Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Rising Brexit uncertainty only reinforces our weak outlook for the housing market. In our most likely scenario, we think transactions will dip this year before edging back up in 2020, all while house prices stagnate. That said, even with a no-deal Brexit, …
24th January 2019
Credit availability for both commercial and residential property tightened in Q4, and with Brexit uncertainty likely to be extended, that trend looks set to persist. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey …
17th January 2019
December’s RICS data support our view that the housing market will stay weak in 2019. Indeed, with Brexit uncertainty set to be extended, we expect little or no growth in transactions this year. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
While annual house price growth was broadly flat in November, we expect price inflation to slow across 2019. That will be driven by the high level of house prices and interest rate normalisation, as well as by continued Brexit uncertainty. … UK House …
16th January 2019
Housing starts surged in Q3, but we doubt that marks the start of a new, upward trend. Indeed, with the wider housing market set to stay weak and Help-to-Buy on the way out, we expect housing starts to gradually decline in both 2019 and 2020. … …
15th January 2019
After growing rapidly in recent years, we think remortgaging will peak in 2019. That view is driven by the shift towards longer duration fixed-rate loans, which has reduced the need for borrowers to refinance as often. … Remortgaging set to peak in …
14th January 2019
Much like the year just passed, 2019 will be a subdued year for housing. Transactions and mortgage approvals saw no meaningful gains, house prices grew very slowly, and all signs point to a weak first quarter of 2019. Even if a Brexit deal is reached, we …
9th January 2019
House prices rose by 1.3% in 2018, and we think the weakness in house price growth will persist this year. After all, if a Brexit deal is done, the housing market would still be weighed down by high prices and normalising interest rates. … Halifax House …
8th January 2019
2019 will be another subdued year for housing, with no meaningful recovery in transactions and house price growth. Housebuilding has likely passed its peak, and will fall gently this year, as weak market conditions increasingly weigh on demand for new …
4th January 2019
House price growth and mortgage approvals softened towards the end of 2018 – consistent with our weak outlook for the housing market. Indeed, even assuming that a Brexit deal is struck this year, we don’t expect to see a revival in the housing market. … …
London’s house purchase and rental market will diverge next year. High house prices and rising interest rates will push down London house prices, and make a sustained recovery in transactions unlikely. Yet with tenant demand growth strengthening and …
21st December 2018
House price growth slowed to its lowest rate since 2013 in October, and we expect that cooldown to continue into 2019. Indeed, even if Brexit deal is struck, we expect annual house price growth of just 1% next year. … UK House Price Index …
19th December 2018
London‘s house prices have been falling for much of the last year and we see this as only the start of a correction. But this is the result of specific factors relating to the capital and further house price increases are still expected in the rest of the …
17th December 2018
Leading indicators suggest that, not long after it started, the dip in London rents will soon end. Indeed, on the back of rising tenant demand and weak supply growth, we think rental growth in the capital will gently accelerate from here, to 2% by 2020. … …
14th December 2018
November’s fall in buyer enquiries and sales instructions is consistent with our view that there will be no revival in the housing market next year. Indeed, with the pipeline of housing sales weakening, transactions are more likely to fall, rather than …
13th December 2018
Despite a small rise in average mortgage LTVs and LTIs, a material loosening in credit conditions is not on the way. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal is reached, we expect little or no growth in mortgage lending next year. … Mortgage Lenders and …
11th December 2018
Our outlook for the housing market is weak. Admittedly, the recent rise in mortgage approvals and housing transactions offered a little relief for the market. But leading indicators suggest that those gains won’t be repeated. Indeed, even with a Brexit …
10th December 2018
House price inflation on the Halifax index paused in November. With house prices set to stay very high relative to incomes and interest rates rising, we expect house price growth to stay sluggish over the next two years. … Halifax House Prices …
7th December 2018
There is little evidence that Brexit uncertainty has led to pent-up demand in the housing market. So even if a Brexit deal is struck, we see little prospect of a rise in housing transactions next year. … Even a Brexit deal won’t revive the housing …
4th December 2018
House price growth accelerated in November. But that didn’t alter the wider trend of slowing house price inflation. With house prices very high relative to incomes and interest rates on an upward trajectory, we expect house price inflation to slow further …
30th November 2018
House purchase mortgage approvals rose in October. But that did little to offset the weakness in lending seen over the last year. Moreover, there are few reasons to believe that the latest rise is the start of a new, upward trend. Indeed, we expect little …
29th November 2018
Mortgage approvals for house purchase ended three months of decline with a small rise in October. But with house prices high and interest rates expected to rise next year, the outlook for lending is expected to be subdued for some time. … UK Finance …
26th November 2018
Having surged in recent years, office to residential conversions have passed their peak. And conversions of other property types to residential are unlikely to soon make up the difference. Combined with falling output among traditional housebuilders, we …
23rd November 2018
The interest premium on high LTV lending is falling, as banks push to maintain lending flows in the face of weak housing demand. But we don’t expect that to trigger a fresh boom in lending. … No sign of easing in deposit …
19th November 2018
While house price inflation edged up in September, the wider trend is still one of slowing growth. With house prices set to stay high relative to incomes, interest rates rising and house price expectations weakening, we expect that trend to persist into …
