Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
The housing market remains in the doldrums, and there are few signs that this will change soon. Indeed, leading indicators such as the new buyer enquiries and newly agreed sales balances point to deteriorating conditions in the coming months. Yet, with …
6th December 2017
Neither the stronger economic recovery that we anticipate, nor the cuts to Stamp Duty Land Tax for first time buyers announced in the Budget are likely to reinvigorate the housing market next year. Instead, the already high level of house prices, combined …
5th December 2017
The rise in inflation, primarily driven by sterling’s post-referendum slide, has taken its toll on consumer spending growth this year. However, we think that the worst of the real pay squeeze has probably now passed. With consumer confidence still solid, …
1st December 2017
House price inflation in November was unchanged, at 2.5% y/y. And with buyer demand weakening and mortgage approvals having fallen for a third consecutive month, house price growth is set to hold at low, single-digit rates for the foreseeable future. … …
30th November 2017
Lending for house purchase fell for a third consecutive month in October. But remortgaging surged, as owners rushed to refinance ahead of November’s interest rate hike. … Mortgage Lending …
29th November 2017
Over the last two years, London has seen a sharp rise in the number of new homes delivered through the conversion of offices to homes. But the sweet spot for such developments seems to have passed, implying that their contribution to supply is now likely …
28th November 2017
House purchase mortgage approvals fell back in October. But the data show that remortgaging surged, as existing borrowers rushed to lock in record low rates ahead of November’s rate rise. … UK Finance Mortgage Lending …
24th November 2017
Any hopes that the Chancellor would come up with a new and innovative approach to boosting the UK’s housing supply in today’s Budget were soundly disappointed. In fact, on the issue of planning reform and fresh measures to boost supply, the Chancellor did …
22nd November 2017
The low interest rate environment has driven buyers to purchase more expensive kinds of homes than they would have done 10 years ago. That helps to explain why buyer leverage is higher than 10 years ago, despite the house price to income ratio being …
16th November 2017
House price inflation accelerated in September. But initial estimates on the official index tend to be revised down in later months. And with house prices high, as well as few signs of a revival in buyer demand, we expect house price growth to remain …
14th November 2017
Falling buyer interest and newly agreed sales point to further near-term weakness in housing market activity. That said, with the economic backdrop showing signs of improvement, mortgage approvals and transactions may start to make up some lost ground in …
9th November 2017
According to the Halifax index, house price growth accelerated in October. But the other indices recorded more modest gains. With prices already very high and interest rates starting to rise, we expect house price growth to stay in the low-single digits. …
7th November 2017
There were few signs of a renewal in either house price growth or transactions ahead of this month’s rate hike. That said, with the economic backdrop improving, a gentle revival in housing market activity is now more likely. But with prices very high and …
6th November 2017
Today’s rise in Bank Rate is likely to be passed on to borrowers in full and in fairly short order. Admittedly, thanks to the popularity of fixed rate mortgages in recent years, many borrowers will not see an immediate rise in their monthly payments. Even …
2nd November 2017
House prices are growing at low single-digit rates. With house prices already high, a rate hike imminent and banks looking increasingly cautious, we think price growth will stay around 2% in 2018. … Nationwide House Prices …
1st November 2017
Mortgage lending edged downwards for a second consecutive month in September. This has partly been driven by the muted economic backdrop. But stalling house price growth and expectations of a rate rise have also led to risk averse behaviour from banks. … …
30th October 2017
Borrowers in London pay, on average, lower mortgage interest rates compared to the rest of the country. This reflects regional differences in LTV, as well as the fact that rapid house price growth has priced out all but the most affluent buyers in the …
26th October 2017
Mortgage approvals have held broadly steady for the last two months. And with a November rate rise looking increasingly likely and banks having shown signs of pulling back on riskier lending, mortgage approvals will struggle to make meaningful gains over …
25th October 2017
Changes in the number of surveyors, seller behaviour and the rise of online agents mean that the fall in homes for sale may be overstated. Our analysis suggests that while the number of homes for sale is low, it is no lower than the levels seen two years …
20th October 2017
The current softness in housing market activity is a sign that house prices have reached the limit of what current incomes and credit conditions can sustain. Given our forecasts for the economy and the labour market, we do not expect interest rate rises …
18th October 2017
Consumers appear to be riding out the real pay squeeze well, supporting our view that spending growth will remain subdued, rather than collapse. And it shouldn’t be too long before the inflationary effect of sterling’s fall fades, putting consumer …
The official house price index continues to report house price growth that is rather stronger than the other main indices. But the further slowdown in London house price inflation, which led the market on the way up, is one reason to expect this index to …
17th October 2017
Mortgage credit availability rose in Q3, but banks appear to have retreated from the provision of riskier home loans. And credit availability to commercial property was broadly flat on the year. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey …
12th October 2017
With the fall in buyer enquiries accelerating, newly agreed sales falling sharply and a fresh slide in surveyors’ expectations, the RICS survey points to an extended slowdown in the housing market. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
House price growth accelerated on the Halifax index. But this is at odds with the softer picture reported by the other main indices. Regardless, with real wages being eroded, house prices already so high and interest rates set to rise soon, we expect …
6th October 2017
