Filtered by Subscriptions: Commodities Use setting Commodities
It has been a disappointing week for commodity prices, against a backdrop of a stronger dollar and the likelihood of an imminent rate hike in the US. The strong US employment report on Friday removed the last obstacle to Fed tightening. Investor selling …
10th March 2017
The big story this month is an unexpected surge in LME copper stocks, which appears to be related to investors closing long positions in the futures market. At the same time, China’s exchange stocks have continued to rise, pointing to lacklustre demand. … …
After rising for most of February, gold prices have slumped in recent days, falling below the $1,200 per ounce mark, on expectations that the Fed will press ahead with a rate hike next week. We expect prices to fall further over the coming months as the …
A return to more normal levels of volatility in oil prices seems likely over the next few months as investors question the effectiveness of OPEC’s production cuts. However, we still expect prices to recover in the second half of the year as demand …
Oil prices were remarkably quiet in February. Indeed, the price of Brent moved by less than $2 per barrel during the month, but prices have fallen so far in March. February proved to be a more volatile month for the prices of most other energy …
9th March 2017
While we have been positive on the prospects for cobalt prices for some time now, we think that the most recent rally is overdone. Admittedly, the market is tightening. But, in our view, the move-up in prices to the highest level since November 2008 has …
8th March 2017
In late February, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first assessment of the prospects for US crops in 2017/18. In this Commodities Watch, we will discuss the USDA’s forecasts and what we think they imply for prices. Although, so far, …
Crude oil stocks rose sharply last week as imports and output increased and inputs to refineries fell. But product stocks declined by even more, as demand edged higher. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
China’s commodity import volumes remained strong in February, despite generally higher prices. However, we are reluctant to read too much into the data given the usual seasonal distortions. … China’s commodity imports holding up …
The big news this week was the ratcheting up of expectations of an imminent rate hike by the Fed, which weighed on most commodity prices. That said, the prices of US grains and soybeans rose, on optimism that President Trump will support the biofuels …
3rd March 2017
The prices of some industrial metals eased back in February, but the bigger picture is that they broadly held on to the gains made in January. A combination of optimism about demand, notably in the US and China, and concerns over supply supported prices. …
US crude oil inventories increased again last week, for the eighth consecutive week. On the other hand, gasoline and distillate stocks fell. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
1st March 2017
Both the official and unofficial February manufacturing PMIs for China surprised on the upside. However, much of the growth was driven by higher export orders, which we think are unlikely to be sustained. Moreover, signs of a slowdown in construction is …
Most commodity prices traded in a narrow range last month, in the absence of clarity on developments in China (owing to the Lunar New Year Holiday) and on US policy direction. That said, the price of gold was a beneficiary of the heightened uncertainty. … …
The latest import data out of China and India show weak demand for gold in the two largest consumers. While China’s data could be distorted by the timing of the New Year, in India the liquidity crunch continues to weigh on gold imports. … China and …
27th February 2017
The price of spot LNG in Asia has been in freefall in recent weeks as temporary supply outages have been resolved and demand has cooled. We expect prices to fall further given ongoing expansions to output. … Surging supply to keep a lid on LNG …
Commodity prices were broadly unchanged this week, aside from a few notable exceptions. Cobalt was the star performer as concerns about supply and expectations of strong demand led to a surge in prices, albeit in a relatively thin market. Elsewhere, the …
24th February 2017
Optimism about demand, fuelled by a pick-up in China’s activity data and the prospect of fiscal stimulus in the US, continues to buoy investor sentiment in the industrial metals markets. However, there are now signs that China’s economy is starting to …
China’s metals imports were broadly weak in January. This is in line with the most recent activity data which show that the Chinese economy, while still holding up well, may have lost some momentum in January. That said, shifts in the timing of the …
US crude oil inventories increased last week, marking seven weeks of consecutive gains, though at a slower rate. On the other hand, gasoline stocks fell. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
23rd February 2017
Donald Trump’s proposed restrictions and tariffs on trade could cause turmoil in both the domestic and international energy markets if enacted. This Energy Watch takes a first look at what some of the possible implications of a general import tariff or …
22nd February 2017
World Steel Association (WSA) data, released this afternoon, show a 7% y/y rise in global steel output in January. Production in all major producing regions rose, which is in stark contrast to the start of 2016, when output fell sharply. … Global Steel …
21st February 2017
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 11.4% y/y last month, up from 7.8% y/y in December, led by a 19% y/y surge in China’s production. … Global Aluminium Production …
20th February 2017
While a slight weakening of the US dollar provided some support to prices this week, individual demand and supply fundamentals were the main drivers. Oil prices fell as a further rise in US stocks overshadowed the more positive news of OPEC’s good …
17th February 2017
China’s exchange stocks have soared since the start of the year on a combination of optimism about demand and concerns about supply. … Stocks continue to build in …
