Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
A combination of better input data, more detailed outputs and methodological tweaks should, in principle, make the new official UK house price index the definitive measure. But greater coverage and insights will come at the cost of a slower release cycle. …
8th June 2016
Today’s data from the Halifax show that April’s drop in house price growth was partially reversed in May. But looking at the bigger picture, with house prices still growing far faster than wages, we expect house price inflation to cool much further by …
7th June 2016
Interpreting the latest housing market data has been complicated by the Chancellor’s stamp duty intervention. But the most recent data from the Nationwide and Halifax lend some support to our view that prices are approaching their limit, and that house …
3rd June 2016
April’s drop in mortgage approvals was an expected response to the recent changes in stamp duty for additional homes and it gives us little new information. But the further easing in the Nationwide measure of house price inflation is consistent with our …
1st June 2016
Materials and labour constraints may have reduced housing starts in England by as much as 5.5% per year since 2013 – equivalent to a cumulative total of around 24,000 homes. But with production constraints seemingly easing, we expect some of that lost …
27th May 2016
BBA mortgage data show a temporary slump in lending in April, following the stamp duty surcharge coming into force. And while housing starts fell in Q1, easing production constraints suggest that this won’t mark the start of a trend. … BBA Mortgage …
26th May 2016
New buyer enquiries in London fell sharply in both March and April, as did house price expectations. With house prices already very high, the data point to a sharp slowdown in price growth and activity in the coming months. This is consistent with our …
20th May 2016
April’s RICS data showed that London’s new buyer enquiries balance fell to its second lowest level on record. History, however, suggests that on its own, the slump in buyer demand is more likely to result in house price inflation slowing sharply, rather …
16th May 2016
New buyer enquiries fell into negative territory for the first time in over a year in April, as the higher rate of stamp duty for additional homes came into force. And the effects of the new tax appear to have been most keenly felt in London. … RICS …
12th May 2016
The relatively subdued level of new lettings instructions is a reminder that, despite its high profile in recent quarters, BTL lending is only one measure of the health of the private rented sector, and an imperfect one at that. For now at least, other …
11th May 2016
House prices fell in April according to the Halifax index. And with economic sentiment cooling, house prices high and demand growth slowing, we see house price growth softening further over the remainder of 2016. … Halifax House Prices …
9th May 2016
This month’s data provided evidence of the extent to which buyers have brought forward purchases ahead of the stamp duty surcharge. And given the size of the boost to activity, transactions may be particularly muted in the coming few months. However, …
6th May 2016
Consumers face a tougher year than last, with Brexit uncertainty mounting, austerity increasing and inflation rising. Nonetheless, strong levels of confidence and a resilient labour market should prevent consumer spending growth from slowing too …
4th May 2016
Mortgage approvals for house purchase dipped a little in March, as the number of new buyers seeking to transact ahead of the stamp-duty surcharge tailed off. But gross lending surged, as those BTL and second home buyers already holding approvals …
29th April 2016
House price growth in April slowed according to the Nationwide index, while the Land Registry’s data showed a month-on-month fall in prices during March. With the economic outlook more subdued and house prices already high, we expect price growth to …
28th April 2016
The number of house purchase mortgage approvals in the BBA data for high street banks fell in March. That said, with economic conditions still broadly supportive and interest rates at record lows, we expect to see a gradual pick-up in the number of …
26th April 2016
It is possible that an out vote in the EU referendum could push up mortgage interest rates. But if it did, we suspect any rise would be modest and that the drivers of that rise would not be those outlined by the Chancellor. … Would Brexit raise mortgage …
21st April 2016
House price inflation has strengthened a little since our previous Analyst . But the economy has lost a little momentum and forward-looking demand indicators, such as buyer enquiries, are easing. Against that backdrop we have not altered our non-consensus …
20th April 2016
Today’s survey data from RICS confirms that the boost to activity generated by April’s stamp duty deadline has peaked. And with the stamp duty deadline now passed, activity should moderate and price growth should start to cool. … RICS Residential Market …
14th April 2016
Lenders reported a small drop in credit availability to the residential sector in the first quarter of 2016, although they expect this to be temporary. Similarly, lenders are also displaying a degree of short-term caution in the commercial sector. … Bank …
13th April 2016
Although the EU referendum is less than three months away, its impact on the economy has so far been relatively modest. And if the UK votes to stay, activity could subsequently rebound. Admittedly, GDP growth is still unlikely to better last year’s 2.3% …
11th April 2016
Buyers seeking to transact ahead of April’s stamp duty deadline appear to have lifted housing market activity. And there are signs of a modest reaction from prices too. But from April onwards, those upward pressures should quickly drop off. We expect the …
8th April 2016
According to the Halifax index, house price inflation move back in to double-digit territory last month. But the data are something of an outlier, with most other sources pointing to a rate of inflation that is between 6% and 7%. … Halifax House Prices …
7th April 2016
Mortgage approvals for house purchase dipped in February. This is further evidence suggesting that the surge in activity ahead of the introduction of a stamp duty surcharge on additional homes has already peaked. … Mortgage Lending …
31st March 2016
House price growth slowed in February – further evidence that the surge in buyer activity ahead of the introduction of the stamp duty surcharge in April has had little effect on prices so far. … Land Registry Repeat Sales Index …
