Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
This month’s fall in the Halifax house price index was hardly a surprise given other recent, downbeat economic news. And with the labour market weakening rapidly and the economy on the brink of recession, the downside risks to house prices have …
6th December 2011
Buyer demand improved on a number of measures this month. However, with the chance of a new recession in the UK mounting by the day, we do not expect activity levels to improve significantly next year. With that in mind, the significant downside risks to …
5th December 2011
The Nationwide house price index remains surprisingly resilient in the face of falling confidence and weak mortgage demand. But with the labour market now deteriorating rapidly, the balance of risks around the house price outlook are heavily skewed to the …
29th November 2011
Today’s data from the Land Registry show that house prices in London fell for the second consecutive month. While those falls could yet be reversed, the drop in London prices seems consistent with the mounting concern over job losses in the financial …
28th November 2011
For a time at least, rising house prices can be a virtuous circle, as equity gains provide the support for further house price growth. But if house prices fall, equity is destroyed while debt remains unchanged, potentially exacerbating the downward …
24th November 2011
October’s rise in mortgage approvals reversed a large part of last month’s fall. But with the impact of the substantial deterioration in the labour market yet to have fed through fully to housing market activity, it is unlikely that this month’s increase …
23rd November 2011
With the painful squeeze on real incomes set to continue, consumer spending will fall significantly further. We continue to expect real spending to contract by a further 2% or so by the end of 2012. But an escalation of the euro-zone crisis could lead to …
21st November 2011
The proposal to protect lenders against the risk of fresh falls in house prices should help to boost the supply of low-deposit mortgages next year. But it is far from clear that the overall supply of mortgage finance will rise as a result. Given that …
Popular perception dictates that City jobs are a crucial driver of London’s housing market. Yet there have been at least two previous occasions when significant City redundancies did not trigger house price falls. That said, there are good reasons to …
18th November 2011
By allowing buyers to bridge the substantial gap between house prices and earnings, the recovery in average income multiples on mortgage lending towards their pre-recession highs has almost certainly lent support to house prices. However, even if …
16th November 2011
The continued fall in the Land Registry’s measure of house prices is in contrast to the stability reported by the other main indices. Nevertheless, it sits comfortably with recent reports of large-scale jobs losses and falling disposable incomes. … Land …
On the face of it, the decline in mortgage arrears and the fact that the number of possessions rose only marginally are encouraging. However, against the backdrop of rising unemployment and falling real wages, it is too soon to assume that we are past the …
10th November 2011
The buy-to-let sector increased its share of total mortgage advances again in the third quarter. While that is a trend that probably has further to run, we don’t think that lending to the sector can escape signs of renewed economic weakness unscathed. … …
The latest RICS Housing Market Survey pointed to a marginal improvement in some activity measures this month. But there was nothing in the survey to suggest that the gradual decline in house prices seen outside the capital is likely to ease in the near …
8th November 2011
The latest rise in house prices in October adds to the evidence that a lack of properties for sale is supporting prices. However, if the recent signs of a fresh downturn in the labour market are extended, that support is likely to weaken over the next few …
7th November 2011
The majority of buyer demand measures deteriorated this month. With surveys suggesting that economic activity declined further in the early weeks of the fourth quarter, a recovery in the housing market remains a distant prospect. If anything, the data …
4th November 2011
Successive policymakers, of whom the Housing Minister is the latest, have called for greater use of long-term fixed rate mortgages in the UK. The argument goes that long-term fixed rate mortgages reduce volatility in the housing market and open up new …
1st November 2011
The latest rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices is further confirmation that, for now, subdued demand for housing is being offset by a lack of properties for sale. But we suspect that house prices will start to fall again next year. … …
Today’s fall in mortgage approvals is consistent with other evidence that household finances are under strain and confidence is very weak. It looks as though the modest recovery in mortgage lending seen over the summer has now come to an end. … Mortgage …
31st October 2011
London has been reliant on a handful of the most expensive boroughs to deliver positive house price growth over the past year. To our minds, that leaves house prices in the capital looking susceptible to a number of possible external shocks. … Is …
29th October 2011
With few bright spots in the wider economic recovery, the marginal pace of house price falls recorded in September is only likely to increase moving into next year. … Land Registry Repeat Sales Index …
The deepening crisis in the euro-zone is likely to have major adverse effects on the UK. We now expect the economy to stagnate in 2012, with a high chance of a technical recession. But a rapid escalation of the euro-zone crisis could prompt a slump to …
28th October 2011
It is too early to tell whether the latest fall in the BBA mortgage approval numbers is the beginning of a renewed downward trend. However, against the gloomy economic outlook and difficult conditions in the wholesale funding market, we expect both …
26th October 2011
Our forecasts already envisage that the pace of house price falls will increase next year. With most of the recent downgrade to our economic forecasts accounted for by the deteriorating prospects for net trade, we are not inclined to lower our house price …
21st October 2011
Yesterday’s report by Rightmove illustrated the huge North/South divide in average asking prices. But the fact that this North/South split is notable by its absence from the transactions data suggests that high asking prices in the South are based on …
19th October 2011
