Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
The official house price index recorded a modest drop in house prices in July, immediately following the referendum, consistent with our forecast that house price inflation will slow sharply during the second half of the year. … Official House Price Index …
13th September 2016
Today’s rebound in the RICS survey data suggest that the post-referendum housing market malaise is wearing off. But with the majority of the survey’s measures still weak, the market is still some distance from a return to normal. … RICS Residential Market …
8th September 2016
There are increasing signs that the initial post-referendum shock has begun to recede. With buyer numbers still falling and confidence still shaky, the weakness in transactions will last for several months yet, while house price growth will continue to …
7th September 2016
Today’s data from the Halifax point to a minor post-referendum dip in house prices. But with the economic data increasingly pointing away from a full-blown recession and interest rates set to stay low for the foreseeable future, a correction in house …
The rebound in the construction PMI, and, in particular, the housebuilding component, is a welcome development. But on its own, it will not prevent housebuilding from taking a backwards step in the second half of the year. … Construction PMI does not …
2nd September 2016
While data from Nationwide point to resilient house price growth in August, leading indicators suggest that this won’t last. Indeed, with house price expectations muted and the economy set to weaken, we think house price growth will slow over the …
31st August 2016
Mortgage lending cooled in July, as the referendum hurt buyer confidence. Uncertainty has lifted somewhat since. But buyers will stay cautious as the economic backdrop softens, helping to keep lending muted through to the end of the year. … Mortgage …
30th August 2016
The growth rate of private residential rents has slowed in recent months, driven primarily by London. We think this is a sign that affordability constraints are starting to bite in the capital. But there is little reason to think that a sustained slowdown …
26th August 2016
While early post-referendum indicators of consumer spending have been fairly upbeat, spending growth is still set to slow following the vote to leave the EU. Labour market conditions are likely to deteriorate and rising inflation will undermine real wage …
25th August 2016
Mortgage approvals for house purchase weakened in July, as the effect of the Brexit vote knocked confidence. And while buyer sentiment has partially rebounded, lending is set to stay weak until the end of the year as the economic backdrop softens and …
24th August 2016
With the referendum having knocked confidence, survey measures pointing to slowing economic activity and buyer numbers having fallen for six months in a row, London’s housing market is cooling. We think activity in the capital will fall over the remainder …
19th August 2016
Today’s data point to solid house price growth ahead of the referendum. And while London lost the top spot, price growth there still recorded double-digit gains. Yet with prices already high, and the referendum having knocked confidence, we don’t expect …
16th August 2016
Lower interest rates will do little to help frustrated first-time buyers get onto the housing ladder. But they will ensure that the income returns offered by BTL investments continue to be relatively attractive. As a result, we think investor demand for …
12th August 2016
July’s RICS survey suggests that the initial shock that followed the referendum eased a little over the month. But with most readings still in negative territory, the data are signalling a slowdown in house price growth and a fall in transactions. … RICS …
11th August 2016
Mortgage advances for house purchase picked up strongly in June. But with most of the data reflecting transactions agreed pre-referendum, these figures do not give a clean bill of health to the post-Brexit vote mortgage market. … CML Lending Trends (2016 …
10th August 2016
The first set of post-referendum housing market data is consistent with our expectations of a slump in transactions over the next 6 to 12 months. That said, while the picture painted by the main house indices has been benign, the collapse in house price …
5th August 2016
Today’s Halifax index painted a mixed picture for the post-referendum house price reaction. But taking a wider view, there are plenty of signs that house price inflation is set to slow markedly over the next few months. … Halifax House Prices …
Today’s measures from the MPC met our expectations. And while mortgage interest rates are now likely to fall a little further, uncertainty amongst buyers means that this is unlikely to give lending volumes and transactions a material boost. … Will the MPC …
4th August 2016
A lot has changed since our previous Analyst. Distortions relating to the stamp duty surcharge alongside a weakening economic backdrop kicked the housing market into a lower gear earlier in Q2. And the referendum result has added to that downward …
2nd August 2016
Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in June, in part down to the referendum and lingering effects of the stamp duty surcharge. And with the fall in new buyer enquiries unlikely to reverse soon, we think lending could weaken a little more in the …
29th July 2016
Data from Nationwide suggest that house price growth held broadly steady in the first month after Brexit. But the nature of the data, as well as the fact that other indicators are consistent with house price growth slowing over the remainder of the year, …
28th July 2016
Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in June, as uncertainty, both in the run-up to the referendum and in its aftermath, weighed on demand. And the post-Brexit data we’ve seen so far is consistent with mortgage approvals falling a little more by the …
26th July 2016
The data so far on housing market activity and prices are broadly to our expectations, pointing to a fall in transactions but no collapse in prices. Yet with data from this morning reporting a sharp drop in both house price sentiment and UK PMIs, the …
22nd July 2016
The UK’s vote to leave the European Union has plunged the country into a period of almost unprecedented uncertainty. But we remain a bit less pessimistic than some others over the economic impact. So while we have pulled down our growth forecasts, we are …
19th July 2016
The annual rate of house price growth held firm in May. And while house price growth in London is still running strong, survey data suggest that price growth in the capital will cool sharply over the remainder of the year. … Official UK House Price Index …