30th March 2016
Mortgage approvals for house purchase among the BBA’s group of high street banks cooled in February. This adds to a growing body of evidence that investors’ rush to transact ahead of April’s stamp duty deadline may already have peaked. … BBA Mortgage …
24th March 2016
An out vote in June’s EU referendum could lead to some short-term softening in activity levels and price pressures in the housing market. It could also present another medium-term headwind to raising the supply of housing. But suggestions that Brexit will …
21st March 2016
Since the turn of the year, market jitters have made longer-term wholesale bank funding more expensive. But cheap short-term funds may prevent a sharp rise in deposit rates, and therefore keep funding costs in check for now. That said, if we are right …
15th March 2016
The new buyer enquiries balance dipped a little in February – a tentative sign that the surge of buyers ahead of April’s stamp duty deadline may have already peaked. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
10th March 2016
Loan to income ratios rose again in the final quarter of 2015, as the high level of house prices forced buyers to take on larger debts. But with the path for interest rates looking much shallower than a few months ago, the immediate risk to the market …
8th March 2016
Nationwide recorded a small rise in house prices during February, while the Halifax recorded a sizable dip. This suggests that the rush to transact ahead of the stamp duty surcharge has not yet had a meaningful effect on house price growth. … Nationwide …
3rd March 2016
Mortgage approvals picked up in January, as buyers rush to transact before the stamp duty surcharge comes into force. But once the April deadline passes, we expect the upward pressure on approvals will cool. … Mortgage Lending …
29th February 2016
According to the Land Registry, house price growth saw a sizable jump in January. But there is only limited evidence that house prices are responding to the influx of landlord buyers seeking to avoid incoming higher rates of stamp duty. … Land Registry …
26th February 2016
Schemes designed to unblock stalled sites or provide discounted homes for first-time buyers are unlikely to transform the UK’s housing supply. Meanwhile, BTL tax reform and the Help to Buy ISA are likely to offset any boost to demand stemming from London …
25th February 2016
Housing starts picked up in the final quarter of 2015. And while demand for newbuilds appears healthy, lingering labour shortages are likely to prevent housing starts from taking off this year. … Housebuilding …
Today’s BBA data recorded a sharp rise in mortgage approvals for house purchase. This points to a mortgage market that is heating up, as landlords and second home owners rush to transact before the stamp duty surcharge comes into force. … BBA Mortgage …
24th February 2016
Outer London has been outshining the previously stronger central London boroughs. Transactions volumes there have stabilised, while house price growth has been racing ahead. But rapid price growth is eroding the gap between the two areas, meaning that …
18th February 2016
The boost to consumers’ spending power from low energy prices is set to fade this year. What’s more, households face a big fiscal squeeze. And with unemployment nearing its natural rate, there is less scope for strong growth in employment to drive …
12th February 2016
This month’s RICS survey showed new buyer enquiries and new sales instructions picking up for a second month in a row. It seems increasingly likely that the first quarter of the year will see a temporary jump in activity, as landlords respond to the …
11th February 2016
There are some grounds to think that survey measures of the number of homes for sale may be being distorted by an increase in the total number of estate agent branches. That said, even after adjusting for this effect, the data point to a historically low …
9th February 2016
With transactions rising further during the month, activity in the market does seem to be warming up. Coupled with record low interest rates and growing competition between banks, transactions should climb at a gradual pace over the remainder of 2016. But …
4th February 2016
The Halifax index recorded another strong monthly rise in house prices in January. But with house prices already high, we think that the current rate of growth won’t be sustained for much longer. … Halifax House Prices …
Despite the BBA reporting a drop in mortgage approvals for house purchase among the major high street banks last week, a stronger performance by smaller lenders meant that total approvals for house purchase edged up a touch in December. … Mortgage Lending …
1st February 2016
In terms of its direct impact on a buyer’s monthly outlays, London Help to Buy appears to be a significantly more generous subsidy than the original equity loan scheme that it supplements. But in other important ways it is notably less generous. On …
House price growth accelerated in December, with the southern regions of the UK continuing to lead the pack. But the latest drop in transactions growth may be a sign that the current pick-up in house price inflation won’t last. … Land Registry Repeat …
29th January 2016
There are signs that house prices are approaching the limit of what the current level of incomes and mortgage lending terms can sustainably support. As a result, we believe that the next few years will almost certainly see the recovery in the housing …
28th January 2016
Nationwide recorded slower house price growth in January, while BBA mortgage approvals for house purchase fell for a second consecutive month. But if many buy to let landlords rush to transact before the new stamp duty surcharge comes into force, the rest …
27th January 2016
Falling oil prices and growing uncertainty about the global economic outlook point to a lacklustre year for prime central London housing. Indeed, having already slowed sharply, prices in the most expensive parts of the capital will struggle to do more …
22nd January 2016
December’s RICS survey recorded the first rise in homes coming onto the market in nearly a year. But buyer numbers picked up too, and stock per surveyor fell during the month, meaning that the bigger picture is little changed. … RICS Residential Market …
21st January 2016
The recent easing in buyer demand suggests house prices are approaching a ceiling. We envisage house price inflation falling to 2% in 2016 and 2017 – giving wages a chance to start catching up with the house price gains already seen. This easing of price …
15th January 2016
