Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Our current forecasts envisage that the relatively tight market conditions in the South will result in the North/South house price gap widening by around 5% to 6% this year. But if we are right in thinking that labour markets across the country will be …
20th March 2012
Mortgage credit conditions did not loosen materially in the final quarter of last year, suggesting that without the temporary support to housing market activity from the stamp duty holiday, mortgage lending would be considerably weaker. … FSA Mortgage …
13th March 2012
The rise in activity generated by the approaching end of the stamp duty holiday appears to have boosted house price expectations. Whether this is sustained or not is likely to depend on whether the recent improvement in the economic and labour market data …
The rise in demand in recent months appears to have had little impact on house prices. And transactions are likely to drop once the stamp duty holiday ends later this month. With consumer confidence at rock-bottom levels, and unemployment and mortgage …
7th March 2012
Today’s RICS survey shows a significant drop in the pace of residential rental growth and thus seems to support our view that affordability constraints in the sector are beginning to bite. … RICS Lettings Survey …
The increases in mortgage interest rates highlighted by the press this week are fairly small, are coming off a very low base and will affect a limited number of borrowers. But they should not be dismissed lightly, not least because banks may not be done …
6th March 2012
On its own, the latest dip in house prices is nothing to be too concerned about. But with mortgage interest rates edging up again and unemployment still rising, the downward trend in prices is likely to become entrenched this year. … Halifax House …
Following falls in December and January, the modest rise in the Nationwide house price index in February is symptomatic of a market that is still struggling for direction. Given that prices are still at historically high levels relative to incomes, a …
1st March 2012
Mortgage approvals are being driven higher by the looming end of the first-time buyer stamp duty holiday and are likely to fall back sharply come April. Thereafter, rising unemployment and falling consumer confidence will conspire to keep mortgage …
29th February 2012
Given other house price reports already in, January’s jump in the Land Registry house price index was a little surprising. However, given the volatility of the monthly data and the fact that December’s figures were revised lower, we would be wary of …
28th February 2012
Mortgage approvals for house purchase made by the major banks hit a two-year high in January. But unless they are mirrored in the more comprehensive Bank of England data released next week, they may simply be a sign that the larger lenders are gaining …
23rd February 2012
Recent growth in the number of Chinese buyers in the London residential market has raised hopes (or fears) that as and when the renminbi becomes fully convertible the floodgates could open. However, currency controls appear to be less of an obstacle to …
21st February 2012
Data released last week confirmed the downward trend in mortgage arrears and possessions. The popular perception is that both have benefitted from low interest rates and the relatively benign labour market. But our calculations suggest that lender …
15th February 2012
Housing sales may be receiving a moderate boost from the looming expiry of the latest stamp duty holiday in March. But today’s RICS survey showed that buyer enquiries dropped back in January. This suggests that, in line with past experience, any boost to …
14th February 2012
The squeeze on real pay is finally easing. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to prevent a further drop in real consumer spending this year. However, it should lay the foundation for a recovery to start in 2013. … Squeeze on real pay to ease this …
13th February 2012
Mortgage arrears and possessions declined in the final quarter of last year and were at their lowest level for four years in 2011 as a whole. But it is difficult to envisage a repeat performance in 2012. … Mortgage Arrears and Possessions …
9th February 2012
Buy-to-let was a bright spot within a subdued mortgage market last year. But activity ground to a halt in the fourth quarter – a reminder that landlords are not immune to the fears of a double-dip recession and the slump in confidence that was seen in the …
The latest rise in the Halifax house price index does little to detract from the underlying downward trend on this measure. And given rising unemployment and the fact that valuation metrics suggest that house prices remain unsustainably high, a moderate …
6th February 2012
Most of the housing market activity and price data were little changed this month. That could be setting the tone for a year of subdued demand and static house prices. But with the economy poised to drop back into recession, the clear risk is that the …
2nd February 2012
It is still too early to tell whether the latest fall in the Nationwide house price index is confirmation of a renewed downward trend. However, given that the economy is already contracting, unemployment is rising and consumer confidence remains low, it …
1st February 2012
With the economy now contracting again and further job losses to come, it was perhaps not surprising that the recovery in mortgage approvals seems to have run out of steam. … Mortgage Lending …
31st January 2012
Flat house prices at the national level concealed the usual wide variation in regional house price movements in December. However, with unemployment set to rise everywhere, including London, we expect house prices to resume their downward trend over the …
30th January 2012
In aggregate, December’s rise in the BBA measure of mortgage approvals only made up around half of last month’s fall. And given the prospect of tighter credit conditions and a renewed recession, the chance of a substantial recovery in mortgage approvals …
25th January 2012
A few local hot-spots aside, 2011 was not a great year for UK property markets. But the signs are that 2012 will be worse. Activity will remain weak and both commercial and residential property prices are likely to fall by at least 5%. If events in the …