16th February 2017
US crude oil inventories continued to rise last week, albeit at a slower rate than in the previous one. Gasoline stocks also increased, after a small reduction a week earlier. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
15th February 2017
Oversupply has been plaguing the silver market for the past ten years. However, the latest data show that production cuts across the industrial and precious metal industries are starting to take their toll on silver mine supply. We expect silver output to …
High prices are spurring iron ore production at a time when we think demand will start to slow. As such, the recent rally in prices appears unsustainable. … Why are we so negative on the outlook for iron ore …
The prices of most commodities have risen since the start of the year, boosted by optimism about demand and, in some cases, disrupted supply. A period of weakness in the US dollar has helped, but the dollar has strengthened recently. Indeed, we are wary …
14th February 2017
Oil price increases following production cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC countries stand to be partially tempered by higher US shale oil output. Improved efficiency in the industry means that oil producers are well-placed to increase output in response to …
OPEC’s oil production dropped sharply in January as the group’s new output quota came into force. However, Iran, Libya and Nigeria continued to increase output. … OPEC reins in …
13th February 2017
Nickel ore supply is likely to fall this year which underpins our forecast of a rise in refined nickel prices. But the scale of any rally will be constrained by high prevailing stocks. … Uncertain ore supply to support nickel …
Most commodity prices rose this week despite a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. The latest data on Chinese trade, released today, show that commodity import volumes jumped in January but this could be largely due to seasonal effects since the Chinese …
10th February 2017
Commodity prices continued their strong run in the early weeks of 2017, but we are concerned that investor optimism may fade in the months ahead. Prices have been buoyed by the pick-up in China’s economic activity and the likelihood of fiscal stimulus and …
China’s commodity import volumes jumped in January, despite a further fall in the renminbi vis-à-vis the US dollar. However, the most recent activity data show that the Chinese economy, while still holding up well, may have lost some momentum at the start …
Strong growth in demand for oil and a reduction in stocks should push prices higher over the rest of this year. However, rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar are likely to act as headwinds, preventing oil prices from rising too far. … Will a …
9th February 2017
South Africa’s overall mine production fell in 2016, with all the main metals seeing a drop in output. The PGM market appears finally to be tightening but we think that it will take some time to rise further, owing to high stocks. … South Africa’s Mine …
US crude oil inventories rose by a near record level last week. But stocks of gasoline were drawn down a little. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
8th February 2017
Global gold demand rose 2% y/y in 2016 to reach a three-year high of 4,309 tonnes. This increase was predominantly the result of strong safe-haven demand in the first half of the year. In 2017, we expect gold prices to be mainly driven by changes in US …
Donald Trump’s foreign policy, especially regarding the Middle East, is likely to have a bigger impact on oil prices in the near term than changes to domestic energy policies. … US foreign policy is a major upside risk for oil …
6th February 2017
Most commodity prices took a bit of a hit this morning as China raised its short-term interest rate, in a clear sign that supporting growth is no longer the primary immediate goal of policymakers. Indeed, the manufacturing PMIs for January dipped, …
3rd February 2017
The prices of most metals rose last month (see Chart), buoyed by ongoing investor buying and expectations of strong demand in China and the US. The decision by the Fed to keep rates on hold in January, coupled with the uncertainty around President Trump’s …
Demand for gold in the two main consumers – China and India – plummeted in 2016 on a combination of higher prices, increased regulation in India and lower appetite for gold jewellery in China. Looking forward, we expect overall demand to remain subdued …
After finishing 2016 on a high, oil prices were relatively stable in January as investors were waiting to see whether OPEC is complying with its deal to cut output. Elsewhere, a jump in economic activity in China at the end of last year was not enough to …
2nd February 2017
There have been some large moves in stocks, notably in Shanghai, over the last month. Stockbuilding was evident in China which may have been a symptom of weak demand, but we think it is more likely to be a reflection of optimism about future demand. … …
Inventories of both crude oil and gasoline rose by more than expected last week. But the focus remains on OPEC. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
1st February 2017
Commodity prices were remarkably stable in January, considering the flurry of executive orders by the new US president, Donald Trump. Data showing that China ended 2016 on a strong note was a key factor supporting the more industrial commodities. …
For the most part, the prices of agricultural commodities in US dollar terms rose in 2016, owing to a combination of weather-related supply disruptions, rising oil prices and some weakness in the US dollar. In this Commodities Watch, we will briefly …
31st January 2017
There are a number of risks which could see oil prices slump back below $40 per barrel in the first half of this year. However, our central forecast is that the prices of Brent and WTI will dip a little over the next few months, before rebounding to $60 …
While we had always been positive on the outlook for metals in 2016, even we were surprised by the scale of the rally. Indeed, we are now concerned that the prevailing optimism about demand for industrial metals could prove unfounded. At the same time, we …
30th January 2017
