Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
A weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates this year and next mean that we now think euro-zone all-property yields will reach their trough by the end of this year and will come under more upward pressure than previously expected. In …
28th April 2022
Past delays in development projects mean that office completions will exceed demand in Budapest this year and next. As such, having held broadly steady in 2021, office vacancy is set to rise again and put downward pressure on rents over the next couple of …
22nd April 2022
We think the recent upturn in office market performance is largely down to the one-off release of pent-up demand and remain downbeat about future prospects. With occupancy still languishing and remote working firmly established, we think that the risks to …
21st April 2022
While economic growth is forecast to slow, limited supply and further strong growth in e-commerce-related demand mean Belgium industrial rental growth is expected to outperform its pre-pandemic average as well as most other euro-zone markets. Industrial …
14th April 2022
While prime industrial rental growth in the German markets is expected to slow in the next couple of years, it will remain above its past averages. But the risks are to the upside given the rise in land and construction costs, which are likely to further …
11th April 2022
We think that a rebound in employment will help prime office rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid to outperform the euro-zone this year. But this is likely to be short-lived, as the shift to remote working weighs more heavily on office demand in Spain …
8th April 2022
With cyclical pandemic effects fading, the backdrop has improved for Dutch retail. However, having been hardest hit in 2020-21, the structural legacy of COVID-19 and higher economic barriers to conversion mean that the outlook is also weaker for retail in …
4th April 2022
The strength of Prague industrial performance last year exceeded expectations but also left valuations looking highly stretched. While there are risks stemming from trade links with Russia, we think the expectation of solid rental growth will continue to …
31st March 2022
Overview – The war in Ukraine will have spillover effects for property in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), albeit that Russia will be far worst hit. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on property demand, while inflation and …
30th March 2022
We think that property markets are the weak link when it comes to the impact of tightening monetary policy. A modest rise in interest rates might only cause price falls in a few obvious candidates. But rates might have to rise only a bit further than we …
25th March 2022
Overview – Property demand in the Scandinavian and Swiss markets is expected to hold up this year, as they are more insulated from the negative impacts of the war in Ukraine on economic activity. However, structural shifts will continue to cloud the …
24th March 2022
Overview – While the direct impact of the war in Ukraine is likely to be small, we think there will be indirect consequences for euro-zone commercial property markets. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on property demand. But as …
18th March 2022
While we don’t think that 2021’s strong pace of prime office rental growth in Amsterdam will be sustained, we still expect growth to outperform the euro-zone over the next couple of years, averaging around 3% a year. Prime office rents in Amsterdam …
9th March 2022
Higher government bond yields and falls in property yields across all sectors contributed to a deterioration in European property valuations in Q4. (See Chart 1.) While most industrial markets now look overvalued, for now we think that this is justified …
1st March 2022
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added significant new uncertainty for investors. We expect Moscow property will take a substantial hit, but the impact on the wider European property market will be limited. We have outlined our initial thoughts about …
28th February 2022
Sharp falls in property yields and an improvement in rental growth pushed CEE all-property values in Q4 up almost 5% q/q, the strongest quarterly growth rate since 2007. (See Chart 1.) This was largely driven by the strength of industrial, but office …
24th February 2022
There was a material improvement in the Scandinavian and Swiss property markets over 2021. Prime office and industrial capital value growth accelerated. And while prime retail values still declined, this was at a slower pace than in 2020. Oslo was an …
21st February 2022
Euro-zone commercial property markets ended 2021 on a stronger note. Prime rental growth picked up in the office and industrial sectors, while retail rents held steady for the third consecutive quarter. Combined with further declines in property yields, …
17th February 2022
Our forecasts suggest that prime all-property rental growth across the main euro-zone markets is likely to keep pace with inflation in the coming years. However, this is more of a reflection of expected demand and supply conditions, than an indication …
14th February 2022
After a record-breaking 2021, survey evidence points to a strong start to the year for pan-European (excluding UK) investment volumes. With pent-up demand mostly exhausted, we expect transactions to slow in the second half of the year. Nonetheless that …
11th February 2022
The exceptionally strong rebound in commercial property returns has been clear from the middle of last year. While this came earlier than most expected, we think it reflected special conditions and won’t last. Despite increased uncertainty from the …
The recovery in Dublin offices has lagged the broader economic upturn. While demand is expected to improve in 2022, with a full supply pipeline, it is likely that vacancy will stay at relatively high levels over the next two years and rental growth will …
4th February 2022
While the recent improvement in world trade is encouraging for industrial demand in the major port markets, we don’t expect an acceleration in rental growth this year. Supply bottlenecks will still take time to unwind and the low availability of space and …
3rd February 2022
While we think the direct risks to property from the pandemic have reduced, the uncertain impact of structural change and our expectation that interest rates will now be increased from late this year reinforce our view that Stockholm property returns will …
28th January 2022
The early data indicate that Paris offices recovered last year, though much of this reflected strength in the core CBD market. With the economic background supportive and supply relatively contained, we expect further prime office rental growth at a touch …