At first glance, the resilience of buyer enquiries in the closing stages of 2011 is encouraging news for the housing market. Yet we are inclined to place more weight on reports that mortgage demand fell sharply in the fourth quarter. Indeed, we think that …
19th January 2012
House prices remain overvalued on most measures. This suggests that there is ample scope for tighter mortgage credit conditions and rising unemployment to push average house prices lower during 2012. Yet at the same time, interest rates will remain very …
11th January 2012
The latest RICS housing market survey indicated that house prices are likely to remain broadly stable in the first few months of 2012. However, according to the balance of price and sales expectations, surveyors do not expect this stability to last. … …
10th January 2012
Today’s data from Halifax show that house prices fell in four of the final five months of 2011. With the economy set to re-enter recession and the recent rise in unemployment having much further to run, further price falls in 2012 look more than likely. … …
6th January 2012
The housing market continues to look fragile. Against the backdrop of rising unemployment and a new recession, we do not expect activity levels to improve next year. As a result, we think further house price falls are more likely than not. … Another …
5th January 2012
Today’s Credit Conditions Survey showed that the supply of residential mortgage finance continues to improve slowly. But with lenders now tightening credit scoring criteria again, this is less positive than it initially seems. In the commercial property …
The latest mortgage lending figures confirm that housing market activity remains subdued. That is unlikely to change while rising unemployment and low consumer confidence depress the demand for mortgages and the deterioration in wholesale funding …
4th January 2012
There was little in today’s lending data to suggest that mortgage approvals are likely to break out of their recent narrow range any time soon. And with both the economy and the wholesale mortgage funding environment deteriorating, 2012 is likely to be …
23rd December 2011
There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro-zone recession. But once another tough year or two have …
There has been a marked reduction in the number of empty homes since the housing market crash first hit, driven by a decline in the number of long-term empties. To our minds, that suggests that the speculative overconsumption of housing by some households …
21st December 2011
The FSA’s proposals to put a revised affordability test at the centre of the mortgage underwriting process will not dampen materially further the flow of mortgage credit from today’s subdued levels. But the affordability test should prevent underwriting …
19th December 2011
FSA data released this morning suggest that credit conditions are acting as a brake on housing activity and therefore are probably putting downwards pressure on house prices. Consistent with that, the CLG house price index reported a 0.6%m/m fall in …
13th December 2011
The latest RICS Housing Market Survey reported a slight moderation in the pace of house price falls in November. Yet the stock of unsold properties neared a threeyear high this month, suggesting that buyer confidence remains very fragile. … RICS Housing …
A rise in supply and an easing in the pace of tenant demand growth led to a softening in rental value growth in the three months to October. That trend is likely to continue as affordability constraints in the sector bite and the recession boosts the …
7th December 2011
One explanation for why house prices have remained fairly well supported over the past year or two is that rental yields look attractive compared to the alternatives. Yet the track record of such rules of thumb as a predictor of house prices is poor, …
This month’s fall in the Halifax house price index was hardly a surprise given other recent, downbeat economic news. And with the labour market weakening rapidly and the economy on the brink of recession, the downside risks to house prices have …
6th December 2011
Buyer demand improved on a number of measures this month. However, with the chance of a new recession in the UK mounting by the day, we do not expect activity levels to improve significantly next year. With that in mind, the significant downside risks to …
5th December 2011
The Nationwide house price index remains surprisingly resilient in the face of falling confidence and weak mortgage demand. But with the labour market now deteriorating rapidly, the balance of risks around the house price outlook are heavily skewed to the …
29th November 2011
Today’s data from the Land Registry show that house prices in London fell for the second consecutive month. While those falls could yet be reversed, the drop in London prices seems consistent with the mounting concern over job losses in the financial …
28th November 2011
For a time at least, rising house prices can be a virtuous circle, as equity gains provide the support for further house price growth. But if house prices fall, equity is destroyed while debt remains unchanged, potentially exacerbating the downward …
24th November 2011
October’s rise in mortgage approvals reversed a large part of last month’s fall. But with the impact of the substantial deterioration in the labour market yet to have fed through fully to housing market activity, it is unlikely that this month’s increase …
23rd November 2011
With the painful squeeze on real incomes set to continue, consumer spending will fall significantly further. We continue to expect real spending to contract by a further 2% or so by the end of 2012. But an escalation of the euro-zone crisis could lead to …
21st November 2011
The proposal to protect lenders against the risk of fresh falls in house prices should help to boost the supply of low-deposit mortgages next year. But it is far from clear that the overall supply of mortgage finance will rise as a result. Given that …
Popular perception dictates that City jobs are a crucial driver of London’s housing market. Yet there have been at least two previous occasions when significant City redundancies did not trigger house price falls. That said, there are good reasons to …
18th November 2011
By allowing buyers to bridge the substantial gap between house prices and earnings, the recovery in average income multiples on mortgage lending towards their pre-recession highs has almost certainly lent support to house prices. However, even if …
16th November 2011
