Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
Today’s survey showed no signs of any softening in occupier demand, development activity or interest levels from investors. So the main message seems to be that property market participants appear cautiously optimistic about the UK economy. … RICS …
27th April 2017
The latest property market data sit well with our view that the industrial sector will prove to be a bright spot this year. What’s more, there were few signs to make us reconsider our view that rental growth will be the main driver of low, single-digit …
24th April 2017
It is tempting to view the latest round of bank branch closures as another sign of the continuing struggles of UK high streets. Yet not only are the latest closures just the latest point in a well-established trend, but there is little to support the idea …
20th April 2017
Commercial property investment activity dipped marginally in March. However, quarterly activity was broadly in line with the long-term average, and there were few signs of foreign demand waning. … Commercial property investment …
13th April 2017
Today’s Labour Force survey gave no worrying signs about the strength of occupier demand, either nationally or in the capital, despite a slowdown in job creation. … Employment …
12th April 2017
The dip in March’s headline construction PMI was entirely down to the residential sector. By contrast, activity in the commercial sector improved, albeit only modestly. … CIPS/Markit Construction PMI …
4th April 2017
All else equal, weaker retail sales should feed through into softer rental value growth. However, retail sales figures have tended to be a poor guide to retail rental growth of late and we see little reason for that to change any time soon. … What does …
3rd April 2017
Today’s Property Pricing survey showed that, in contrast with consensus forecasts for the economy, sentiment appears to have become more bearish towards UK property. However, we would caution against reading too much into the figures, as the reported …
30th March 2017
Net lending to property contracted for the second consecutive month in February. This is likely to reflect liquidity issues in the investment market rather than a shortfall in demand. What’s more, there is some comfort to be found in the fact that …
29th March 2017
Capital values are slowly reversing their post-referendum dips, with steady growth in rental values playing the dominant role. However, with investment market activity still relatively muted, a rapid acceleration in capital value growth, driven by yield …
24th March 2017
Leading indicators of all-property yield movements suggest that yields could harden by 30bp-50bp this year. And provided that rental values grow by around 1%, capital values would rise by up to 10% as a result. However, we think there are good reasons why …
21st March 2017
Office rents in central London have never been higher. Even in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, they are well above the levels which appear to have been sustainable in the past. However, since the credit crunch we have seen a large and steady rise in the …
16th March 2017
Today’s Labour Force Survey showed that job creation picked up in January. This adds to the evidence that occupier market conditions are likely to hold up fairly well this year. … Employment …
15th March 2017
The value of investment in UK commercial property markets rose in February. What’s more, domestic institutions are beginning to dip their toes into the water, and demand from overseas investors has shown no signs of abating. … Commercial property …
10th March 2017
Hopes that the Chancellor would use today’s Budget to find a way of providing more meaningful relief for those businesses set to see the largest increases in business rates in April, were largely disappointed. And, in a move that is likely to further …
8th March 2017
We think that the recent fall in gilt yields – which appears to partly reflect lower Bank Rate expectations – has been overdone. While economic data has taken a slight turn for the worse, we remain confident that the economy will continue to hold up …
6th March 2017
The headline construction PMI ticked up in February. But within the total, the commercial PMI edged down to a level that is consistent with rental stability over 2017. … CIPS/Markit Construction PMI …
2nd March 2017
Net lending to the property sector contracted by £738m in January. However, we suspect that this reflects a softening in demand for loans on the back of weak investment activity, rather than increased risk aversion from lenders. … Lending to commercial …
1st March 2017
With investment activity and yield movements subdued, the latest data were yet another reminder that rental values will be the primary determinant of capital value growth this year. What’s more, this also suggests that the likelihood of a quick reversal …
27th February 2017
The latest IPF consensus figures show that expectations for capital values have been nudged up this year and over the 2017-2020 period. In turn, that suggests the most negative assessments of the UK’s economic prospects have been reassessed. … IPF …
24th February 2017
For most firms, we suspect that any rise in business rates in April will be more manageable than recent headlines seem to imply. Nevertheless, the current confusion over the potential impact of the rates revaluation and the fact that rates are set with no …
22nd February 2017
The rate of employment growth in London has roughly halved since May. However, we think that occupier demand will hold up relatively well. Not only do PMIs point to relatively stable rates of employment growth in the short-term, but steady demand from …
17th February 2017
Today’s data show that the labour market is holding up well. That said, with employee numbers flat, occupier demand looks set to be steady rather than resurgent. … Employment …
15th February 2017
Commercial property investment made a disappointingly weak start to the year. However, we suspect that a lack of opportunity, rather than a lack of demand lies behind the softer data. … Commercial property investment …
13th February 2017
Uncertainty and financial market volatility stemming from the Brexit negotiations still pose a risk to property pricing. But, in reality, the Brexit vote has had little, if any, lasting impact on the economy or property markets to date. And we believe …
10th February 2017
