Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Housing starts bounced back in Q4, rising by 5.2% q/q. That seems consistent with reports that demand for newbuild homes is rising. Yet the wider housing market still looks fragile and builders are constrained by labour and materials shortages. On …
22nd March 2018
According to the Official UK House Price Index, house price pressures continued to ease in the early stages of the year. As a result, the data confirmed the picture already painted by the more timely indices such as the Nationwide and Halifax. In turn, …
20th March 2018
Conditions in London’s housing market are deteriorating – buyer demand is weakening, rents are falling and housing transactions continue to soften. With prices very high and signs that landlords in the capital are increasingly seeking to trim their …
15th March 2018
While still true at the national level, London can no longer be characterised as a sellers’ market. An apparent shift in attitudes among sellers, combined with lower buyer numbers has sharply altered the balance of power. Experience suggests that this …
13th March 2018
The housing market slowdown intensified in February. And with interest rates now starting to rise, price growth and transactions are unlikely to see meaningful gains over the remainder of the year. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
8th March 2018
Following dip in the wake of November’s interest rate rise, transactions and mortgage approvals bounced back in January. However, buyer enquiries fell and house price expectations were subdued. As a result, the underlying picture – of a stagnant or gently …
7th March 2018
The Halifax’s headline rate of annual house price growth slipped to below 2% in February. And with house prices very high relative to incomes and interest rates now starting to rise, house price inflation is likely to stay close to current rates over the …
While household spending growth slowed markedly in 2017, the outlook for 2018 and beyond looks brighter. Indeed, the worst of the real pay squeeze appears to have passed. Following a peak of 3.1% in November 2017, CPI inflation has started to fall back …
1st March 2018
Mortgage approvals bounced back in January, reversing the drop in activity seen in the immediate aftermath of November’s rate hike. But with the Nationwide measure of house price inflation at a six month low in February, the lending data do not signal any …
January’s surge in mortgage approvals is not the sign of the market springing back to life, but simply a reversal of the distortions caused by November’s rate hike. The outlook for lending this year is therefore still subdued. … UK Finance Mortgage …
26th February 2018
The Term Funding Scheme did little to lower mortgage pricing, and its withdrawal could pass with little discernible effect. But by boosting lenders’ marginal funding costs, the end of the TFS does raise the upside risks around our forecasts for mortgage …
23rd February 2018
November’s rate rise has not been passed on in full to mortgage borrowers. But with swap rates up by 50bps over the last 9 months and banks’ funding costs rising, future rate hikes should elicit a stronger response. Indeed, we expect mortgage rates to top …
21st February 2018
Affordability for renters in the capital is close to a record low. This has already put a dent in tenant demand, causing rents to stagnate last year. There may be some signs that rental supply is starting to respond. But given the softening in demand …
15th February 2018
Having barely slowed in 2017, contrary to predictions of a substantial negative impact from the Brexit vote, we think that the economy will defy renewed expectations of a slowdown this year. Amid strong global growth and low interest rates, net trade and …
13th February 2018
House price growth was slow and steady last year, with London seeing the most notable slowdown. With prices in the capital so high, we think London will continue to underperform. … UK House Price Index …
Housing market activity weakened in January, as high house prices continued to depress buyer demand. Indeed, with newly agreed sales still falling, buyers and sellers appear to be in a stand-off – with neither side willing to accept the others’ terms of …
8th February 2018
2017 ended with no sign of a revival in the housing market. Indeed, coming on top of already high prices and subdued house price expectations, the rate hike led to a sharp dip in mortgage approvals. That is consistent with our view that a revival in house …
7th February 2018
House price inflation cooled to 2.2% on the Halifax index. And with interest rates starting to rise and real wages still falling, we think house price growth will hold at this level throughout 2018. … Halifax House Prices …
The rise in the newbuild premium over the past two years appears to be driven by Help-to-Buy and the boost to the demand for new homes it has created. This suggests that the scheme is more generous than it needs to be. … Why is the newbuild premium …
2nd February 2018
The Nationwide measure of house price inflation edged up to 3.2% in January. But with prices high and the activity data weakening, there are few reasons to expect accelerating house price growth in 2018. … Nationwide House Prices …
1st February 2018
The price gains of recent years have left housing looking expensive and commercial property looking fully-valued. The good news is that interest rate rises on the scale that we anticipate are unlikely to be enough to push either market into a major …
31st January 2018
Mortgage approvals slumped in December, supporting our view that the sharp easing in house price pressures seen over the last year is here to stay. … Mortgage Lending …
30th January 2018
Both remortgaging and house purchase lending fell sharply in December, marking a downbeat end to 2017. But there is little evidence to suggest these falls are the start of a sharp downward trend. … UK Finance Mortgage Lending …
25th January 2018
Recent changes to the official HPI are a step in the right direction. But the reliability of the provisional estimates of the index, particularly the newbuild component, still leave something to be desired. … Has the official HPI been …
22nd January 2018
There were few signs in December’s RICS survey that the housing market slowdown is about to end. Both new buyer enquiries and new sales instructions fell. And the decline in newly agreed sales is consistent with steady or falling mortgage approvals in Q1. …
18th January 2018
