Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Steady economic growth in Western Europe has been positive for rental growth, helping to support yield falls in Q4. However, in Emerging Europe, the picture is more mixed, with the Czech Republic occupier markets continuing to thrive, while Istanbul has …
13th February 2017
Strong investor demand for euro-zone commercial property assets saw investment volumes hit a record high in the fourth quarter of last year. What’s more, competition for assets saw the all-property prime yield fall by a further 10bps, pushing it below 4% …
Over the last eight years, the exceptionally loose monetary policy environment in Europe appears to have driven a change in the dynamics of the relationship between prime office yields, risk-free rates and economic activity. In the absence of any major …
10th February 2017
An increase in the Paris development pipeline for 2017 means that our previous forecast for office rents this year is now unlikely to be met. Instead, we now expect prime rents to grow by just 1.5% this year, although a renewed fall in vacancy should then …
1st February 2017
A slowdown in Spanish economic activity and rising office developments are set to weigh on prime office rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid over the coming years. Nonetheless, growth in both cities will still be some of the strongest in Europe. … Growth …
30th January 2017
Commercial property investment across Europe fell last year for the first time since 2009, driven by a large decline in the UK. Yet increased investment in Europe ex-UK and upbeat investor sentiment suggest that property should perform pretty well in …
26th January 2017
On the surface, lower levels of fund-raising in 2016 hint at concerns about pricing at this stage of the cycle. However, in light of tough competition for prime assets and a heightened perception of risk denting demand for secondary assets, we believe the …
24th January 2017
Political and economic uncertainty this year could drive increased volatility in sovereign bond yields in Southern Europe. But in the absence of a sharp and sustained shift higher, we think prime property will still be attractive to investors, though the …
18th January 2017
A weak economy means that prime rents in the Milan and Rome retail markets are more likely to stagnate this year than to repeat 2015’s sharp increase. We have pencilled in modest increases in rental values in 2018, but cannot rule out a weaker outcome. … …
16th January 2017
Following a record 2015, investment activity in Germany slipped a little in 2016. However, prime office yields fell further in Q4, suggesting that investors still see value in the German market. … Investment in Germany slips, but pricing continues to …
13th January 2017
Prime retail rents in Dublin have topped the euro-zone league table for growth since 2014. With good consumer spending prospects and tight supply, we think that rents in the Irish capital will continue to see some of the strongest growth across the …
11th January 2017
Five of the six largest Nordic investment transactions in 2016 involved portfolios in Sweden. We think that reflects growing confidence in the outlook for non-prime properties in the region’s largest economy and that such confidence is well-founded. … …
6th January 2017
As a new year begins and investors focus on key themes and forecasts for the year ahead, we have taken the opportunity to outline some of our key calls for 2017 and the thinking behind them. … Six key calls for European commercial property in …
4th January 2017
Low vacancy rates and high capital values are driving high levels of logistics development in the Netherlands. Although we see potential for rents to tick up in the next few years, we do not expect them to grow substantially, as large occupiers are happy …
22nd December 2016
The ECB’s recent announcement of a slower rate of asset purchases is not a sign that the normalisation in euro-zone monetary policy has moved closer. We therefore expect Bund yields to be still close to current levels in two years’ time. That means that …
16th December 2016
A slowing Swiss economy doesn’t bode well for the near-term outlook for office and industrial rents in Geneva and Zurich. But with prime retail rents seemingly disconnected from the domestic economy, demand from international luxury retailers should push …
14th December 2016
Tight supply and a positive demand outlook point towards a rise in prime German industrial rents. Indeed, we think rental growth prospects are relatively strong compared to the last ten years. … Signs point towards higher German industrial …
9th December 2016
Contrary to popular belief, we think that it has been the strength of the domestic economy, rather than firms relocating to Romania on cost grounds, which has caused prime Bucharest industrial rents to soar. Further solid growth in consumer demand should …
7th December 2016
As in the euro-zone, monetary policy is set to stay loose in the rest of Europe keeping real estate attractive. That said, the current phase of falling yields is set to end in 2019 in Western European markets, but yields in Eastern Europe should keep …
2nd December 2016
Although government bond yields have ticked up recently, modest rates of GDP growth across the euro-zone and a low interest rate environment will continue to be positive for capital values over the next couple of years. Indeed, at the all-property level, …
We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to stay weak, prompting interest rates to stay low and supporting valuations of prime property assets. In this environment, property yields can continue falling over the next two years, by more than the driving …
28th November 2016
Italian government bond yields have almost doubled over the past few weeks. Nevertheless, we do not see this as a reason for property investors to panic and expect prime Italian property yields to move lower over the next couple of years. … Should …
24th November 2016
Retail rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid has slowed recently, despite the continued strength of retail sales. With weaker domestic demand on the horizon, rental growth is likely to ease further. But this should prove to be a short-term blip, with …
18th November 2016
A middling couple of quarters for economic growth help explain the somewhat weak performance of rental values in Q3. However, investment activity generally held up well and strong demand for prime product kept downward pressure on prime yields this …
11th November 2016
The pace at which all-property euro-zone yields are falling picked up in Q3. The 11bp decline was larger than the 6bp fall in Q2 and broad-based across both sectors and markets. As a result, capital values appreciated by more than in Q2 despite a slight …
