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Global gold demand fell to the lowest level since 2009 in the first half of 2017. Higher prices, fading geopolitical risks and soft jewellery fabrication were the main factors behind the weakness in consumption. We expect appetite for gold to remain …
3rd August 2017
It was generally good news for energy commodities in July. Oil prices jumped as stocks in the US slumped, the market grew concerned about the possibility of sanctions on Venezuela and the dollar fell sharply against most other major currencies. Meanwhile, …
Another increase in refinery runs led to a fall in crude oil stocks last week. We expect refinery runs to remain high in the coming weeks. This should lead to a sharp drawdown in inventories and help the market to rebalance. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
2nd August 2017
A weaker US dollar and stronger Chinese economic data boosted metals prices last month. Aluminium was the only exception. (See Chart.) In most cases, industrial metals prices are now more aligned with fundamentals. But, slower growth in China in the …
The prices of most commodities rose last month. In part, this was due to a weaker dollar. But stronger economic activity data for China also played a role. We think that growth in China is likely to slow over the coming months and, therefore, expect the …
1st August 2017
While the unofficial PMI data point to an acceleration in economic growth in July, we don’t think that the upturn will be sustained, given the increasing headwinds from policy tightening. This view underpins our forecast that the prices of most industrial …
This week, the prices of most commodities benefited from a further weakening of the US dollar and data showing that China’s growth accelerated in Q2. But individual fundamentals also played a role. In particular, a sharp fall in US crude and gasoline …
28th July 2017
Exchange stocks of most metals fell over the last month. With the exception of copper and tin, inventories are now substantially lower than at the start of the year, pointing to tightening markets. That said, higher prices have been incentivising …
27th July 2017
A surge in demand for US natural gas from Mexico and Canada as well as bourgeoning shipments of LNG to Europe and Asia should give a boost to natural gas prices over the next year. … Strong export demand to support US natural gas …
The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports rose in June. Nonetheless, we think that demand will lose momentum in the second half of the year as slower growth in China and a new tax regime in India weigh on consumption. … China and …
The fourth consecutive weekly drop in commercial crude stocks in the US provides further evidence that OPEC’s output cuts are starting to have an impact on inventory levels. We expect this trend to continue over the next few months which should help to …
26th July 2017
China’s detailed trade data, released yesterday, revealed that metals demand was strong in the first six months of the year, which helps to explain the recent price rallies. That said, we expect policy tightening to lead to somewhat slower growth in the …
25th July 2017
Last month, the spread between arabica and robusta coffee prices fell to its lowest level in over ten years. Elsewhere, France recently announced that it will curb the use of palm oil in biofuels owing to environmental concerns. In this Commodities Watch, …
Commodity prices have held up well over the last quarter, encouraged by positive economic data out of China, falling expectations of US interest rate rises and signs that crude oil stocks are finally starting to drop. Looking ahead, the picture is more …
24th July 2017
This week started on a positive note for industrial commodities with strong June activity and investment data out of China. A weaker US dollar was also supporting commodity prices, more generally. That said, the star performers were agriculturals as the …
21st July 2017
The oil market’s attention is firmly on rising production in the US and the outlook for stocks there. However, there are a number of risks elsewhere which are potentially being overlooked and which could cause sharp movements in prices. … Four key risks …
20th July 2017
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.5% y/y rise in global steel production in the first half of 2017, which compares favourably with the 0.8% rise in 2016. … Global Steel Production …
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 7.1% y/y last month, up from 4.8% y/y a month earlier. … Global Aluminium Production …
Investors have turned more positive on the outlook for commodity prices in the last month, reflected in a general rise in net-long futures positions. Sentiment has improved on the back of strong Chinese import and activity data and a weaker US dollar. …
19th July 2017
Another large drop in crude stocks provides further evidence that the market is slowly starting to rebalance. Gasoline stocks also fell as output from refineries dropped back. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
Coal prices have been boosted recently by a series of temporary factors. However, supply is growing quickly, which is raising the risk of a sharp drop in prices once demand drops back. … Government intervention in the coal market could …
18th July 2017
There was across-the-board strength in China’s June activity and investment data, which helps to explain the recent resilience of industrial metals prices. However, we still expect ongoing policy tightening to lead to somewhat lower activity in the second …
The prices of most commodities, with the exception of agriculturals, rose this week. Data showing strong Chinese import demand gave a boost to the prices of industrials, while a further drop in US crude stocks boosted oil prices. What’s more, US inflation …
14th July 2017
US gasoline prices have been volatile so far this year but have generally followed oil prices lower. This Energy Watch examines the prospects for US gasoline demand over the rest of this year and into next. We then examine what this might mean for …
Despite relatively strong demand from industrial applications and dwindling mine supply, the price of silver has recently fallen to the lowest level since April 2016. In this Metals Watch, we look at the most recent developments in the silver market and …