June’s RICS survey saw several key indicators fall to post-crisis lows, and was broadly consistent with our view that Brexit will drive down housing market activity and cool the rate of house price growth … RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun …
14th July 2016
It will be several weeks before we start to get hard data on how the housing market has reacted to the EU referendum outcome. Even then, the initial data may lend themselves to many different interpretations. So it will probably be September or …
13th July 2016
Lenders reported a small drop in secured credit availability to households in the second quarter. But the availability of debt for commercial property fell sharply, and the outlook for Q3 looks equally negative. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey …
The movements in housebuilder share prices in the past two weeks could be a sign that a slump in house price expectations is about to trigger a fresh house price correction. But if we are right, and the economy avoids a recession and a sharp rise in …
12th July 2016
The Halifax index reported a solid rise in house prices in May. But with the quarterly rate of growth having more than halved over the last few months, today’s data suggest that house price growth had already lost much of its momentum ahead of the EU …
7th July 2016
Today’s data paint a picture of a relatively subdued housing market in the run up to the referendum. Unfortunately, it will be several months before we get a clear picture of how the tangible sense of shock has affected demand and prices. … Nationwide …
29th June 2016
Mortgage approvals partly reversed April’s post-stamp duty slump in May. But with the near-term economic outlook weakened by the Brexit vote, and uncertainty now set to persist, we expect growth in approvals to be sluggish for some time. … BBA Mortgage …
24th June 2016
The electorate’s vote to take the UK out the European Union presents another potential headwind to a housing market already labouring under worryingly high prices. But if we are right that the economy will not fall back into recession, transactions not …
Media reports suggest that Chinese investors are increasingly targeting Manchester residential property. With capital appreciation set to slow markedly over the coming years, that makes sense, as rental yields in Manchester are higher than those in the …
21st June 2016
The new official UK house price index reported that house price inflation slowed a touch in April. And a new breakdown of the data showed that price pressures were strongest for newbuild homes and those purchased with a mortgage rather than cash. … …
14th June 2016
The detailed mortgage lending statistics released by the Bank of England today confirm the surge in activity amongst BTL landlords ahead of the recent stamp duty changes. Yet more significant, perhaps, were the tentative signs that lenders are again …
This morning’s RICS data report that April’s slump in new buyers and sellers deepened in May. This is consistent with our view that house price growth will slow markedly over the course of 2016. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
9th June 2016
A combination of better input data, more detailed outputs and methodological tweaks should, in principle, make the new official UK house price index the definitive measure. But greater coverage and insights will come at the cost of a slower release cycle. …
8th June 2016
Today’s data from the Halifax show that April’s drop in house price growth was partially reversed in May. But looking at the bigger picture, with house prices still growing far faster than wages, we expect house price inflation to cool much further by …
7th June 2016
Interpreting the latest housing market data has been complicated by the Chancellor’s stamp duty intervention. But the most recent data from the Nationwide and Halifax lend some support to our view that prices are approaching their limit, and that house …
3rd June 2016
April’s drop in mortgage approvals was an expected response to the recent changes in stamp duty for additional homes and it gives us little new information. But the further easing in the Nationwide measure of house price inflation is consistent with our …
1st June 2016
Materials and labour constraints may have reduced housing starts in England by as much as 5.5% per year since 2013 – equivalent to a cumulative total of around 24,000 homes. But with production constraints seemingly easing, we expect some of that lost …
27th May 2016
BBA mortgage data show a temporary slump in lending in April, following the stamp duty surcharge coming into force. And while housing starts fell in Q1, easing production constraints suggest that this won’t mark the start of a trend. … BBA Mortgage …
26th May 2016
New buyer enquiries in London fell sharply in both March and April, as did house price expectations. With house prices already very high, the data point to a sharp slowdown in price growth and activity in the coming months. This is consistent with our …
20th May 2016
April’s RICS data showed that London’s new buyer enquiries balance fell to its second lowest level on record. History, however, suggests that on its own, the slump in buyer demand is more likely to result in house price inflation slowing sharply, rather …
16th May 2016
New buyer enquiries fell into negative territory for the first time in over a year in April, as the higher rate of stamp duty for additional homes came into force. And the effects of the new tax appear to have been most keenly felt in London. … RICS …
12th May 2016
The relatively subdued level of new lettings instructions is a reminder that, despite its high profile in recent quarters, BTL lending is only one measure of the health of the private rented sector, and an imperfect one at that. For now at least, other …
11th May 2016
House prices fell in April according to the Halifax index. And with economic sentiment cooling, house prices high and demand growth slowing, we see house price growth softening further over the remainder of 2016. … Halifax House Prices …
9th May 2016
This month’s data provided evidence of the extent to which buyers have brought forward purchases ahead of the stamp duty surcharge. And given the size of the boost to activity, transactions may be particularly muted in the coming few months. However, …
6th May 2016
Consumers face a tougher year than last, with Brexit uncertainty mounting, austerity increasing and inflation rising. Nonetheless, strong levels of confidence and a resilient labour market should prevent consumer spending growth from slowing too …
4th May 2016
