Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
With property yields in emerging Europe sitting above their pre-crisis lows and those in central Europe looking relatively well-placed on our valuation measure, we think that yields in the region can continue to edge down next year, by as much as 15bps at …
12th September 2018
Rates of rental and capital value growth are set to slow in Scandinavia and Switzerland, but Copenhagen industrial property still looks attractive. Total returns will be higher in Emerging Europe, thanks to valuations that are less stretched than in …
7th September 2018
The pace of economic growth in the euro-zone economy appears to have peaked in this cycle. At the same time, commercial property markets look to be plateauing as investment volumes track sideways and prime yields appear close to their likely floor. While …
Property yields ticked down only slightly again in Q2, but there were more meaningful shifts in the yields of other assets. Safe-haven markets generally saw an improvement in property valuations. However, higher bond and dividend yields in riskier markets …
31st August 2018
In the middle of last year, Helsinki offices stood out as a strong late-cycle play. But with the positive yield gap to Stockholm now closed, that opportunity has passed. Nevertheless, in the absence of a shock, we expect prime offices in the city to …
29th August 2018
Office capital values in Germany appear to be on an inexorable upward path. Although a sharp correction seems unlikely, there are good reasons to believe that they will peak in 2018. … How much further can German office values …
22nd August 2018
The second quarter of the year saw further signs that the euro-zone property market upswing is close to an end. With a 5% annual fall in investment, activity is now starting to track sideways on a four-quarter rolling basis. Very few office and retail …
15th August 2018
Economic growth recovered somewhat in Western Europe, but slowed further in emerging Europe in Q2. Occupier activity has still been strong, but rates of rental growth slowed across the board. Similarly, investment volumes dropped off and yield falls were …
Property investment fell back sharply in Q2, keeping our prediction of an annual slowdown in activity firmly on track. Even so, investment will be cooling from levels which are high by historical standards and the breakdown still points to pockets of …
10th August 2018
In this follow-up to our recent Global Economics Focus “Why is property so often the source of trouble?” we assess where in the world the biggest risks to property prices lie. House price falls in a number of places look imminent. And there are several …
8th August 2018
A high volume of completions contributed to the fall in prime office rents in Vienna in the early stages of this year. But as that supply is absorbed, rents should be able to recover again next year. Even so, with capital values peaking, total returns …
7th August 2018
With Turkey’s economy heading for a sharp slowdown, further weakness in the lira and high availability of office space, the decline in prime office rents in Istanbul has further to run. … No Turkish delight for Istanbul office …
3rd August 2018
It is now ten years since the property-induced global financial crisis and house prices in many countries are rising rapidly again. So now seems like a good time to assess whether property, residential and commercial, is on course to cause trouble for the …
2nd August 2018
A lack of available space and high rental levels in Amsterdam are boosting office demand in Rotterdam. Investment demand has already increased, but is set to stay strong in the next couple of years, driving the yield gap to Amsterdam lower, helping total …
Strong occupier demand and limited completions have boosted prime Frankfurt office rents. But with demand likely to ease and completions on the rise, this pick-up in rental growth is unlikely to last long. … Pick-up in Frankfurt office rents won’t be …
25th July 2018
European office markets have started the year in buoyant mood, with take-up reaching a post-crisis high, vacancy rates falling and rents climbing by around 2.5%. Nevertheless, as we outlined at the start of the year, we still expect a slowing in momentum …
23rd July 2018
The recent spike in Italian government bond yields is likely to be sustained for the foreseeable future, increasing the risk of a sharper re-pricing for Italian commercial property than we are forecasting. … Higher Italian bond yields increase risks for …
20th July 2018
Growing occupier demand for industrial units close to the German and Austrian borders will offset the slower economic growth that we are expecting in the next few years in the CEE markets. This will prompt growth of the industrial stock in those areas and …
18th July 2018
A lack of good quality space is positive for prime rents in Athens. But with the Greek economy far from being in good health, rental growth prospects will be constrained in spite of the recent economic upturn. … Athens slowly turning a corner, but risks …
13th July 2018
A positive economic outlook for Belgium and a shortage of available Grade A stock bode well for office rents in Brussels. Foreign investors, in particular, are increasing exposure to the market as it also offers above-average income returns. We therefore …
11th July 2018
Prime industrial rents in Dublin jumped by close to 5% in Q1, driven by strong demand. But with Ireland’s economy cooling, and the prospect of increased speculative development, the easing in the rate of rental growth since mid-2016 looks set to continue. …
5th July 2018
Record investment activity in Denmark underscores the positive outlook for returns in Copenhagen, especially in the industrial sector, which we expect to be the best-performing market in Western Europe. … Healthy outlook for returns supports case for …
4th July 2018
As rising US Treasury yields have squeezed US property’s yield gap over the risk-free rate, investment volumes have dropped back and core office yields are rising. While Europe is lagging the US, there are good reasons to believe that European property …
29th June 2018
The Swiss economy is forecast to put in a fairly decent performance over the next couple of years. But with strong office development pipelines, and already high retail rents, we think that the outlook for rental growth in the office and retail sectors is …
28th June 2018
Although prime office yields in Madrid have been flat for the past year, pricing doesn’t appear to be obviously stretched. And while capital value growth is largely done, good rental growth prospects mean that Madrid still looks decent on a risk-return …
