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Strong gasoline demand, for now US commercial crude stocks surged last week owing to a jump in net imports. Over the coming months, we expect a slowdown in the US economy to lead to further builds in inventories . The EIA’s weekly US Petroleum Report, …
30th October 2019
Recent construction delays to Nordstream 2 mean that the Russia-EU gas pipeline is likely to miss its scheduled completion date of December 2019. While we suspect that surging supplies of LNG from the US and Australia would limit any short-term price …
25th October 2019
This week has been relatively quiet in commodity markets, but there could be some bigger moves in prices in the next seven days given that the Fed meets on Thursday and a raft of economic data is scheduled for release. We think that the Fed will cut …
Output to pick up from here, but not by much Temporary shutdowns in China and Japan caused annual growth in global steel production growth to contract in September. We expect production to bounce back a little as these temporary factors fade, though …
Consumer demand to remain in the doldrums Gold imports by China and India fell once again in September. With the Chinese economy set to slow and Indian consumer preferences slowly drifting away from gold , Asian physical demand is likely to remain weak …
Surprise drawdown is cold comfort US crude stocks fell last week on the back of strong demand for both distillates and gasoline. But with stocks still comfortably above the five-year average, and the US economy set to slow further, this reading doesn’t …
23rd October 2019
Overview – Oil prices are likely to remain subdued in the near term as the global economy continues to slow and risk aversion prevails. And while natural gas and coal prices could rise in the coming months as part of the usual season upturn in demand, the …
Getting close to the trough Global aluminium output contracted again in September. But with a recovery in Chinese and Canadian production likely in the coming months, global aluminium supply may now be close to bottoming out . According to the …
21st October 2019
Despite the much-vaunted “mini-deal” on US-China trade, most industrial commodity prices fell this week . Uninspiring activity data across major commodity consumers, notably for the US and China, appear to have reignited fears over the health of demand. …
18th October 2019
Overview – While there appears to be little to lift spirits in the near term, we think the macro-economic backdrop for commodity markets will turn more positive during 2020. We expect global economic growth to pick up over the course of the year, which in …
Strong distillate demand is here to stay US crude stocks surged last week in part because of a decline in refinery throughput. We expect further builds in stocks over the next few months as the US economy slows, which will curb gasoline demand . The EIA’s …
17th October 2019
Subdued global economic activity will weigh on oil demand next year. That said, we expect GDP growth to gradually pick up over the course of the year, and new International Maritime Organization rules (IMO 2020) to boost crude demand from the shipping …
16th October 2019
Despite the latest “mini-deal”, we think it is only a matter of time before trade tensions between the US and China escalate again. Either way, we think that the recovery in global economic growth that we expect over the course of 2020 will be a far …
15th October 2019
China’s commodity imports held up rather better than imports of other goods in September. However, we think import volumes will tail off in the months ahead amid faltering economic activity . China’s imports and exports contracted last month. (See the …
14th October 2019
With little in the way of major economic data releases this week, most commodity prices rose on the back of news that the US and China may agree a “mini deal” as part of ongoing trade talks . This could reduce the immediate risk of a further rise in …
11th October 2019
While we broadly agree with the USDA’s latest corn supply forecasts, we are more positive about demand owing to recent changes to US ethanol policy. As a result, we expect corn prices to rise in the year ahead . The October World Agricultural Supply and …
On the whole, dwindling exchange stocks have had a muted impact on prices this year as global growth has slowed. But as inventories creep towards critical lows, this sets the scene for a sustained recovery in prices in 2020 if, as we expect, global growth …
Low production still not enough to lift prices OPEC’s September production data were distorted by the attacks on Saudi oil facilities, but overall output remained subdued. Deeper supply cuts are likely to be discussed at OPEC’s December meeting, but we …
10th October 2019
Crude stocks are on a rising trend US crude stocks rose again last week and we suspect that they will increase further owing to ongoing refinery maintenance and the prospect of lower product demand as the US economy slows . The EIA’s weekly US Petroleum …
9th October 2019
We expect that global oil supply will remain constrained in 2020. But we also forecast somewhat stronger growth in demand next year and a pick-up in risk appetite on the back of monetary easing. As a result, we are raising our forecast of the price of …
At first glance, weak global aluminium output so far this year can be chalked up to the slump in prices. However, lower Chinese production growth has more to do with government-led crackdowns on excess capacity which should continue even if, as we expect, …
Most industrial commodity prices fell this week as concerns about global economic growth intensified . A raft of weak economic data from the US and the euro-zone seems to suggest that the recent sluggishness in manufacturing may have now shifted into the …
4th October 2019
Strikes at South African mines would hit global supply of platinum and palladium hard But given stronger demand growth and lower stocks in the palladium market … … strikes would give much more of a boost to the price of palladium There is a significant …
