Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Following a bold start to the year, office take-up in Barcelona looks set to record its strongest year since 2005 which, coupled with falling vacancy rates, should boost rental growth. Indeed, Barcelona is set to outperform its peers for the next few …
25th September 2019
Executive Summary – Our new forecasts reflect Scandinavian prime office yields falling in 2020 and into 2021, on the back of our lower bond yield profile. But retail property in the region faces slight yield rises as risk premia rise. In emerging Europe, …
20th September 2019
Overview – With the euro-zone slowdown underway, we think that the ECB will loosen monetary policy before the year is out, meaning bond yields are set to remain negative for some time. As a result, yield compression in the office and industrial sectors …
11th September 2019
Plummeting bond yields in 2019 have dramatically improved property valuations, supporting the outlook for property prices. Indeed, we now think that euro-zone prime office yields can extend their falls over the next few years, taking the total shift in …
28th August 2019
A second consecutive quarter of sharp falls in bond yields has driven improved valuations in 90 of the 93 markets that we cover. As a result, less than a third of all markets look overvalued, the lowest proportion since the end of 2017. With bond yields …
23rd August 2019
After almost a decade of ultra-low interest rates and rising real estate valuations, concerns have been voiced about the outlook for property. In our view, these worries are not completely unfounded and returns are likely to moderate, but crash fears are, …
21st August 2019
Slower growth in both developed and emerging economies has started to filter through into property occupier markets, with office demand generally lower than a year ago and fewer cities registering rental value increases in the retail and industrial …
19th August 2019
There has been a gradual slowing in rental growth in the last couple of quarters, with a particularly large drop-off in retail rental growth. This has been echoed in the investment market, with all-property yields falling at marginal rates and retail …
As consumer spending growth slows in Poland, we expect retail spending to slow. The effect of this on physical retail outlets will be compounded in secondary locations by a growing share of sales migrating online, as well as the full implementation of the …
12th August 2019
The latest data for German offices suggest a better-than-expected start to 2019, as a result of solid employment growth and tightening supply. This has led us to revisit our office forecasts for the top cities, though we still expect a slowdown of …
5th August 2019
Commercial property investment activity looks likely to drop back slightly from the highs seen last year. But, rather than pointing to a downturn in pricing, we believe that this reflects investors re-evaluating the implications of the softer …
1st August 2019
We have upgraded our forecasts for Portugal’s economy and now expect growth to be above trend in 2019 and 2020. Along with a halving in the size of the Lisbon office development pipeline in the next few years, this has led us to upgrade our rental growth …
29th July 2019
Since last July, the development pipeline in Brussels has grown and prospects for economic growth and thus, occupier demand have nudged lower. While the low availability of Grade A stock will support prime office rental values, Brussels has lost its …
22nd July 2019
With bond yields falling, euro-zone property yield spreads have widened and remain high by historical standards. Admittedly, not all markets enjoy low bond yields, but even in Italy, where spreads have narrowed the most, we do not see any immediate upward …
18th July 2019
The Czech economy has slowed over the past 18 months, which, alongside strong new development, has kept industrial rents in check. But, with signs of renewed vigour in occupier demand and rents already coming under upward pressure due to rising land and …
16th July 2019
IPF Consensus office rent forecasts for 2019 were generally upgraded in their latest iteration, with central Europe seeing a particularly large rise. We also made widespread upgrades to our forecasts in the same six-month period. While our overall …
10th July 2019
With euro-zone bond yields falling, this creates the potential for a further compression of property yields. In our view, there will not be much of an immediate impact, though it is becoming more likely that any upturn in euro-zone property yields further …
5th July 2019
Paris office take-up is likely to drop back a little this year, but with economic growth staying steady, it’s unlikely to fall off a cliff. A fairly restricted supply outlook means that vacancy can stay close to current lows over the next few years, …
4th July 2019
Prague prime high street yields ticked up in Q1 on the back of stretched pricing. Yet, given that bond yields have fallen and the next move for interest rates is expected to be downwards, we think that this will be the full extent of the correction, and …
25th June 2019
The poor performance of retail is the main story in Scandinavian and Swiss markets, contrasting with solid industrial and office returns. In emerging Europe, the retail sector is expected to do better, thanks to solid rental growth and yield compression. …
21st June 2019
With the ECB likely to loosen monetary policy before too long, government bond yields look set to stay at very low levels for some time. As a result, we think that yield compression has a little further to run this year and next. That is, with the …
18th June 2019
Concerns about rental growth prospects appear to be behind rising prime shopping centre yields. While we anticipate high street yields to rise also, a smaller correction will see the yield spread widen further. … Shopping centre yield spread over high …
5th June 2019
With Russian government bond yields expected to continue falling this year, we think that the rise in Moscow office yields in Q1 will prove temporary and that they will end the year at 9%, down from 9.3%. … Rise in Moscow office yields to be …
30th May 2019
Lower government bond and equity dividend yields improved the relative valuation of commercial property assets in Q1. Indeed, less than half of the 93 property markets now appear overvalued, with the office sector recording the largest improvement. With …
29th May 2019
A further slowdown in the rate of yield compression suggests that investors are increasingly nervous about pricing at this late stage of the cycle. We expect this to continue, especially given the softer economic environment. Euro-zone office and …