The official index recorded house price growth of 5.1% y/y in November – faster than the other indices. But, consistent with elsewhere, prices in London performed the worst of all the regions. … UK House Price Index …
16th January 2018
Our forecast for an improving economic backdrop will come hand-in-hand with rising interest rates. As a result, improving real wages and sentiment will be countered by higher mortgage costs. That will keep house price growth below 3% per year in both 2018 …
15th January 2018
Mortgage credit availability edged up in Q4, while the supply of credit for commercial property held steady. But while conditions for households are expected to improve further in Q1, commercial lenders expect to pull back in the coming months. … Bank of …
11th January 2018
Annual house price growth ended 2017 at 2.7% – broadly in line with our forecast. With house prices very high relative to incomes and interest rates due to rise further this year, we think house price inflation will stay sluggish across 2018. … Halifax …
8th January 2018
The past month has brought no evidence that the current housing market soft patch is coming to an end. Mortgage approvals are down compared to a year ago, while house price growth remains at low single digit rates. On the one hand, with the economic …
5th January 2018
While mortgage approvals edged up in November, lending nonetheless remains weaker than a year ago. Meanwhile, house price growth stayed sluggish in December – at a level that is in line with our expectations. … Mortgage Lending and Nationwide House …
4th January 2018
London’s housing market is stuck in neutral, as high prices and tumbling house price expectations drive buyers away from the market. Looking ahead, with those buyers who are still active already at the limit of what they can borrow, and many others priced …
21st December 2017
Housing starts dropped for the second consecutive quarter in Q3 2017, suggesting that the weakness of the wider market may be starting to take its toll on the housebuilding recovery. … Housebuilding …
19th December 2017
With demand and agreed sales still falling, there is little hope of a revival in the housing market before the end of the year. But with the economic backdrop set to improve, a gentle recovery in transactions can be expected in 2018. … RICS Residential …
14th December 2017
Slowing house price growth should reduce the upward pressure on average mortgage duration. Yet looking ahead, the share of borrowers taking out longer loans may nonetheless grow, thanks to the combined effects of mortgage regulation and a rising interest …
13th December 2017
House price growth cooled according to the official house price index. And a fall in the number of buyers with high LTI loans supports our view that house price growth will remain subdued. … UK House Price Index (Oct.) and MLAR statistics …
12th December 2017
While the headline rate slowed, some shorter-term comparisons imply that house prices may be gaining renewed momentum. But gains on the other main indices remain more muted. And rising interest rates, combined with already high prices, suggest that a …
7th December 2017
The housing market remains in the doldrums, and there are few signs that this will change soon. Indeed, leading indicators such as the new buyer enquiries and newly agreed sales balances point to deteriorating conditions in the coming months. Yet, with …
6th December 2017
Neither the stronger economic recovery that we anticipate, nor the cuts to Stamp Duty Land Tax for first time buyers announced in the Budget are likely to reinvigorate the housing market next year. Instead, the already high level of house prices, combined …
5th December 2017
The rise in inflation, primarily driven by sterling’s post-referendum slide, has taken its toll on consumer spending growth this year. However, we think that the worst of the real pay squeeze has probably now passed. With consumer confidence still solid, …
1st December 2017
House price inflation in November was unchanged, at 2.5% y/y. And with buyer demand weakening and mortgage approvals having fallen for a third consecutive month, house price growth is set to hold at low, single-digit rates for the foreseeable future. … …
30th November 2017
Lending for house purchase fell for a third consecutive month in October. But remortgaging surged, as owners rushed to refinance ahead of November’s interest rate hike. … Mortgage Lending …
29th November 2017
Over the last two years, London has seen a sharp rise in the number of new homes delivered through the conversion of offices to homes. But the sweet spot for such developments seems to have passed, implying that their contribution to supply is now likely …
28th November 2017
House purchase mortgage approvals fell back in October. But the data show that remortgaging surged, as existing borrowers rushed to lock in record low rates ahead of November’s rate rise. … UK Finance Mortgage Lending …
24th November 2017
Any hopes that the Chancellor would come up with a new and innovative approach to boosting the UK’s housing supply in today’s Budget were soundly disappointed. In fact, on the issue of planning reform and fresh measures to boost supply, the Chancellor did …
22nd November 2017
The low interest rate environment has driven buyers to purchase more expensive kinds of homes than they would have done 10 years ago. That helps to explain why buyer leverage is higher than 10 years ago, despite the house price to income ratio being …
16th November 2017
House price inflation accelerated in September. But initial estimates on the official index tend to be revised down in later months. And with house prices high, as well as few signs of a revival in buyer demand, we expect house price growth to remain …
14th November 2017
Falling buyer interest and newly agreed sales point to further near-term weakness in housing market activity. That said, with the economic backdrop showing signs of improvement, mortgage approvals and transactions may start to make up some lost ground in …
9th November 2017
According to the Halifax index, house price growth accelerated in October. But the other indices recorded more modest gains. With prices already very high and interest rates starting to rise, we expect house price growth to stay in the low-single digits. …
7th November 2017
There were few signs of a renewal in either house price growth or transactions ahead of this month’s rate hike. That said, with the economic backdrop improving, a gentle revival in housing market activity is now more likely. But with prices very high and …
6th November 2017
