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After recording a small surplus in 2014, we expect the tin market to plunge back into deficit this year and prices to rise. As such, any attempt by Indonesia’s producers to curb exports may be unnecessary. … Tin prices to rise even without an Indonesian …
5th March 2015
A lack of Chinese buyers because of the new year holiday was a key factor weighing on metals prices in February. Only copper prices rose, perhaps in part reflecting encouraging economic data out of the euro-zone and China. … Copper provides a glimmer of …
4th March 2015
US oil stocks increase by the largest amount in over a decade, but fears about storage capacity constraints seem overdone. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
A deal between Iran and the West which allows for the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil exports is looking more likely. However, as always, the devil is in the detail. The most likely scenario in our view is a gradual return of Iranian exports over the …
Concerns about demand coupled with the return of South African production are weighing on platinum prices. However, we think that demand will pick up, particularly in China, and that platinum prices will rise this year. … Will platinum prices …
3rd March 2015
The price of Brent staged a remarkable rebound early in the month, while the copper price also made up some lost ground, with the result that the GSCI commodities index managed to outperform US equities in February. … Commodities on the way …
2nd March 2015
Metals prices have shown some of the largest gains in the past week, benefitting from some better news on the global economy including stronger manufacturing PMI surveys in China and the euro-zone. Gold prices have been stable despite fading fears of an …
27th February 2015
The announcement that the Thai government is planning to clear its rice stockpiles in just two years should put significant downward pressure on rice prices over this time period. … Faster sales of Thailand’s rice stocks should pull down …
Lower bauxite availability, owing to the Indonesian export ban, and dwindling Chinese stocks will impede alumina production this year, leading to higher prices. … Bauxite shortfall to support alumina …
The Indian government’s budget, to be unveiled this weekend, is widely expected to include a cut in the import duty on gold. This should provide a further boost to the local market following clarification of the rules on the amounts of gold that can be …
We do not expect the latest dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas to disrupt the supply to Western Europe. But even if did, the EU should still be able to cope reasonably well as warmer weather reduces seasonal demand for gas and alternative …
Copper has fallen dramatically out of favour since the start of 2015. Prices have dropped nearly 10% since the beginning of the year. Projections of strong growth in mine supply and concerns about demand, particularly from China, have led to investor …
26th February 2015
We doubt that there will be an extraordinary meeting of OPEC anytime soon and, even if there is, policy is unlikely to change. The cartel’s current strategy of tolerating price falls to protect market share over the longer term appears to be working. …
The latest data show that US oil stocks are climbing at an increasing rate as maintenance work at refineries means that even more oil is funnelled into storage. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
25th February 2015
A fast-changing regulatory background is becoming increasingly important to global energy markets. In this Energy Watch, we examine how the recent fall in oil prices has affected the outlook for US energy exports, both of oil and gas, and how these …
Today’s February PMI data provide further evidence that China’s economy is stabilising. Fading fears of a “hard landing” should therefore support the prices of industrial commodities, especially metals. The latest PMIs from the euro-zone, US and Japan …
Even though industrial metals prices were dragged lower by the fall in the price of oil last year, they have yet to benefit from Brent’s recent recovery. Indeed, the futures curves for most industrial metals have fallen further over the past month. … …
24th February 2015
The preliminary 2014 data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) show another year of deficit in the global zinc market, while the lead market was effectively in balance. With production of both metals expected to struggle this year, …
Weather-related factors were responsible for the biggest moves in individual commodity prices in the past week: a cold snap in the US drove up the cost of natural gas, while further rains across key growing areas of Brazil undermined the price of arabica …
20th February 2015
Aluminium price premiums should fall in 2015 based on supply and demand fundamentals. Admittedly, they have not been easy to justify on these grounds for some time. But we think changing dynamics in the market this year should finally pave the way for …
Today’s US weekly export sales data show a further slump in demand for US wheat. And while exports of soybeans also fell sharply, this is likely, at least in part, to be due to seasonal factors related to the Chinese New Year holiday. … USDA Weekly Export …
World Steel Association (WSA) data for January 2015 showed a fall in global steel output, led by Asian producers. It could be that the oversupply in the Chinese market is at last leading to producer cutbacks. … Global Steel Production (Jan. …
The much-hyped “super-cycle” of rising commodity prices, driven by rapid growth in China since the early 2000s, probably ended some years ago. Future cycles are likely to be smaller in magnitude, and shorter in length. Nonetheless, commodities are still …
Agricultural commodities have faced a number of opposing pressures over the last month, including the further strengthening of the US dollar and the partial recovery in the price of crude oil. But supply-related issues were the main driver of price …
There is no sign of a drop off in US oil production in the latest data, nor any pick-up in demand, as US oil stocks surge again. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
19th February 2015