24th May 2019
Occupier demand is strong in all three sectors, with solid economic growth supporting expansion, although we expect this to slow through the course of the year, dampening rental growth in all sectors. Retailers are facing pressures on costs and, with …
Prime office yields in Berlin have been stable over the past 18 months, in spite of strong rental growth expectations. With tighter monetary policy now some way off, and yields on assets with a similar level of risk back at historical lows, we think …
17th May 2019
Warsaw office demand is likely to slow over the next two years, while completions of new space will increase. But, we still expect to see an overall rise in prime CBD rents in the next few years. … Have Warsaw office rents really turned a …
14th May 2019
In spite of healthy occupier demand of late, poor rental growth prospects mean that total returns from Dublin offices will continue to be amongst the lowest in the euro-zone. … Returns from Dublin offices to slip …
10th May 2019
Western European office rents grew by 5.3% p.a. in 2016-18. We expect them to grow by little more than that over the next three years combined , as occupier demand slows and development completions pick up. This will see the sector’s rental growth …
2nd May 2019
A period of low, but stable growth and historically low interest rates will be supportive of demand for French assets over the next few years. While the retail sector is seeing evidence of some re-pricing, continued growth in demand for logistics assets …
26th April 2019
Limited availability and a small pipeline will support further logistics rental growth in Barcelona. As a result, total returns will outperform those of Madrid and be amongst the highest in the euro-zone. … Rental growth to boost Barcelona logistics …
25th April 2019
With prime rents in Rotterdam expected to grow by 7.5% in the next three years, we expect strong investor demand for the city to drive some of the largest office sector yield falls in Europe. This will see Rotterdam produce total returns of 10% p.a. in …
18th April 2019
Demand for CBD space is starting to reignite prime rental growth in Geneva and Zurich. But a weakening economy and competition from new, well-connected developments will limit further gains in rents. … Swiss office rents to rise, but challenges …
17th April 2019
The continued growth of Copenhagen’s logistics market, set against its low vacancy rate and limited new supply, means that it is one of our strongest markets for both rental growth and yield falls in the next two years. What’s more, over the full forecast …
12th April 2019
A weak economic environment, and occupiers prepared to look outside traditional industrial locations which offer better value for money, will hold back the growth in prime industrial rents. But tight industrial availability around Germany’s main urban …
11th April 2019
Driven by falls in capital values, total returns from office and retail assets in Italy are forecast to be at the bottom of the euro-zone pack. Industrial returns will be better, but still just below the euro-zone average. … Returns from Italian assets to …
4th April 2019
Our latest forecasts paint a bright picture for Stockholm office returns over the next few years, supported by “lower for longer” bond yields and another upgrade to rental value growth. … Stockholm offices deserve renewed …
2nd April 2019
With the euro-zone economy set for a period of weak growth, the outlook for rental growth across the sectors is poor. While this would normally lessen the case for yields to fall further, with risk-free rates expected to stay at very low levels, we think …
29th March 2019
In Scandinavia and Switzerland, retail will be the clear loser over the next few years, whereas Scandinavian office and industrial markets are set to outperform, led by Stockholm. In emerging Europe, the retail sector is set to perform well, with solid …
The odds have tipped towards the ECB re-starting its QE programme next year. This would increase the likelihood of further reductions in euro-zone prime property yields, but, as yet, this expected shift towards QE alone is not enough for us to revise our …
19th March 2019
Near zero low risk-free rates will support Western European office and industrial pricing, despite a softer rental growth outlook. In contrast, with the retail sector also dealing with structural headwinds, we think that a poorer outlook for income …
15th March 2019
The recent poor performance of “average” retail property will persist over the next few years as investors shy away from risky cash flows. However, we also expect prime high streets to underperform the other sectors, as a handful of markets see softening …
13th March 2019
Helsinki CBD office returns are set to underperform the rest of the city in 2019-20, as the hunt for yield sees investors drive secondary yields lower. However, with prime rents forecast to grow by 3% p.a. in 2019-21, we still see prime CBD offices …
7th March 2019
Over the last year, UK all-property yields have risen above those in the euro-zone for the first time in a decade and we think this gap will widen. This crossover is unusual, but it largely reflects differences in monetary conditions. … Are we too …
4th March 2019
In light of the changes to our valuation weightings this quarter, many markets are closer to fair value than in our last Valuation Monitor . That said, the majority of property markets (51 out of 93) are still overvalued, with valuations against equities …
1st March 2019
With consumer spending growth slowing and the boost to households from rising house prices fading, we think that prime high street rents in Dublin are likely to plateau over the next couple of years. … Weaker retail outlook to hold Dublin …
26th February 2019
The slowdown in euro-zone growth means that rental growth will be weaker and that bond yields are likely to be lower. The net effect of these factors is a downward revision to our forecasts for office yields, which we now expect to be below their current …
22nd February 2019
After two strong years for Lisbon office rents, a rise in development activity, alongside fading occupier demand, is set to curb rental growth in 2020. What’s more, rents could potentially fall in 2021. … Office rental growth in Lisbon to stall in …
19th February 2019
Occupier markets are seeing diverging fortunes, with occupier demand for office and industrial space extremely strong, but retailers battling a number of headwinds. This is likely to set the tone for rental performance in 2019, although slower economic …
15th February 2019