The euro-zone debt crisis is likely to have severe adverse effects on the UK economy at a time when domestic contractionary forces are building. We now expect UK GDP growth to slow from about 0.8% this year to around zero in 2012, with a high chance of a …
18th October 2011
House prices are likely to end 2011 in line with, or marginally lower than, last year. That will do little to alleviate the extent to which housing is overvalued. Against this backdrop, and with the economic outlook characterised by weak growth and …
13th October 2011
The RICS Housing Market Survey suggests that the market remained in limbo in September. In particular, there was nothing in the survey to provide hope that the recent rise in mortgage approvals was more than a blip in an otherwise flat trend, or that the …
12th October 2011
The latest fall in the Halifax house price index seems to echo recent downbeat news on the economy. While low interest rates make judging the timing difficult, the gloomy economic outlook suggests that house prices still have some way to fall. … Halifax …
7th October 2011
August’s rise in mortgage approvals may boost hopes that the housing market will enjoy a stronger end to the year. However, the bleak labour market outlook and the increasing concerns about a relapse into recession all suggest that the market will remain …
5th October 2011
Mortgage lending has strengthened in recent months. But strains from the crisis in the euro-zone are now showing through in UK lenders’ funding costs, giving another reason not to expect a fully-fledged recovery in mortgage lending any time soon. … Can …
4th October 2011
The unexpectedly strong rise in mortgage approvals, combined with a marginal rise in the Nationwide house price index, might suggest that the risk of further house price falls is receding. But, in our view, the increasingly fragile economic outlook still …
30th September 2011
House prices softened in August. But the market appears to be becoming increasingly polarised along regional lines. London still looks reasonably resilient for now, whereas northern regions are experiencing sharp falls in prices. … Land Registry Repeat …
29th September 2011
Today’s Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey suggested that the near-term outlook for residential property lending, if anything, may be slightly more positive than in the commercial property sector. But with the economic recovery now faltering, we …
Previous experience suggests that a 20-40% increase in transactions in the final months of the stamp duty holiday is possible. However, given that only first-time-buyers (FTBs) are eligible for the relief and the darkening economic outlook, we expect a …
28th September 2011
The BBA measure of mortgage approvals rose to a 15-month high in August. But given the weak outlook for growth and employment and still tight credit conditions, the chances that this will mark the start of a sustained recovery are negligible. … BBA …
24th September 2011
To judge by much of the commentary surrounding the plight of “generation rent” you might conclude that anyone who can buy should do so immediately or risk being frozen out of the market. Yet even if house prices do not fall, as we expect, over the next …
20th September 2011
Credit conditions may have held broadly stable in Q2, but while the availability of mortgage lending is this tight, the influence on housing market activity and prices is still downwards. … FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics …
14th September 2011
The latest RICS housing market survey pointed to the return of buyer caution in August, as sales dropped to their lowest level in over two years. London remained the exception to the rule, with house prices in the capital posting another rise. … RICS …
With all of the house price data relating to August released so far reporting month-on-month falls, the evidence of renewed weakness in prices is building. Admittedly, it is too early to draw firm conclusions. But with the economic recovery stalling, we …
8th September 2011
Taken at face value, the seven year decline in house prices expressed in gold might suggest that, relative to the precious metal, house prices are now ripe to recover. Yet in reality, we don’t think that the house price-to-gold ratio tells us much of any …
7th September 2011
Despite rising unemployment and an increase in inflation, buyer demand seemed to improve on some measures this month. However, against historical norms, housing market activity remains at a very subdued level and we believe that further price falls in the …
6th September 2011
August’s drop in average house prices may be little more than noise in the broadly flat trend seen in recent months. But with the recovery faltering and consumer confidence weakening it could also signal the start of a renewed period of house price falls. …
2nd September 2011
Rental demand remained healthy in the three months to July. But there was tentative evidence that high rents may be beginning to take their toll. In any event, surveyors have become slightly less optimistic about future rental value growth. … RICS …
1st September 2011
The latest rise in mortgage lending may be a response to the increasingly competitive mortgage interest rates available to some borrowers in recent months. However, demand still remains depressed against historical norms. And with the economic outlook …
31st August 2011
July’s rise in house prices is the largest month-on-month rise since early 2010. However, prices remain well below pre-crisis levels. Moreover, with the squeeze on household finances set to continue, further falls in prices lie ahead. … Land Registry …
27th August 2011
July’s rise in mortgage approvals extends to three months the period over which mortgage market activity has been on the increase. But with the economic recovery hitting the buffers, this is unlikely the mark the start of a sustained upturn in mortgage …
24th August 2011
Over the next five years, favourable margins and low rates of payment problems mean that lenders will be able and willing to meet landlords’ growing demand for buy-to-let mortgages. Hence, a lack of buy-to-let lending should not prove a constraint on the …
20th August 2011
If the recent pattern of flat house prices and modest income growth were to continue, it would take over a decade for the house-price-to-earnings (HPE) ratio to return to its long-run average. However, such a long period of stable prices would be …
16th August 2011
Buy-to-let (BTL) lending bounced back in Q2 from the first quarter’s dip. However, lending is still very subdued compared to pre-recession levels and, in view of the faltering economic recovery, the short term outlook for BTL mortgage demand is hard to …
12th August 2011