14th November 2018
In our base case, which is predicated on a Brexit deal being secured and the UK entering into a status quo transition period, a further rise in real earnings should spur a recovery in consumer spending growth. As a result, we expect real spending growth …
13th November 2018
Falling buyer confidence and subdued house price expectations will keep the housing market flat-lining until the end of the year. Rising interest rates will then prevent it from gaining traction in 2019. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
8th November 2018
The Halifax measure of house price growth fell to a 5-year low in October, echoing last week’s Nationwide index and supporting our view of a subdued outlook for UK house prices. … Halifax House Prices …
7th November 2018
The outlook for the housing market is subdued. In the near term, rate rises and signs of growing lender caution will add to the headwinds facing the market. That said, at least house prices are now rising more slowly than income. Given time, that will …
6th November 2018
According to the Nationwide, house price growth hit a five-year low in October. That result is in line with our expectation that house price inflation will subside to 1% or so next year. … Nationwide House Prices …
1st November 2018
The extension of Help-to-Buy provides housebuilders with much needed policy certainty. But with no broader housing market recovery in sight and HTB eligibility to tighten, the industry nonetheless faces weakening demand. We expect a gradual decline in …
31st October 2018
Mortgage approvals fell in September, leaving lending broadly flat over the last three months. Looking ahead, with house prices very high, interest rates on the rise and mortgage lenders becoming more cautious, the outlook for mortgage approvals is …
29th October 2018
Given the risks facing the housing market, the recent rise in lenders’ risk aversion is likely to persist. This supports our view that mortgage approvals will see little growth over the next two years. … Mortgage lender caution set to …
26th October 2018
Mortgage lending is on a gentle downward trajectory, as mortgage approvals for house purchase fell for a third consecutive month in September. Looking ahead, with house prices set to stay very high and interest rates rising, the outlook for lending is …
24th October 2018
The stagnation in the housing market is set to continue for the foreseeable future, as the combination of high house prices and rising mortgage rates, which are set to exceed 3% by 2020, hold the market back. Meanwhile, house price inflation will cool to …
18th October 2018
UK house price growth slowed a touch in August. And while today’s data points to stable London house prices, other indices point to a fall. On balance, we expect UK house price growth to slow further in 2018 and 2019, while London prices will see a modest …
17th October 2018
Rising real wage growth should pave the way for a consumer recovery next year. At the same time, the lifting of Brexit-related uncertainty will set the stage for a sharp rebound in investment spending. This should allow GDP growth to quicken from a …
15th October 2018
A no deal Brexit next March will result in economic activity being lower than in our current forecasts. But with rates also likely to be cut, unless that slowdown is far deeper and more lasting than we think plausible, it will not be the event that …
12th October 2018
Banks reigned in the availability of mortgage credit in Q3, driven by risk aversion and softening house price expectations. Meanwhile, a fall in risk appetite and concerns about the economic outlook drove a reduction in the availability of credit to …
11th October 2018
Housing market activity fell for a second consecutive month in September. That leaves little chance of a pick-up in transactions or mortgage lending before the end of 2018. And with interest rates on an upward trajectory and house prices very high, we …
After a brief respite in the middle 2018, housing market activity is once again in decline. As a result, there is little prospect of a recovery in transactions or mortgage approvals before the end of the year. Furthermore, with interest rates rising and …
9th October 2018
The Halifax index of house prices fall in September, bringing its growth back in line with the other main indices. Looking ahead, we can see few triggers for an acceleration in house price growth. … Halifax House Prices …
5th October 2018
House price growth held firm at 2% y/y in September. And on a regional basis, the South of England tended to underperform the rest of the UK. Looking ahead, we expect that regional trend to continue, and for rising interest rates to slow UK house price …
2nd October 2018
Mortgage approvals rose in August, but lending is still broadly flat on an annual basis. Looking ahead, with house prices set to stay very high relative to incomes and interest rates rising, our outlook for mortgage approvals is subdued. … Mortgage …
1st October 2018
Housing starts have declined in response to weakening demand. Looking ahead, there are few reasons to expect demand to bounce back. As a result, we expect builders to slow construction further over the rest of 2018, rather than run the risk of building …
27th September 2018
Mortgage approvals for house purchase edged down in August, leaving lending at the bottom end of the range that has been seen over the last few years. With interest rates rising and no sign of a recovery in buyer numbers, there is little reason to expect …
26th September 2018
In line with our expectations, housing transactions in London are falling, while house prices are on a gradual downward trajectory. Even so, house prices are still very high and with interest rates on the rise, we expect price cuts to be extended over the …
25th September 2018
Slowing rental growth has been driven by cooling tenant demand growth. And in the near term, there are few signs of an imminent revival in rents. But with the supply and demand balance more likely to tighten than to loosen, we expect a modest improvement …
21st September 2018
According to the UK House Price Index, house price inflation slowed in July, bringing it further in line with the other main measures. And looking ahead, we expect house price growth to continue to slow, as house price falls in London are extended. … UK …
19th September 2018
With RICS survey pointing to falling activity across the board, the housing market’s mid-year respite ended in August. Indeed, leading indicators point to flat or falling mortgage approvals to the end of the year. And we expect the picture of slowing …
13th September 2018
