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There was across-the-board strength in China’s June activity and investment data, which helps to explain the recent resilience of industrial metals prices. However, we still expect ongoing policy tightening to lead to somewhat lower activity in the second …
18th July 2017
The prices of most commodities, with the exception of agriculturals, rose this week. Data showing strong Chinese import demand gave a boost to the prices of industrials, while a further drop in US crude stocks boosted oil prices. What’s more, US inflation …
14th July 2017
US gasoline prices have been volatile so far this year but have generally followed oil prices lower. This Energy Watch examines the prospects for US gasoline demand over the rest of this year and into next. We then examine what this might mean for …
Despite relatively strong demand from industrial applications and dwindling mine supply, the price of silver has recently fallen to the lowest level since April 2016. In this Metals Watch, we look at the most recent developments in the silver market and …
PGM output continued to fall in May as years of underinvestment have started to take their toll on production. The release of the new Mining Charter, if unchanged, is only likely to worsen what is already a pretty bleak outlook for South Africa’s PGM …
13th July 2017
China’s commodity import demand has generally been strong so far in 2017. However, stocks of many industrial commodities are high suggesting that underlying demand may be somewhat weaker. Indeed, we expect activity to slow in the second half which is …
Crude oil stocks plunged last week by the largest amount so far this year. Another rise in refinery runs, in tandem with a decline in net imports, contributed to stocks falling below 500 million barrels for the first time since January. … US Weekly …
With the fading prospect of mine closures in the Philippines, the outlook for nickel supply is improving. At the same time, demand is expected to weaken this year. However, we think that the deterioration in fundamentals is now largely factored into …
12th July 2017
Another surge in production in Nigeria and Libya boosted total OPEC production last month. Looking ahead, the group expects non-OPEC supply growth to accelerate next year. … OPEC output surges …
This week started on a positive note with news that both the official and unofficial China manufacturing PMIs turned up in June. However, a bumper increase in US June non-farm payrolls on Friday weighed on commodities prices, as it raises the prospect of …
7th July 2017
Inventories of both crude and gasoline dropped sharply last week as demand picked up and imports fell back. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
6th July 2017
New supply prospects in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) could ease the current tightness in the cobalt market. Admittedly, the country’s mine practices are controversial and there is a risk that government intervention and geopolitical tensions …
Advancements in fuel efficiency, an increasing number of electric vehicles and the introduction of automated vehicles should mean that demand for oil in developed countries peaks over the next decade. However, fast growth in demand for travel in the …
Oil prices fell for most of last month as rising production in the US and in some OPEC countries weighed on investor sentiment. However, falling US stocks and a slight dip in the number of US drilling rigs for the first time this year boosted oil prices …
4th July 2017
The prices of most industrial metals rose last month, supported by some weakness in the US dollar and more encouraging data out of China. Although activity there slowed in the second quarter, there were at least signs of stabilisation in June. In …
A tentative revival in China’s economic activity late in the second quarter gave a renewed lift to the prices of the more industrial metals in June. However, it failed to translate into higher physical demand for gold. It was also not enough to support …
3rd July 2017
After diverging in May, the official and unofficial June manufacturing PMIs for China told a similar story of somewhat stronger activity in the final month of the quarter. However, the bigger picture is that growth is slowing, which we expect to continue …
South Africa’s controversial new mining charter will probably exacerbate the decline in the PGM sector. Higher costs, in tandem with lower foreign investment, could weigh on PGM production going forward. … How will South Africa’s mining charter affect PGM …
It has been a relatively quiet week although the prices of most commodities rose, supported by a further depreciation of the US dollar. The precious metals were the relative underperformers, perhaps concerned about the rises in US and European bond …
30th June 2017
US shale production growth is likely to slow sharply towards the end of the year as the recent low prices cap the number of drilling rigs. What’s more, fewer efficiency gains will start to weigh on output. … Will US shale continue to flood the oil …
29th June 2017
Another rise in net imports contributed to a slight increase in crude oil inventories last week. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks fell in spite of weak demand for petroleum products. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
28th June 2017
After a strong start to 2017, growth in China’s refinery output appears to be slowing. This corroborates broader activity and investment data, which have lost some momentum going into the second quarter. … China Industrial Metals Output Monitor …
Given Africa’s large size and geographic diversity, most of the world’s key agricultural commodities are produced somewhere on the continent. In this Commodities Watch, we first discuss the importance of Africa for global agricultural commodity markets, …
Volatility in commodity markets is likely to remain lower than average for the next year. The main exception could be the oil market where any change in tack by OPEC would cause sharp moves in prices. … Low volatility here to …
27th June 2017
The latest trade data show gold imports moved in opposing directions in the two largest consumers last month. The fall in China’s gold imports suggests weaker underlying demand, while India’s imports continued to surge ahead of the implementation of the …