22nd June 2018
Over the last decade, Helsinki, Oslo and Stockholm have experienced a reduction in floorspace per employee. As a result, firms have been able to pay higher prime rents than previously. We think that this trend has further to run, meaning that, even though …
15th June 2018
A solid employment growth outlook, combined with relatively small development pipelines will enable a weighted average of Western European office rents to climb by around 8% p.a. in the 2018-20 period. However, a shortage of modern stock in central areas …
12th June 2018
The economic backdrop continues to be supportive of occupier markets, in spite of the euro-zone’s weaker-than-expected start to the year. But with the growth expected to slow, investment volumes treading water, and yield compression fading out, the market …
8th June 2018
The cycle in Scandinavia and Switzerland is showing signs of turning, with investment activity down compared to 2017 and 2016. The prospects are brighter in Emerging Europe, where yields are likely to fall throughout 2018 and even into 2019 in some cities …
In the absence of a sharp surge in euro-zone inflation, a fresh recession or protracted stagnation, or a major escalation of current political tensions, property yields are more likely to drift slowly higher over the next few of years, than to spike. … …
30th May 2018
Retail letting volumes in Germany’s main cities have been trending downwards over the past few years, putting upwards pressure on the spread between prime and secondary yields. With demand for secondary locations more exposed to online competition and a …
25th May 2018
Although property yields ticked down only slightly in Q1, rises in both government bond yields and equity dividend yields meant that property valuations deteriorated. For the first time since we have been producing valuation scores, the majority of our 93 …
23rd May 2018
A number of indicators suggest that the current cycle is running out of steam. Although investment across the euro-zone was up compared to the first quarter of last year, on a four-quarter basis, it appears that it may well have peaked. At the same time, …
18th May 2018
Economic growth is likely to have softened in both Western Europe and Emerging Europe in Q1. Nevertheless, take-up of office space stayed strong and rental values in all three sectors were stable or rose, with the exception of Istanbul. Investment …
Q1 data indicate a rise in prime Dublin retail rents, following last year’s stagnation. With strong demand and supply fundamentals, we think rents will rise further over the next couple of years, but not at the double-digit growth rates that preceded last …
11th May 2018
As the ECB starts to tighten monetary policy, higher risk-free rates are likely to put upward pressure on property yields. However, we think that real equilibrium interest rates are now lower than in the past. As a result, property yields are unlikely to …
8th May 2018
NB. Please download the attached pdf for the full publication with charts. Dire predictions for US shopping centre closures appear relatively well-founded. However, for a variety of reasons – including more defensive lease terms, lower stock per capita …
3rd May 2018
Following last year’s fall in take-up, recent signs that the German economy is coming off the boil raise questions about industrial and logistics demand. However, we think that the economic outlook is still positive. While a lack of available space may …
1st May 2018
Strong demand for industrial space in Bucharest has pushed vacancy down to very low levels. Yet prime rents have been flat for the past 18 months as rising capital values have supported new developments. While rents are likely to continue to mark time …
26th April 2018
As the balance of supply and demand in Amsterdam offices shifts yet further in favour of landlords, we expect the vacancy rate to fall to around 4.5% and prime rents to climb to €450/sqm/yr by the end of 2019, equivalent to a 12% increase from the end of …
19th April 2018
A quick internet search suggests that blockchain technology could have far-reaching changes for a multitude of industries, including commercial property. But even if the technology doesn’t live up to its hype, it could still help to improve the efficiency …
18th April 2018
Demand for office space in Warsaw will continue to grow in the coming years, but this will not be enough to offset around 1m sqm of new stock completing over that same period. In fact, rental value falls are likely to gather speed in 2020 as the economy …
13th April 2018
A shortage of Grade-A stock in the Paris CBD threatens to drive a sharp lift in rental values. However, a large quantity of new supply in the wider Paris Centre-West market this year means that we are sticking to our existing forecast for prime rents to …
9th April 2018
Occupier demand in Milan is likely to stay healthy again this year, supporting further rental growth. But with completions expected to rise and rents close to previous highs, we don’t expect to see a repeat of last year’s 8% jump in rents. … Completions …
5th April 2018
Improved short-term prospects in Stockholm will keep office rents in the city amongst the fastest growing European markets in the next few years. However, with yield falls now at an end, total returns will slow dramatically in the second half of the year …
4th April 2018
Commercial property investment in Germany last year fell just shy of 2007’s record. However, the headline number was inflated by rising capital values and a shift towards larger deals. We think the market will now start to cool as investors become …
29th March 2018
Property yield falls will be limited in Scandinavia this year as the region’s markets are looking increasingly late-cycle. The prospects are somewhat brighter in Emerging Europe, where yields can continue to fall this year in all sectors and, indeed, into …
20th March 2018
The upswing in euro-zone economic growth will underpin occupier demand. However, rising development will act as a headwind for rental growth. Indeed, in the office, retail and industrial sectors, we think rental growth has now peaked. … Rental growth has …
A tightening office market bodes well for prime rents in Moscow. But with poor demographics and unemployment already very low, the labour market will prevent a rapid pick-up in rental growth. … Headwinds loom for Moscow office …
6th March 2018
With transaction volumes having fallen sharply last year and domestic investors looking further afield for value, stretched valuations in Sweden are likely to mean that prime yields have found a floor. … Could Sweden be the canary in the …
28th February 2018