PGM output continued to fall in May as years of underinvestment have started to take their toll on production. The release of the new Mining Charter, if unchanged, is only likely to worsen what is already a pretty bleak outlook for South Africa’s PGM …
13th July 2017
China’s commodity import demand has generally been strong so far in 2017. However, stocks of many industrial commodities are high suggesting that underlying demand may be somewhat weaker. Indeed, we expect activity to slow in the second half which is …
Crude oil stocks plunged last week by the largest amount so far this year. Another rise in refinery runs, in tandem with a decline in net imports, contributed to stocks falling below 500 million barrels for the first time since January. … US Weekly …
With the fading prospect of mine closures in the Philippines, the outlook for nickel supply is improving. At the same time, demand is expected to weaken this year. However, we think that the deterioration in fundamentals is now largely factored into …
12th July 2017
Another surge in production in Nigeria and Libya boosted total OPEC production last month. Looking ahead, the group expects non-OPEC supply growth to accelerate next year. … OPEC output surges …
This week started on a positive note with news that both the official and unofficial China manufacturing PMIs turned up in June. However, a bumper increase in US June non-farm payrolls on Friday weighed on commodities prices, as it raises the prospect of …
7th July 2017
Inventories of both crude and gasoline dropped sharply last week as demand picked up and imports fell back. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
6th July 2017
New supply prospects in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) could ease the current tightness in the cobalt market. Admittedly, the country’s mine practices are controversial and there is a risk that government intervention and geopolitical tensions …
Advancements in fuel efficiency, an increasing number of electric vehicles and the introduction of automated vehicles should mean that demand for oil in developed countries peaks over the next decade. However, fast growth in demand for travel in the …
Oil prices fell for most of last month as rising production in the US and in some OPEC countries weighed on investor sentiment. However, falling US stocks and a slight dip in the number of US drilling rigs for the first time this year boosted oil prices …
4th July 2017
The prices of most industrial metals rose last month, supported by some weakness in the US dollar and more encouraging data out of China. Although activity there slowed in the second quarter, there were at least signs of stabilisation in June. In …
A tentative revival in China’s economic activity late in the second quarter gave a renewed lift to the prices of the more industrial metals in June. However, it failed to translate into higher physical demand for gold. It was also not enough to support …
3rd July 2017
After diverging in May, the official and unofficial June manufacturing PMIs for China told a similar story of somewhat stronger activity in the final month of the quarter. However, the bigger picture is that growth is slowing, which we expect to continue …
South Africa’s controversial new mining charter will probably exacerbate the decline in the PGM sector. Higher costs, in tandem with lower foreign investment, could weigh on PGM production going forward. … How will South Africa’s mining charter affect PGM …
It has been a relatively quiet week although the prices of most commodities rose, supported by a further depreciation of the US dollar. The precious metals were the relative underperformers, perhaps concerned about the rises in US and European bond …
30th June 2017
US shale production growth is likely to slow sharply towards the end of the year as the recent low prices cap the number of drilling rigs. What’s more, fewer efficiency gains will start to weigh on output. … Will US shale continue to flood the oil …
29th June 2017
Another rise in net imports contributed to a slight increase in crude oil inventories last week. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks fell in spite of weak demand for petroleum products. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
28th June 2017
After a strong start to 2017, growth in China’s refinery output appears to be slowing. This corroborates broader activity and investment data, which have lost some momentum going into the second quarter. … China Industrial Metals Output Monitor …
Given Africa’s large size and geographic diversity, most of the world’s key agricultural commodities are produced somewhere on the continent. In this Commodities Watch, we first discuss the importance of Africa for global agricultural commodity markets, …
Volatility in commodity markets is likely to remain lower than average for the next year. The main exception could be the oil market where any change in tack by OPEC would cause sharp moves in prices. … Low volatility here to …
27th June 2017
The latest trade data show gold imports moved in opposing directions in the two largest consumers last month. The fall in China’s gold imports suggests weaker underlying demand, while India’s imports continued to surge ahead of the implementation of the …
26th June 2017
The price of copper has been trading in a fairly narrow range in the last few weeks, but is still significantly higher than at the start of 2016. In this Metals Watch, we discuss the main drivers of the price of copper, with a particular focus on the …
The price of Brent fell below $45 per barrel this week, reflecting investor concerns about oversupply. In contrast, the prices of most industrial metals rose, despite little in the way of positive news. It may be that the rally in Chinese equities boosted …
23rd June 2017
Fears about unrelenting growth in US oil production have pulled down oil prices again, despite stocks beginning to fall. However, faster demand growth combined with OPEC’s production cuts should be enough to give prices a temporary boost in the second …
22nd June 2017
Crude stocks fell again last week. However, production and net imports both rose. Meanwhile, higher demand prompted a fall in gasoline inventories. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
21st June 2017