26th June 2017
The price of copper has been trading in a fairly narrow range in the last few weeks, but is still significantly higher than at the start of 2016. In this Metals Watch, we discuss the main drivers of the price of copper, with a particular focus on the …
The price of Brent fell below $45 per barrel this week, reflecting investor concerns about oversupply. In contrast, the prices of most industrial metals rose, despite little in the way of positive news. It may be that the rally in Chinese equities boosted …
23rd June 2017
Fears about unrelenting growth in US oil production have pulled down oil prices again, despite stocks beginning to fall. However, faster demand growth combined with OPEC’s production cuts should be enough to give prices a temporary boost in the second …
22nd June 2017
Crude stocks fell again last week. However, production and net imports both rose. Meanwhile, higher demand prompted a fall in gasoline inventories. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
21st June 2017
Increased speculative activity appears to have been the main driver of the recent surge in the price of palladium, which reached a sixteen-year high of $910 per ounce on 9th June. However, fundamentals suggest that prices will fall back in the coming …
Global oil demand was disappointing in the first quarter of this year. Indeed, this is one reason why prices have continued to fall despite OPEC and some major non-OPEC producers extending their output cuts until March 2018. However, there are signs that …
The main commodity indices have edged lower this year but the headline figures mask very diverse underlying price movements. Looking ahead, we think that the macroeconomic backdrop for commodities contains some positives, including stronger global growth, …
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.7% y/y rise in global steel production in May, down from 5.0% in April. Nonetheless, this still compares very favourably with the 0.8% increase in steel output in 2016. … Global Steel Production …
20th June 2017
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output rose by 4.8% y/y last month, down from 6.4% y/y a month earlier. However, unlike in April when the growth was all in China, output picked up in all regions in May. … …
Exchange stocks generally fell over the last month. The bigger picture is that there have been sharp drawdowns in global exchange stocks of aluminium and zinc and a large build in copper inventories so far this year. Total stocks of nickel and tin are …
19th June 2017
It has been a poor week for most commodity prices. The Fed’s decision to hike interest rates on Wednesday weighed on the prices of gold and industrial metals. Oil prices continued to drop, partly due to concerns about weak US gasoline demand. Elsewhere, …
16th June 2017
The price of gold was largely unaffected by the Fed’s decision to raise its policy rate target by 25bp, to between 1.00% and 1.25%, yesterday. While many have attributed the resilience in the gold price to strong safe-haven demand, there is little …
15th June 2017
Hotter weather and faster economic growth have led to hopes that demand for coal will rise this year. However, improvements in energy efficiency and the rapid growth in renewable power mean that coal demand probably won’t benefit by as much as it would …
China’s activity data were broadly stable in May, but a slowdown in construction starts and growth in investment do not bode well for future metals demand. … China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor …
Crude inventories resumed their downward trend last week, but gasoline stocks increased on the back of low demand and high refinery output. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
14th June 2017
It has been a dismal few weeks for commodity prices. Prices have generally fallen amid signs of somewhat slower Chinese growth and concerns about subdued growth in oil demand and still-high stocks. While we expect a more concerted drawdown of stocks to …
India is one of the world’s largest consumers of gold and relies solely on imports to meet domestic gold demand. This has, at times, resulted in a deepening of the country’s current account deficit, pressuring policymakers to find a way to reduce the …
The likelihood that China will start exporting refined tin in much larger quantities should ease the relatively tight supply picture outside China. As such, we have revised down our end-2017 price forecast. … Tightness in tin likely to …
13th June 2017
Higher production in Nigeria and Libya boosted total OPEC production last month. However, stocks continued to fall and the group revised down its expectations for non-OPEC output this year. … OPEC output …
Crude oil prices have slumped again recently, despite OPEC agreeing to extend its output cuts by nine months. This Energy Watch sets out our view on what will happen to supply and demand over the next eighteen months and what this is likely to mean for …
12th June 2017
Oil prices fell again this week on persistent concerns that the market remains oversupplied. Most metals prices also slipped, despite China’s May trade data showing robust growth in commodity imports. Meanwhile, and perhaps surprisingly, the price of gold …
9th June 2017
It now appears likely that the European economy will record the strongest growth in nearly a decade in 2017. While Europe cannot compete with China or the US in terms of the likely impact on commodities demand, this still represents a positive for prices. …
PGM output had a strong start to the year but the latest figures suggest that it has already started to wane. We expect production to fall in the remainder of the year as the platinum price treads water and mining firms close loss-making operations. … …
8th June 2017
China’s commodity import volumes bounced back in May, after a weak April. However, we doubt that this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery. Slower credit growth is expected to lead to weaker economic activity in the coming quarters, which will …
Stocks of both crude oil and gasoline unexpectedly rose last week, driven by a rebound in crude imports and a slump in demand. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
7th June 2017
