Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Euro-zone property investment rose by 9% y/y last year to reach a new high of €183bn. But not all markets shared in the spoils, with Italy posting a 20% decline. At the all-property level, yields edged down by 2bps, taking the annual rate of compression …
15th February 2019
A weaker outlook for the euro-zone economy reinforces our view that industrial rental growth will slow this year and next. With policy rates on hold, we don’t expect upward pressure on industrial yields yet, but this remains a risk further out. … Will …
8th February 2019
Belgium’s retail sector is under significant pressure from both cyclical and structural forces. As a result, we expect rents to fall again in 2019 and yields to tick upwards slightly. … Troubling times for Belgian …
6th February 2019
With risk-free rates expected to stay low, the continued attractiveness of commercial property returns means that investment in 2019 likely to be close to last year’s record level. … Allure of property to keep investment strong in …
1st February 2019
A poor economic outlook and elevated political risks are unlikely to result in a reversal of the increased risk aversion towards Italian property assets. As a result, investment in Italy is likely to fall again this year. … Further fall in Italian …
30th January 2019
With only a small downgrade to our outlook for the Spanish economy, office occupier demand looks set to stay healthy. As such, rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid will continue to be amongst the strongest in the euro-zone over the next couple of years. …
25th January 2019
A poorer outlook for the German economy has increased the downside risks to our outlook for occupier markets, most notably in the industrial sector as weaker global demand cools export growth. … Re-assessing the outlook for German occupier …
24th January 2019
With plenty of capital still waiting to be deployed and attractive returns on offer, investment in European commercial property is likely to be strong again this year. However, a swing back towards core strategies suggests that investors are increasingly …
18th January 2019
Outperformance in the Nordic economies will support occupier markets and rental growth prospects this year. As a result, we think that investment volumes in 2019 will be close to the level recorded in 2018. … Nordic investment set to maintain its recent …
16th January 2019
A weaker outlook for the euro-zone economy is likely to see a more marked slowdown in rental growth, shifting the risks to property markets on the occupier side. … Sharper euro-zone slowdown increases occupier …
11th January 2019
With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the comparison with the long-term average property yield. …
9th January 2019
Commercial property capital values will rise again in 2019, supported by an improved outlook for yields, which will, at a European level, edge slightly lower this year. However, a weakening economic backdrop will also mean that occupier market momentum …
4th January 2019
A no deal Brexit is unlikely to provide much support for property in the rest of Europe. The negative impact on euro-zone occupier markets should be modest, but investors, rather than reallocate UK capital to continental markets, are most likely to hold …
21st December 2018
Scandinavian property yields are now set to mark time in 2019 before rising from 2020, despite slowing rental growth. Copenhagen industrial is our top pick for the region. Total returns will be higher in emerging Europe, as yields have more scope to fall …
20th December 2018
The euro-zone economy has weakened sharply in 2018. With growth unlikely to regain lost momentum, not only has the outlook for occupier markets deteriorated, but the possibility of the ECB delaying its first interest rate hike has increased. As a result, …
With growth in the euro-zone slowing faster than expected and the chances of the ECB delaying its first interest rate hike increasing, property yields are now more likely to plateau next year, than rise. … Property yields to …
14th December 2018
London office and retail property are set to produce only middling performance in the next few years, when compared to Western Europe’s other major markets. We think London’s large development pipeline will constrain rental value growth in the office …
12th December 2018
With all of the hype around the potential impact of online retailing on industrial occupier demand, there has been a big shift in the relative pricing of industrial assets. Although rents in the UK have surged, supply-side constraints, rather than demand, …
7th December 2018
With Germany’s labour market close to capacity, limited scope for strong employment growth will hurt office occupier demand. As new completions hit the market at the same time, we see rental growth starting to run out of steam. … Office rental growth in …
5th December 2018
Industrial rental growth in Dublin has accelerated this year. But as softer economic growth ahead dampens occupier demand, this increase in rental growth will prove temporary. … Pick-up in Dublin industrial rental growth won’t …
30th November 2018
The number of European property markets that appear to be overvalued continues to rise. With prime property yields still edging lower and government bond yields higher in Q3, the majority of markets recorded a deterioration in valuation scores. What’s …
20th November 2018
Office occupier demand was again strong this quarter, driving vacancy rates lower and rental values higher in a number of markets. The retail and industrial sectors saw only limited rental growth though, reflecting retailer caution and strong growth of …
9th November 2018
Investor demand for commercial property assets in the euro-zone continues to see prime yields edge lower, particularly in the office and industrial sectors, albeit falls of 4bps and 7bps respectively at the euro-zone level suggest they are close to a …
Delays on development projects mean that demand will comfortably exceed completions next year, driving rental values higher again. Thereafter, annual completions could reach in excess of 300,000 sqm, or 8% of stock, in both 2020 and 2021, driving vacancy …
2nd November 2018
The number of retail markets seeing prime rents stagnate or fall is at the highest level since 2009. But there are good reasons why that number is more likely to rise than to reverse over the next year or two. … Prime retail rents increasingly likely to …
1st November 2018
