Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
We doubt that March’s slump in mortgage approvals signals the start of a collapse in mortgage lending. Rather, assuming a Brexit deal is done later this year, we think lending will see a modest fall in 2019, before recovering gently in 2020. … Mortgage …
1st May 2019
House price growth was subdued in April, and we expect that trend to continue across our forecast – even assuming a Brexit deal is agreed later this year. … Nationwide House Prices …
With Brexit delayed, a recovery in transactions and house prices is unlikely this year. But even if a Brexit deal were to be agreed by October, high house prices and rising interest rates will leave house price growth sluggish further out. That said, we …
26th April 2019
March’s surprise rise in mortgage approvals is unlikely to be repeated next month. That said, the fact that lending has held up fairly well in the face of Brexit uncertainty so far, supports our view that any drop in approvals this year will be modest. … …
The six-month delay to Brexit until 31st October 2019 has put the brakes on interest rate hikes and left the economy travelling in the middle lane, with GDP likely to rise by 1.5% this year. But should a Brexit deal be struck in October, which is our …
24th April 2019
There was an unexpected loosening in credit conditions at the start of the year. But with no let-up in economic uncertainty and continued gloom about the outlook for housing, we expected this will be temporary. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey …
18th April 2019
The latest RICS survey was slightly less gloomy than a month ago, but this is unlikely to signal any change in the underlying market. Given Brexit concerns, conditions are likely to remain weak near term, with little improvement in activity or prices …
11th April 2019
February’s jump in the Halifax price measure was an outlier in a gloomy run of housing data, so it wasn’t a surprise that this has been partly reversed. The March figure is more in line with a backdrop of falling demand and weak sentiment, and broadly …
5th April 2019
An increase in high-end development and the use of sales incentives have supported recorded new home prices in London. That suggests the observed rise in the new home premium does not signal strengthening demand. Indeed, we expect new home sales in London …
3rd April 2019
January’s jump in house purchase mortgage approvals was not repeated in February. And while lending has been surprisingly resilient in the face of high house prices and mounting uncertainty, we expect approvals to fall a little further in 2019. … Mortgage …
29th March 2019
London’s house price fall intensified in Q1, in line with our expectations. That reflects the high level of prices there, as well as Brexit uncertainty. Looking ahead, we think prices in the capital will continue to fall in 2019, while price gains across …
In line with our view that housebuilding has peaked, last quarter’s surge in housing starts was not repeated in Q4. Looking ahead, with a wider housing market recovery unlikely anytime soon and Help-to-Buy due to be pared back, we think housing starts …
28th March 2019
Despite a slight rise in house purchase mortgage approvals during February, the outlook for lending is weak. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal were to be agreed soon, we expect no meaningful recovery in mortgage lending during 2019. … UK Finance Mortgage …
26th March 2019
House price growth in London has been surprisingly resilient. But with prices very high, interest rates set to rise and the stock of unsold homes growing, we expect a 3% fall in house prices this year. Meanwhile, all signs point to the weakness in …
22nd March 2019
Despite two past rate hikes, lenders’ standard variable mortgage rates are barely higher than in 2017. But we think SVRs will be more responsive to the further hikes likely to come in 2019 and 2020. … When will standard variable rates …
20th March 2019
Prime central London (PCL) house prices held up better than we expected in 2018, though the underlying trend remained weak. The outlook is unlikely to change in 2019 with economic uncertainty remaining high and more tax hikes in prospect, but after that …
15th March 2019
In recent decades, falling mortgage interest rates have allowed home buyers to borrow more relative to their incomes. But that support for house prices has now been exhausted. Indeed, our long-run interest rate view is consistent with a moderate fall in …
14th March 2019
The new buyer enquiries balance fell to a post-crisis low in February, but we doubt that a crash is imminent. That view is consistent with surveyors’ expectations, which anticipate a small improvement in activity and prices next year – once the Brexit fog …
Lending terms did not materially loosen in Q4, despite evidence of a pick-up in competitive pressures among lenders. Looking ahead, with uncertainty weighing in the near-term, and interest rates likely to rise once the Brexit fog clears, the likelihood of …
12th March 2019
Conditions in the housing market have seen no improvement over the last month. Indeed, the data suggest that new buyer enquiries deteriorated at its fastest rate since the financial crisis. Looking ahead, leading indicators suggest that transactions will …
7th March 2019
We wouldn’t put too much weight on the jump in house prices recorded by the Halifax index. Indeed, with all signs pointing to falling demand and weakening buyer sentiment, we think prices will rise by just 1% in 2019. … Halifax House Prices …
January’s surprise jump in house purchase mortgage approvals shouldn’t be overplayed. Given the weak data on buyer demand and house price expectations falling, we expect mortgage approvals to weaken in the coming months. … Mortgage Lending …
1st March 2019
February’s weak result for house price growth shows a market struggling under the weight of Brexit uncertainty. Yet, even if a Brexit deal is reached fairly soon, we think that house price growth will accelerate only a little in 2019, to just 1% y/y. … …
28th February 2019
An end to Help-to-Buy would cause only a minor disruption to first-time buyer housing demand. After all, while the scheme has allowed some FTBs to purchase a home with a smaller deposit, the number of buyers affected is still modest relative to the wider …
27th February 2019
Mortgage approvals for house purchase got off to a weak start in 2019, consistent with our view that lending and housing transactions will weaken again this year. … UK Finance Mortgage Lending …