Prime property yields in Germany continue to fall. Yet, despite being well below pre-financial crisis lows, commercial property still looks fairly valued relative to other assets. With the ultra-loose monetary policy environment set to continue, we think …
7th November 2016
Bond and equity dividend yields fell in Q3 meaning that, although property yields ticked down again, relative property valuations tended to improve over the quarter. … Property yields still have room for …
4th November 2016
Prime retail rents in Lisbon have risen by more than one-third in the last six years, supported by policy reform, a rise in tourist numbers and an economic recovery. But, with slower economic growth ahead, we expect the recent rapid pace of rental growth …
3rd November 2016
Prime office rents in the German capital, Berlin, have surged this year. With a positive economic environment and limited development pipeline, the rise in rental values has further to run. … Rally in Berlin office rents not over …
28th October 2016
The prevailing view is that European property yields have essentially reached their trough. But we disagree and have pencilled in falls of 40bps from here. Nevertheless, it is prudent to ask what could derail our bullish forecasts. … What might derail our …
21st October 2016
The first European investment data for Q3 show that volumes were down sharply compared to the same quarter a year ago. But that was driven by subdued activity in the UK which, being one of the most traded commercial property markets in the region, had a …
18th October 2016
A sharp decline in prime Madrid office yields has fully closed the spread over Milan for just the third time since 1991. With a stronger economic outlook, we think investors will continue to favour Madrid, pushing the city’s yield premium to Milan further …
13th October 2016
The Norwegian consumer sector has been resilient in the face of the most recent economic slowdown. Additionally, retail sales in Oslo have outperformed the national average and will support strong retailer demand in the coming years. This will see prime …
12th October 2016
Uncertainty ahead of the UK’s vote to leave the EU is likely to explain, at least in part, the easing of office take-up in Dublin in H1. But with an expected slowdown in job creation likely to dampen take-up volumes in the years ahead, we expect prime …
7th October 2016
The current sweet spot for Prague office occupier demand isn’t likely to last for long. Next year will see vast levels of new completions alongside a slowdown in demand growth. Nevertheless, we expect capital values to be driven up by 14% by the end of …
6th October 2016
A solid and strengthening outlook for the Polish consumer sector will keep demand for prime retail units buoyant over the next couple of years. This will enable prime retail rents in Warsaw to grow by 4.5% between the end of Q2 2016 and Q4 2017. … Warsaw …
3rd October 2016
A subdued outlook for consumption and a large pipeline of new retail developments will mean that rental values in Brussels stagnate next year. But for the first time in at least 15 years, limited new retail space in Antwerp, alongside its popularity among …
30th September 2016
The decision by Moody’s to downgrade Turkey’s credit rating to non-investment grade comes at a time when investment in Turkish commercial property is struggling. Given a worsening economic and political outlook, we expect lower rents and rising yields to …
29th September 2016
After dipping in the second half of 2015, prime office rents in Vienna rebounded over the first six months of this year. With a tight supply side and relatively good employment growth prospects, we think prime rents will continue to move higher. … …
26th September 2016
Buoyant occupier demand for logistics space in Sweden is being met by above-average levels of new supply. However, prime industrial rents in Stockholm will be driven upward as conversion of existing stock to residential use reduces the effective …
23rd September 2016
Relative to other European cities, property valuations in Dublin are edging towards being overvalued. Nonetheless, while there seems to be little scope for further significant falls, with good rental growth prospects over the next few quarters, prime …
20th September 2016
Investment demand for Finnish property in H1 more than matched that seen in H1 2015 as Nordic investors and German funds targeted its higher income yields. We think this demand will keep investment volumes strong in the remainder of 2016 pushing the yield …
16th September 2016
With the exception of Berlin, prime retail rents in Germany’s four main cities have stagnated over the past year or so. But with a healthy economic outlook, we do not think that this is a sign that prime rents have hit a ceiling. … Outlook for German …
15th September 2016
The UK’s decision to leave the EU has weakened the economic outlook for the euro-zone and increased expectations that the ECB will keep monetary policy looser for longer. While slower economic growth is negative for the property rental outlook, the …
9th September 2016
In the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, central banks have signalled a looser monetary policy stance ahead. Nevertheless, we expect economic growth to be weaker, which has led us to reduce our rental growth forecasts in most markets. But, looser …
Despite a slowdown in Spain’s economic recovery, growth is still expected to be healthy, providing a positive backdrop for industrial rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid. And with industrial pricing appearing far from stretched, investor interest is …
2nd September 2016
In the first half of 2016, prime office rental values in Paris have already matched the full year increase predicted by the IPF consensus forecasts. With take-up strong and a limited supply of quality space in central areas, we think that rental growth is …
1st September 2016
Stronger economic growth in Q2 helped to prevent further falls in the majority of prime retail and industrial rents across the central and eastern European region. Rents may, therefore, have found a floor. At the same time, investment activity rose, with …
26th August 2016
All-property euro-zone rental values increased by 0.9% q/q in Q2, up from 0.4% q/q in Q1, as office rents rose at the fastest quarterly rate since the financial crisis. At the same time, yields fell for the sixteenth consecutive quarter and have now …
Property yields fell again in Q2 as demand for prime property remained strong. But, with mostbond yields falling in the second quarter, property still looks fairly valued. … Lower bond yields counteract falling property …
19th August 2016