27th January 2022
While we now expect the ECB to start its tightening cycle earlier, we don’t think the change is significant enough to prevent further property yield compression over 2022-23, albeit at a slower pace than in 2021. We recently revised our ECB policy view …
18th January 2022
Having been hit hard in 2020, improving economic conditions supported flexible office take-up in 2021, albeit caution and consolidation limited the net increase in space. While we expect take-up to remain low compared to the pre-virus period, we think it …
17th January 2022
Real estate potentially has a significant role to play in helping achieve ambitious climate targets. We have estimated the size of the risks in the transition to net zero for the commercial property markets that we cover. This risk varies widely across …
14th January 2022
An expected improvement in spending is encouraging for prime high streets this year. Nevertheless, with a growing share of retail turnover made online and city-based retail more vulnerable to remote working, prime high street rental growth is generally …
10th January 2022
We don’t expect slower near-term economic growth to derail the property upturn in 2022. Rather, we think that continued falls in property yields and a rebound in all-property rents will support further increases in capital values. That said, the pace of …
6th January 2022
While office performance surprised on the upside and we could have been much bolder in our forecast for industrial yield falls, our other forecasts for 2021 proved to be broadly correct. With the arrival of a new year, it is always worth looking back to …
5th January 2022
Despite tight supply and the boost to demand from e-commerce, we think Turkey’s recent currency crisis will further weigh on Istanbul industrial rents and that rental growth will slow sharply after this year. Echoing the trend seen elsewhere in Europe, …
23rd December 2021
The pandemic-driven boost in scientific research and development will support demand in the European life science sector, at least for the next few years. This bodes well for several markets we forecast, including Warsaw and Copenhagen. The shift to more …
20th December 2021
Overview – With the recovery running out of steam and the emergence of the Omicron variant posing a downside risk, the economic backdrop is likely to provide less support to the property recovery over the coming quarters . Nevertheless, we think that both …
16th December 2021
The rapid bounce-back in the US economy along with still-loose monetary policy will drive continued strong performance in real estate in 2022, when we expect returns to exceed 12%. That would see the US outperform the UK and euro-zone by 5%-pts and 3%-pts …
15th December 2021
Overview – The near-term economic outlook has weakened, though GDP in the region had already surpassed its pre-virus levels by Q3. Meanwhile, inflation is set to fall back next year, allowing most central banks to keep interest rates on hold. While the …
14th December 2021
Overview – The near-term economic outlook has weakened, with the Omicron variant posing further downside risk. Meanwhile, inflation is likely to be higher for longer. However, we expect it to fall back by 2023, allowing interest rates to remain low. This …
9th December 2021
After surprising on the upside this year, we think that the broad-based decline in Central and Eastern European (CEE) property yields will continue in 2022, albeit at a more modest pace. But with higher bond yields eventually weighing on valuations, we …
30th November 2021
Higher alternative asset yields and falls in office and industrial yields contributed to a further deterioration in property valuations in Q3. (See Chart 1.) The decline in government bond yields since then, which has been reinforced by concerns about the …
29th November 2021
The rebound in economic activity and robust investor demand paved the way for a continued improvement in Scandinavian and Swiss property markets in Q3. Office and industrial values rose further, as strong competition pushed down yields. (See Chart 1.) …
23rd November 2021
CEE property values completed the final leg of their recovery in Q3, fully reversing the nearly 5.5% peak-to-trough drop in 2020. With rents barely moving on the quarter, falls in yields did all the heavy lifting in driving capital values higher. CEE …
22nd November 2021
The recovery in euro-zone commercial property values picked up in Q3, supported by a small fall in yields and an improvement in the pace of rental growth. While retail rents held steady, the quarterly rise in both office and industrial rents was the …
16th November 2021
The IPF Consensus forecasts for euro-zone prime office rental growth in 2021 have been revised up, consistent with the more positive recent data. However, expectations were revised down slightly for the next couple of years. Even so, we still have a more …
15th November 2021
A healthy occupier backdrop and a shortage of supply should allow prime industrial rents in the Netherlands to continue to grow at a steady pace over the coming years. As a result, after years of underperformance, our forecasts leave Dutch rental growth …
11th November 2021
The latest data show that conditions in the German retail sector are improving. Nevertheless, we think vacancy will be slow to reverse as pandemic shifts lead to weakness in in-store demand, particularly in Frankfurt and Munich. Following the pandemic …
8th November 2021
While the latest virus outbreak has clouded the near-term outlook, a tight supply picture and steady employment growth mean that prime Moscow office rents should return to growth in 2022. Preliminary data revealed that, following a collapse in occupier …
4th November 2021
Europeans are returning to cities, though the return to offices has been much slower and this has had negative effects on city retail. Looking ahead, weaker demand for office and retail will weigh on performance in cities with large concentrations of …
2nd November 2021
The Q3 investment data indicate that activity could be slightly stronger this year than we had expected. However, with the economic recovery topping out and structural headwinds limiting investment in the office and retail sectors, we think commercial …
28th October 2021
We expect steady French industrial rental growth over the next few years on the back of a solid economic backdrop and more online shopping. That said, if construction costs and land constraints become more acute, there is a risk that rents climb higher …
25th October 2021
After a fall this year, we expect Warsaw retail rents to return to growth in 2022. That said, the city’s reliance on office workers means that the shift to remote working will weigh on retail spending and keep a lid on rental growth. Following …
21st October 2021
