to remain buoyant While demand continued to soften in August limited stock on the market points to house price inflation remaining high in the near term. And despite the end of the stamp duty holiday, surveyors expect …
9th September 2021
Shrugging off the stamp duty holiday taper While annual house price inflation cooled from 7.6% to 7.1% in August according to Halifax, the solid gain in house prices on the month confirms that the housing market is weathering the winding down of the stamp …
7th September 2021
Materials shortages restrain activity The further easing in the construction PMI in August was due to materials shortages rather than any softening in demand. The drop in the headline construction PMI from 58.7 in July to 55.2 in August suggested that, …
6th September 2021
While the furlough scheme was critical in preventing the COVID-19 recession from dragging down house prices, we don’t think that the withdrawal of the scheme poses much of a risk. Meanwhile, the latest data show the end of the repossessions ban and …
2nd September 2021
Surprise August rise highlights resilience to end of stamp duty holiday The unexpectedly large rise in house prices in August is yet another reason to think that house price growth will shrug off the end of the stamp duty holiday. It also suggests our …
1st September 2021
Approvals decline as tax break winds down Mortgage approvals continued to fall back in July as the stamp duty holiday was tapered, but they remained above pre-COVID-19 levels. Timely indicators suggest that demand will be resilient even when the tax break …
31st August 2021
The housing market cooled in July as the stamp duty holiday began to unwind. Newly agreed sales and buyer enquiries dropped back, annual house price growth began to stabilise, and transactions fell. However, the RICS balances compare activity to the …
25th August 2021
New plans have extended Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) on commercial property, allowing swifter conversion to residential use. These have been cautiously welcomed, but, in our view, they do not radically shift the outlook for either residential or …
18th August 2021
While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) became more hawkish at its August meeting, an increase in interest rates on the scale it expects would not undermine house prices. But more stubborn inflation than anticipated and a hike in Bank Rate to 1.5% by …
16th August 2021
Limited stock supports prices as demand cools Despite new buyer enquiries dropping back in July, house prices continued to rise as buyers competed for limited stock. Sales volumes eased in July as the stamp duty holiday began to be phased out. (See Table …
12th August 2021
Recovery in July, but further slowdown still expected Halifax house prices returned to growth on a monthly last month, partly reversing a weak June figure. But the underlying trend, as the stamp duty discount is phased out, is for a modest slowdown. …
6th August 2021
Construction PMI dips, but underlying demand strong July’s construction PMI figure was slightly disappointing compared with the previous month’s highs. But it continued to point to robust activity and we think any dip is most likely a reflection of …
5th August 2021
Overview – There are already signs that the end of the stamp duty holiday will take some heat out of the housing market, with house price inflation set to cool from 10% to 7% by the end of the year. But as we think that the tax break was just one of …
2nd August 2021
Rush for stamp duty relief drives borrowing to record high A surge in borrowing ahead of the tapering of the stamp duty holiday in July saw new mortgage lending set a fresh record high. Meanwhile, robust mortgage approvals pointed to activity remaining …
29th July 2021
House prices lose a little momentum The drop back in the Nationwide house price inflation in July suggests that the tapering of the stamp duty holiday has taken a little heat out of the market. But as the tax break was just one of many factors that have …
28th July 2021
It is inevitable that transactions will drop sharply after setting a record high in June. But the stamp duty holiday is just one of several factors behind the housing market boom, so house prices should prove resilient to the end of the tax break. The …
21st July 2021
Overview – Our forecast that COVID-19 won’t significantly reduce potential supply means that the economy can run a bit hotter for longer without generating the persistent rise in inflation that would require monetary policy to be tightened. Admittedly, …
20th July 2021
Easing lending conditions to support house prices A further easing of concerns about the outlook for property prices and the economy suggests that mortgage lending conditions will continue to improve. That will help ensure that house prices are resilient …
15th July 2021
While London rents are set to reverse some of the fall of the past year, we doubt the premium of rents in the capital over the national average will return to its pre-virus level. But outside London rental growth is set to accelerate sharply. London …
13th July 2021
Market set to remain tight as stamp duty holiday ends Activity and house prices were extremely strong again in June according to the RICS survey, although there was a distinct softening in the more forward-looking balances. As supply remains limited, we …
8th July 2021
Signs of market softening as stamp duty holiday winds down While we would be wary of reading too much into the small decline in house prices in June reported by Halifax, timely measures of house prices are consistent in pointing to a moderation in house …