26th February 2019
While the uncertainty caused by Brexit is hampering consumption, households’ finances are fundamentally sound. Indeed, with earnings growth at a decade-high in December and inflation below its 2% target, households are now enjoying the first sustained …
21st February 2019
Facing weak demand, lenders have cut their interest margins to compete for business, dampening the impact that rate hikes have had on mortgage pricing. But looking ahead, there is limited room for margins to shrink further, meaning mortgage interest rates …
20th February 2019
Housing demand fell sharply in January, but we doubt that heralds a collapse in prices. But conversely, even if a Brexit deal is done, the market is unlikely to rebound. In all, we expect the housing market to stay in limbo for the rest of the year. … …
14th February 2019
There has been a long-running mismatch between where homes are built, and where people are moving to. The government’s standard method for assessing new housing need targets this discrepancy, and should be welcomed, not criticised. … Are homes being built …
12th February 2019
House price growth has slowed to a near standstill, while mortgage approvals are falling. Much of that reflects the high level of house prices, although Brexit uncertainty is increasingly taking its toll on sentiment. Looking ahead, that trend looks set …
8th February 2019
While house prices have some downward momentum, we don’t think that heralds the start of a sustained fall. Rather, we expect house price growth to maintain its sluggish pace in 2019. … Halifax House Prices …
7th February 2019
Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still many different ways Brexit could play out and this …
5th February 2019
The rise in owner occupation recorded in the English Housing Survey is probably more than just noise. And with a revival in buy-to-let unlikely, that trend looks set to persist, suggesting that owner occupation may have reached an inflection point. … Is …
Plans to limit the creation of new leaseholds, as well as to cap ground rents, are unlikely to raise newbuild house prices. Meanwhile, developers could see a small hit to their margins, at least in the short run. But we doubt that the rate of …
1st February 2019
January’s very weak result for house price growth was unexpected, but we don’t think it heralds the start of a sustained decline in prices. Indeed, assuming a Brexit deal is done, we think prices will rise by 1% this year. … Nationwide House Prices …
31st January 2019
After falling sharply in November, house purchase mortgage approvals fell once more in December – consistent with our weak outlook for lending. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal is agreed by the end of March, we think approvals will fall by 2% this year. … …
30th January 2019
Mortgage approvals suffered a second successive monthly decline in December, suggesting that the outlook for lending remains subdued against a backdrop of high house prices and expected rises in interest rates. … UK Finance Mortgage Lending …
25th January 2019
Rising Brexit uncertainty only reinforces our weak outlook for the housing market. In our most likely scenario, we think transactions will dip this year before edging back up in 2020, all while house prices stagnate. That said, even with a no-deal Brexit, …
24th January 2019
Credit availability for both commercial and residential property tightened in Q4, and with Brexit uncertainty likely to be extended, that trend looks set to persist. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey …
17th January 2019
December’s RICS data support our view that the housing market will stay weak in 2019. Indeed, with Brexit uncertainty set to be extended, we expect little or no growth in transactions this year. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
While annual house price growth was broadly flat in November, we expect price inflation to slow across 2019. That will be driven by the high level of house prices and interest rate normalisation, as well as by continued Brexit uncertainty. … UK House …
16th January 2019
Housing starts surged in Q3, but we doubt that marks the start of a new, upward trend. Indeed, with the wider housing market set to stay weak and Help-to-Buy on the way out, we expect housing starts to gradually decline in both 2019 and 2020. … …
15th January 2019
After growing rapidly in recent years, we think remortgaging will peak in 2019. That view is driven by the shift towards longer duration fixed-rate loans, which has reduced the need for borrowers to refinance as often. … Remortgaging set to peak in …
14th January 2019
Much like the year just passed, 2019 will be a subdued year for housing. Transactions and mortgage approvals saw no meaningful gains, house prices grew very slowly, and all signs point to a weak first quarter of 2019. Even if a Brexit deal is reached, we …
9th January 2019
House prices rose by 1.3% in 2018, and we think the weakness in house price growth will persist this year. After all, if a Brexit deal is done, the housing market would still be weighed down by high prices and normalising interest rates. … Halifax House …
8th January 2019
2019 will be another subdued year for housing, with no meaningful recovery in transactions and house price growth. Housebuilding has likely passed its peak, and will fall gently this year, as weak market conditions increasingly weigh on demand for new …
4th January 2019
House price growth and mortgage approvals softened towards the end of 2018 – consistent with our weak outlook for the housing market. Indeed, even assuming that a Brexit deal is struck this year, we don’t expect to see a revival in the housing market. … …
London’s house purchase and rental market will diverge next year. High house prices and rising interest rates will push down London house prices, and make a sustained recovery in transactions unlikely. Yet with tenant demand growth strengthening and …
21st December 2018
House price growth slowed to its lowest rate since 2013 in October, and we expect that cooldown to continue into 2019. Indeed, even if Brexit deal is struck, we expect annual house price growth of just 1% next year. … UK House Price Index …
19th December 2018
London‘s house prices have been falling for much of the last year and we see this as only the start of a correction. But this is the result of specific factors relating to the capital and further house price increases are still expected in the rest of the …
17th December 2018