With new buyer enquiries stalling and last month’s jump in mortgage approvals proving to be a one-off, the housing market remains in the doldrums. On the one hand, it is somewhat reassuring that households’ finances look better than previously thought. …
5th October 2017
Mortgage approvals fell back in August and their sustained weakness is taking its toll on house price inflation, which has more than halved since the turn of the year. … Mortgage Lending/Nationwide House Prices …
29th September 2017
Mortgage rates are set to move back above 3% by the end of 2019. On its own, a rise in mortgage interest rates on that scale is unlikely to trigger another downturn in house prices. But it will act as a brake on any recovery in mortgage lending and …
28th September 2017
The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase posted a marginal rise in August, adding to the impression that the falls seen in the first half of the year have now run their course. But the rise was too small to raise hopes that approvals are about …
26th September 2017
Buyer enquiries showed no signs of life in August. That, and the fact that newly agreed sales continued to fall, dampens the prospect of a more rapid recovery in activity over the next few months. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
14th September 2017
House price inflation held flat in July, while rental growth slowed. And while the lending data suggest that the share of high LTI loans ticked up in Q2, a fresh surge in high LTI lending is unlikely. … UK House Price Index (Jul.) and MLAR statistics …
12th September 2017
While annual house price inflation picked up touch in August, the big picture is one of stagnation. Looking ahead, with borrower leverage already high and real wages grinding lower, there is little prospect of revival in house price growth over the …
7th September 2017
Last month brought some signs that the dip in mortgage approvals and transactions seen during the first six months of 2017, may have come to an end. But house prices are high in relation to incomes, buyers still seemingly cautious and there is a limited …
4th September 2017
July’s jump in the number of mortgages approved for house purchase reversed nearly all of the falls seen in the first half of the year. As such, they lend weight to the signs, evident in last week’s UK Finance figures, that the recent softness in mortgage …
30th August 2017
The easing in mortgage demand seen over the first half of the year is weighing on average house prices. According to Nationwide, prices have risen by just 2.1% over the past year, and have fallen in four of the past six months. … Nationwide House Prices …
29th August 2017
While consumer spending growth has lost pace in the face of the ongoing real pay squeeze, talk of a collapse in spending is overdone. With inflation set to fall back next year as the impact of the drop in the pound fades and a modest acceleration in wage …
London’s economy has not escaped the national slowdown, and high house prices are also weighing on demand. There have been tentative signs of renewed price growth in central London, but it is too soon to call an inflexion point in the market. Indeed, with …
25th August 2017
Today’s data offer some tenative evidnce that the recent slowdown in mortage lending may have run its course. And the fact that housing starts held up well in the second quarter suggests that housebuilders are also fairly confident about the medium-term …
24th August 2017
House price growth in prime central London appears strong, but that mostly reflects gains seen in late 2016. Indeed, much like the UK as a whole, activity and price growth in the prime boroughs have been stagnant over the last few months. … Are house …
17th August 2017
House price growth slowed a touch in June, as lending to all types of buyers fell. Looking ahead, with house prices already very high and inflation eroding real earnings, we expect the stagnation in house prices to continue. … UK House Price Index (Jun.) …
15th August 2017
Demand fell a little slower in July compared to the previous month. But with both newly agreed sales and new sales instructions declining, there are few signs that the stagnation in the housing market is near an end. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
10th August 2017
With buyer enquiries falling, house price growth slowing and mortgage approvals showing few signs of life, the housing market slowdown is showing few signs of easing. What’s more, long-term expectations of both prices and sales have started to come down – …
8th August 2017
The headline rate of annual house price growth decelerated to just 2.1% in July. And with buyer enquiries falling, all signs point to house price growth staying weak over the remainder of the year. … Halifax House Prices …
7th August 2017
The factors holding back remortgaging are unlikely to give way soon, meaning that recent gains probably aren’t the start of a fresh surge in activity. That said, with so many borrowers sitting on unfavourable rates, a gentle rise in remortgaging can be …
3rd August 2017
Annual house price growth edged downward in July. With houses already very expensive, new buyer enquiries falling and transactions stagnating, we expect house price inflation to stay in the low single digits this year and the next. … Nationwide House …
1st August 2017
Mortgage approvals for house purchase edged down in June. That said, with unemployment so low, the economy set to fare better in H2 and a rate rise still some way off, approvals should see a gentle recovery by the end of the year. … Mortgage Lending …
31st July 2017
Mortgage approvals among the high street banks stagnated in June. But while weaker economic growth and falling buyer enquires mean the near-term outlook is subdued, there is scope for a gentle improvement in lending by the end of 2017. … UK Finance …
26th July 2017
House price growth in the East Midlands is near the top of the pack regionally, but that largely reflects the slowdown seen elsewhere in the country. And with the labour market and buyer demand in the region fairly weak, we expect house price growth there …
21st July 2017
Consumer spending growth looks set to slow further this year as the real pay squeeze intensifies. But this should be offset by a stronger contribution from net trade and investment. There is a risk that uncertainty thrown up by the Brexit vote and the …
19th July 2017
House prices on the official index are rising faster than the other main measures, but that may partly be down to measurement issues. Nonetheless, the continued slowdown in London is consistent with our view that price growth there will be the slowest of …
18th July 2017