Reports highlighting the very high levels of development activity in the Birmingham office market reinforce our view that the city is now poised for a period of underperformance. But in the absence of a major demand shock, higher levels of supply alone …
6th February 2017
The RICS Construction survey and the CIPS/Markit Construction PMI both suggested that the pace of construction activity has slowed over recent months. Yet, in light of our positive view on economic growth in 2017 and forward-looking aspects giving some …
2nd February 2017
At £494m in December, the rise in net lending to commercial property almost fully reversed the previous two months’ falls. But with the both the investment and development market giving mixed signals, we think that bank lending to commercial property is …
31st January 2017
The commercial property market regained a little momentum in the closing stages of last year. However, the stability of property yields in recent months, is a reminder that rental growth will probably be the main driver of capital values in 2016, implying …
26th January 2017
The latest RICS survey of conditions in the commercial property market was broadly positive. The balances for tenant and investor demand, as well as capital and rental value expectations, were all positive. But there was also some evidence that office and …
The prospect of financial institutions shifting jobs away from the UK poses a risk the UK economy, as well as commercial property markets. However, there are good reasons to take their threats with a dose of scepticism. … The bankers’ …
19th January 2017
Despite marking a second consecutive contraction in job creation, today’s figures were not all bad for property. With part-time and self-employed jobs bearing the brunt of the falls, and forward-looking indicators looking solid, the risk of rental falls …
18th January 2017
Investment activity fell to more normal levels in 2016 and we expect 2017 to at least match it. Not only have relative yield movements made the UK look more attractive, but the economy has surprised on the upside implying little reason to believe that …
17th January 2017
December’s investment figures posted a healthy 21% monthly increase, which brought the annual total to £49bn. A closer reading of the data also revealed that while there are few signs of a reversal in investor confidence, liquidity may still be patchy. … …
13th January 2017
The supply of residential mortgage credit worsened a touch in the fourth quarter. But there was no sign of a drop in lenders’ risk appetite or market share objectives, suggesting that credit availability will not continue to worsen in 2017. … Bank of …
In our view, 2017 will prove to be a better year for property than the consensus assumes. But there is little room for complacency. A domestic-led inflationary shock, well beyond what central banks currently expect, accompanied by a strong monetary policy …
6th January 2017
The fall in net lending to standing investment property in November means that September’s sharp rise in overall net lending has now been more than reversed. But the news isn’t all bad. Net lending to new development rose for the third consecutive month, …
4th January 2017
As we approach the end of the year, there are few signs of stress in the commercial property market. While the retail sector continues to underperform, the bigger picture is that yields appear to have stabilised and occupier demand is sufficiently strong …
20th December 2016
Commercial property investment activity picked up in November. And, contrary to the reports from the FPC, demand from overseas investors has shown little signs of abating. … Commercial property investment …
14th December 2016
The number of people in work fell slightly in October, suggesting that some of the labour market’s recent resilience may now be fading. But we doubt the weakness will escalate to an extent that puts rental values at risk. … Employment …
A recent report argued that the fall in all-property capital values in the third quarter may have been double the one presented in the IPD quarterly index. Yet the same methodology implies that the rise in capital values in the first half of the year was …
13th December 2016
Commercial construction activity faces several headwinds, such as subdued occupier market conditions as well as rising costs. However, if developers believe (as we do) that the economy will recover strongly after 2017, starts of large-scale projects may …
9th December 2016
The construction PMI edged up again in November and is at a level consistent with overall construction output expanding following a contraction in the third quarter. The commercial activity sub-index also increased, and now paints a more positive picture …
2nd December 2016
Economic indicators showed that the economy has held up since the referendum vote. The PMIs point to healthy GDP growth in Q4 and retail sales growing at a strong clip. That said, job creation has showed signs of slowing. Nevertheless, the …
1st December 2016
The vote to leave the EU has polarised opinions about the outlook for commercial property. But we think there are good reasons to be optimistic. The monetary policy response to the vote has helped underpin valuations. Furthermore, with recessionary fears …
30th November 2016
The Colliers/REC survey painted a weak picture of the short-term outlook for commercial property. Respondents expect rising yields and falling rental values to cause a 2% fall in capital values. Our more sanguine view on the economy means that stronger …
At minus £119m, October’s fall in net lending to property only partially reversed September’s strong gains. Yet with little to suggest a shift in lender’s sentiment, we suspect it was driven by weaker investment activity during the month. … Lending to …
29th November 2016
After a significant downgrade in August, November’s IPF consensus figures suggest that some of the gloomiest views are being revised up. That said, although the path for yields implied in the figures is less steep than last quarter, the consensus is still …
28th November 2016
The fact that real rental values are 22% below their previous peak and housing transactions are set to strengthen, suggest that retail warehouse rental values have substantial scope to rise. However, structural changes, as well as the coming squeeze on …
25th November 2016
Looser monetary policy, a healthy run of economic data, as well as some signs that the impact of the referendum on capital values is fading, mean that we have made some minor upgrades to our forecasts since our last Analyst. Granted, the uncertainty …
22nd November 2016