The demand for gold often follows a seasonal pattern due to the timing of festivals associated with gift-giving, such as the Chinese New Year. But the calendar appears to have little impact on the price of gold on global markets. Indeed, there are …
A combination of lower production and higher demand means that US natural gas prices should rise over the next few years, regardless of the weather. … US natural gas to burn brighter this …
18th February 2015
Today’s 2% fall means that gold has now given up most of its price gains from earlier this year. This is perhaps surprising given the ongoing uncertainty over Greece and the conflict in Ukraine, but for now the markets appear to be paying more attention …
17th February 2015
Falling ore stocks at China’s ports and lower ore exports from the Philippines are likely to curb Chinese refined nickel output this year. Given steady demand growth, prices should rebound. … Dwindling surpluses to boost nickel …
The rally in coal prices this year is unlikely to be the start of a sustained turnaround in fortunes for the beleaguered market. Stronger demand from India may continue to support prices over the next few months but declining Chinese imports and a …
The further decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), to its lowest level since the series was first compiled in 1985, provides some more colour on current trends in the supply and demand for ships and in trade flows. Nonetheless, the BDI adds little to what …
16th February 2015
US wheat exports have struggled this year as the rising US dollar reduces competitiveness. We think the same could happen to soybean exports as the South American harvest gets under way. … Strong dollar likely to dent US soybean …
The rebound in global oil prices has lifted Brent crude back to $61 per barrel, slightly above our existing forecast for the end of the year but consistent with our central scenario of a recovery to $70 over the medium term. With declining rig counts in …
13th February 2015
It would be wrong to write off gold this year purely on the basis that the Fed is likely to start to raise interest rates, probably in June. We expect the withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the US to be gradual, leaving plenty of scope for other, more …
The rebound in the price of Brent over the last two weeks supports our view that oil prices will gradually climb back to around $70 per barrel over the medium term helped on their way by further evidence of reductions in investment. However, we do not …
Expectations of strong growth in US and Chinese auto output and sales in 2015 underpin our forecast of a recovery in palladium prices. At the same time, supply remains constrained. … Strong demand to lift palladium …
Concerns about global growth prospects, and particularly the slowdown in China, have reportedly been a key factor in the recent falls in metals prices. However, we would argue that these fears are overdone and that physical metals demand will hold up …
12th February 2015
The main story since the beginning of the year has been the recovery in the price of oil, which is now 20% above its recent lows, reflecting the first signs of supply cuts in response to the previous drop. This year has also seen a rebound in coal prices, …
Lower input costs, weakening demand and overproduction led to sharp falls in Chinese steel prices over the last year. In our view, these factors will continue to weigh on the Chinese steel market in 2015, suggesting that prices could fall further. … …
Another week of record stock levels and production will disappoint those hoping that last week’s surge in prices was the start of a new bull market. However, the rate of growth of stocks and output is showing signs of slowing. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
11th February 2015
In spite of higher forecast demand, the USDA has also revised up its estimates of year-end stocks for corn and wheat. And with ample soybean supplies, we continue to expect prices of all three to fall. … Higher demand can’t offset rise in …
Stock movements, in general, continue to tell us more about the attractiveness of holding commodity assets off-market rather than anything about underlying physical demand. However, low official stocks are an additional factor supporting our view that the …
10th February 2015
Oversupply in the oil market will probably continue until demand picks up and US oil production growth begins to ease off in the summer. This will limit the upside for prices in the coming months. … Oil glut likely to continue in the first half of …
2014 was the fourth successive year of poor performance by commodities, especially relative to bonds and equities, but we believe 2015 will be the year when many finally turn the corner. The recent slump in oil prices was a long overdue correction that …
9th February 2015
The price of US wheat posted its first weekly rise since mid-December last week, rallying close to 5%. However, with ample global supplies, we think this rise will prove to be temporary. … Lift in wheat price is not the start of an upward …
While China’s commodity import volumes dipped in January, they are still holding up. With the exception of coal, the latest data underpin our expectation that China’s commodity imports will continue to grow this year albeit at a slower pace. … China’s …
Oil prices have rebounded by over 20% in the last week during a period of highly volatile trading. The rally was sparked by growing evidence of declining US rig counts and multiple announcements of capital spending cuts by oil firms. This prompted short …
6th February 2015
If nothing else changes, earlier hikes in interest rates by the US central bank would be likely to undermine the prices of precious metals, notably gold and silver. The 2% fall in the gold price after the strong US employment report today underlines the …
Abundant supplies of many agricultural commodities and concerns about weak demand are likely to be behind the general deterioration in sentiment towards agriculturals in recent weeks. Indeed, there has been a strong shift down in the futures curves for …
Indonesia’s efforts to dictate the tin market look increasingly futile as China finds a new source of tin ore and lifts domestic refined production. However, despite the changing dynamics, the bigger picture is still of a relatively tight market, which …
5th February 2015