Dublin’s large office pipeline has started to push vacancy higher, in spite of strong take-up volumes. As occupier demand softens, further increases in vacancy will start to put downward pressure on prime rents. … Dublin office rents set to fall on rising …
26th October 2018
With no obvious indication that French property investment will change significantly next year, our upcoming forecasting round is likely to see a flattening in our property yield profile for 2019. … Plateauing French investment points to stable …
23rd October 2018
The short-term outlook for prime retail occupier demand in Barcelona and Madrid should support a further rise in rents next year. But with a number of headwinds on the horizon, rental growth is likely to come to a standstill in 2020. … Headwinds loom for …
19th October 2018
Falling vacancy will drive up prime office rents in Oslo by around 14% by the end of 2020. And, with government bond yields forecast to stabilise at about 2%, there will be little upward pressure on property yields. This means that office capital values …
17th October 2018
A slowdown in retail sales growth helps to explain why logistics take-up volumes in Germany’s main cities have been weaker than across the rest of Germany. While the retail sector should pick-up next year, the boost to take-up is likely to be short-lived. …
12th October 2018
The increasing maturity of the Czech property market means that, despite signs of slowing rental growth, the rise in Czech government bond yields will not be mirrored in property yields. … Could Czech property yields be about to turn …
10th October 2018
With the economic outlook in Italy softening, the likelihood of weaker tenant demand at a time of rising completions means that we have lowered our forecasts for rental growth in 2019 and 2020. … Clouds darken over Milan office …
5th October 2018
The French economy has disappointed so far this year, but we expect stronger growth in the second half of the year and into 2019. This will be positive for the regional office markets such as Lyon, where vacancy is at 15-year lows and demand for space is …
2nd October 2018
Spain’s strong economic recovery has driven higher levels of demand for logistics space. But with manufacturing output slowing and the prospect of weaker export growth ahead, occupier demand is likely to start to soften, acting as a headwind for rental …
28th September 2018
Changing shopping patterns and pockets of new supply in both Amsterdam and Rotterdam have meant that Dutch high street rents have not performed as well as might be expected given the strong consumer fundamentals. We expect both factors to keep rents …
26th September 2018
Lisbon was one of the best performing retail markets last year, as high street rents rose by 14%, reflecting healthy retailer activity. But with the strength of key drivers fading, we expect rental growth to slow. … Lisbon retail tailwinds …
24th September 2018
Our updated yield model points to prime euro-zone office yields rising by only around 5bps by the end of 2020. This is notably less than our forecast, which points to a rise of 20bps in the same period. However, country-specific factors in Italy, in …
20th September 2018
The full impact of Poland’s new Sunday trading laws is yet to become clear. But, coupled with a large pipeline in Warsaw, we think that rental growth in the capital will slow to 1.5% in both 2019 and 2020. In Krakow, however, we see vacancy falling and …
14th September 2018
With property yields in emerging Europe sitting above their pre-crisis lows and those in central Europe looking relatively well-placed on our valuation measure, we think that yields in the region can continue to edge down next year, by as much as 15bps at …
12th September 2018
Rates of rental and capital value growth are set to slow in Scandinavia and Switzerland, but Copenhagen industrial property still looks attractive. Total returns will be higher in Emerging Europe, thanks to valuations that are less stretched than in …
7th September 2018
The pace of economic growth in the euro-zone economy appears to have peaked in this cycle. At the same time, commercial property markets look to be plateauing as investment volumes track sideways and prime yields appear close to their likely floor. While …
Property yields ticked down only slightly again in Q2, but there were more meaningful shifts in the yields of other assets. Safe-haven markets generally saw an improvement in property valuations. However, higher bond and dividend yields in riskier markets …
31st August 2018
In the middle of last year, Helsinki offices stood out as a strong late-cycle play. But with the positive yield gap to Stockholm now closed, that opportunity has passed. Nevertheless, in the absence of a shock, we expect prime offices in the city to …
29th August 2018
Office capital values in Germany appear to be on an inexorable upward path. Although a sharp correction seems unlikely, there are good reasons to believe that they will peak in 2018. … How much further can German office values …
22nd August 2018
The second quarter of the year saw further signs that the euro-zone property market upswing is close to an end. With a 5% annual fall in investment, activity is now starting to track sideways on a four-quarter rolling basis. Very few office and retail …
15th August 2018
Economic growth recovered somewhat in Western Europe, but slowed further in emerging Europe in Q2. Occupier activity has still been strong, but rates of rental growth slowed across the board. Similarly, investment volumes dropped off and yield falls were …
Property investment fell back sharply in Q2, keeping our prediction of an annual slowdown in activity firmly on track. Even so, investment will be cooling from levels which are high by historical standards and the breakdown still points to pockets of …
10th August 2018
In this follow-up to our recent Global Economics Focus “Why is property so often the source of trouble?” we assess where in the world the biggest risks to property prices lie. House price falls in a number of places look imminent. And there are several …
8th August 2018
A high volume of completions contributed to the fall in prime office rents in Vienna in the early stages of this year. But as that supply is absorbed, rents should be able to recover again next year. Even so, with capital values peaking, total returns …
7th August 2018
With Turkey’s economy heading for a sharp slowdown, further weakness in the lira and high availability of office space, the decline in prime office rents in Istanbul has further to run. … No Turkish delight for Istanbul office …
3rd August 2018