7th July 2021
Construction booming despite difficulty sourcing materials Despite a further deterioration in the availability of building materials, construction output rose at the fastest pace since 1997 in June. That suggests output in the sector is now well above …
6th July 2021
London house prices have underperformed the national average over the past year as the pandemic has led to a shift in demand away from inner cities. Arguably London was due a period of weaker price growth even before the pandemic hit, following the …
2nd July 2021
Mortgage lending remains strong The tick up in mortgage approvals for house purchase in May left them 33% above pre-virus norms, and timely indicators suggest that mortgage lending will remain robust despite the looming end of the stamp duty holiday. The …
29th June 2021
House price growth peaks at a 17-year high House prices recorded a fifth consecutive monthly rise in June, the final month before the stamp duty threshold begins to return to its usual level. There are few signs of market dynamics changing dramatically as …
Inflation in the cost of construction materials has soared as resurgent new home development led to strong demand at the same time as supply was still recovering from disruption due to the pandemic. It is likely to peak soon as supply disruptions ease, …
24th June 2021
The housing market has had its busiest start to the year for 14 years as changing preferences due to the pandemic, forced saving, low mortgage rates, and the stamp duty holiday have led swathes of existing homeowners to enter the market. We estimate that …
17th June 2021
The early evidence suggests that the end of the evictions moratorium will not result in a huge wave of evictions. And while the end of the furlough scheme presents a risk, we suspect that the easing of restrictions will have allowed the economy to recover …
11th June 2021
Looming end of tax break yet to bite The looming end of the stamp duty holiday has only applied the slightest dab to the brakes of the housing market thus far. But while the new buyer enquiries started to ease, sales instructions fell more sharply …
10th June 2021
Mortgage boom reflects home mover demand rather than generous lending The rise in mortgage lending to its highest level since the financial crisis in Q1 was driven by a huge increase in existing homeowners moving. As a result, the 9% y/y increase in house …
8th June 2021
Stamp duty extension ushers in further house price gains House prices recorded another large increase in May as the extension to the stamp duty holiday continued to turbocharge house purchase demand. Timely indicators show that the end of the tax break is …
7th June 2021
High materials prices fail to stifle strong activity Construction output rose further above pre-virus levels in May despite growing shortages of contractors and materials, and high cost inflation. The rise in the headline construction PMI from 61.6 in …
4th June 2021
Pick-up in approvals after stamp duty deadline extended Mortgage approvals for house purchase rose for the first time since November in April as prospective buyers responded to the extension of the stamp duty holiday. But even before that modest increase, …
2nd June 2021
Prices continue to surge The boost to demand from the extension to the stamp duty holiday caused annual house price inflation to hit a seven-year high in May, and it is set to rise further in June. Thereafter, the end of the tax break should cause house …
1st June 2021
House-price-to-earnings ratios are close to record highs even in regions where there isn’t a shortage of supply. But the varying cost of rent across the country suggests that limited supply is an important reason why house prices are even higher in the …
26th May 2021
Overview – House price growth is on track to reach double figures in the summer before cooling as the stamp duty holiday ends. But with mortgage rates very low, the economy recovering rapidly and households still sitting on a large stock of savings built …
14th May 2021
Demand-supply mismatch intensifies Extremely high demand and limited supply pushed up house prices sharply in April. The market will undoubtedly cool as the rush to buy during the stamp duty holiday eases. But with mortgage rates low and the economy …
13th May 2021
House prices get a second wind A renewed surge in house prices following the extension of the stamp duty holiday drove annual growth in the Halifax house price index up to a five-year high in April. Demand remains very strong, so house prices are likely …
10th May 2021
Construction activity stays strong, though growing signs of cost pressures Strong demand for new projects brought further growth in output during April, according to the latest construction PMIs. But there is also growing evidence of cost pressures, …
7th May 2021
Mortgage advances set record ahead of original stamp duty deadline The surge in mortgage advances to an all-time high in March reflected the rise in housing transaction volumes to their highest level on record in the same month. Meanwhile, despite the …
4th May 2021
Stamp duty extension provides renewed impetus House prices regained momentum in April following the extension to the stamp duty holiday. As a result, an acceleration in annual house price growth into double digits over the summer is now all but …
30th April 2021
All four previous recessions in the UK led to a sharp slowdown or an outright fall in house prices. (See Chart 1.) But 2020 was very different, with house price growth accelerating to a six-year high despite the largest collapse in output for 100 years. …
28th April 2021