After some fleeting optimism on the back of an apparent easing in US-China trade tensions in September, the recent run of weak US survey data saw demand concerns return to the fore. We think that global economic growth will slow further over the coming …
3rd October 2019
Overview – Energy prices diverged in September. There were strong gains in European gas and coal prices in part owing to strikes at France’s utilities at a time when seasonal demand is also picking up. Meanwhile, oil prices have been falling amid fears …
Crude stocks to continue rising as the US economy slows US crude stocks increased last week as inputs to refineries fell. We expect crude stocks to continue to rise in the coming months as a weaker US economy leads to softer growth in gasoline demand . …
2nd October 2019
With question marks hanging over the outlook for global economic growth, it has become increasingly difficult to get a handle on the true state of physical copper demand. Therefore, we have turned to the Capital Economics Copper Demand Proxy for answers. …
Overview – Oil prices dipped in September despite the attacks on Saudi Aramco. In contrast, the prices of most other commodities increased owing to a rise in investor risk appetite. However, we expect US equities to fall in the coming months, which should …
1st October 2019
China’s official and unofficial PMIs rose in September, but we think this is unlikely to mark an economic turnaround not least because global demand looks set to weaken further. What’s more, signs of slower construction activity have particularly negative …
30th September 2019
As the fall-out from the attacks on Aramco began to fade, the spotlight swung firmly back to concerns about global economic activity this week with falls in the prices of most industrial commodities . What’s more, our forecast that economic indicators …
27th September 2019
August uptick to prove a flash in the pan An upturn in Chinese output lifted global steel production growth out of the doldrums in August. But with environmental cuts being stepped up, and construction activity set to falter, we doubt this will last. As …
26th September 2019
Fall in US crude exports may prove temporary US crude stocks rose on the back of higher US production and a fall in crude inputs to refineries. Stocks could ease back again in the month ahead if the loss of Saudi oil lifts demand for US crude exports . …
25th September 2019
Physical demand unlikely to recover this year Gold imports in China and India remained extremely weak in August. With local currency prices likely to stay elevated, and growth in China set to slow, a turnaround in demand is unlikely anytime soon . Data …
Demand should start to recover next year With subdued growth in supply, the market is likely to move into deficit But stocks are high, which will act as a lid on prices In this Commodities Watch , we are initiating coverage of natural rubber . As it …
Lower production in Saudi Arabia and the lower-than-expected US output growth have led us to revise down our global oil supply growth estimates. We now expect the market surplus to be smaller than we had previously expected in 2020, which will support …
23rd September 2019
There was a rude awakening for the oil market last weekend as a missile and drone attack on Saudi oil facilities, allegedly backed by Iran, removed around 50% of Saudi capacity . As the dust settled, oil prices ended the week about $5 or 7% higher. We …
20th September 2019
Supply continues to stutter, but not by enough to boost prices Global aluminium production fell again in August, and we think this contraction could deepen in the months ahead. Despite this, we forecast that the price of aluminium will fall a little …
War with the US would cause a collapse in Iran’s economy that would directly knock around 0.3%-pts off global GDP – equal to the damage from the US-China trade war so far. More important to the rest of the world, though, would be the resulting surge in …
We estimate that 190,000 tonnes of refined nickel have flowed into unreported stocks since 2017. In other words, nickel stocks are much higher than official numbers indicate. This supports our view that nickel prices will decline next year even if …
US production of light crude oil will continue to grow in the coming years, and we expect that this will lead to the US becoming a net exporter of crude oil by 2021 . US oil production has grown sharply from 5.5m bpd in 2010 to 12.4m bpd currently, owing …
19th September 2019
Weaker refinery activity to boost stocks US crude stocks rose last week largely owing to a decline in refinery inputs. Relatively high stocks will continue to reassure the market that there are ample supplies to cover outages in Saudi Arabia . The EIA’s …
18th September 2019
Smelter outages in China have led to a surge in the ShFE price of aluminium, and there is mounting speculation that the LME price will soon follow suit. We disagree. In contrast, our in-house model suggests that aluminium prices will fall in the coming …
Given the uncertainty about the impact on supply of this weekend’s attack on Saudi Aramco, we are not changing our oil price forecasts yet. However, in this Update , we outline three possible scenarios that could develop and what they would mean for …
16th September 2019
The apparent thaw in US-China trade relations gave most industrial commodity prices a lift, but we have seen these sort of ‘goodwill’ gestures before and doubt that the two sides are any closer to resolving their underlying differences . One commodity …
13th September 2019
Surging Chinese smelter output and faltering demand mean we think that zinc prices are set to drop by more than 15% by the end of this year and are unlikely to start recovering until the second half of 2020 . Our long-held bearishness on zinc prices has …
12th September 2019
US product demand appears to be losing steam Another sharp fall in US stocks suggests crude demand is holding up well, despite some signs of deterioration in economic activity data. However, we suspect that crude stocks will soon start to build as …
11th September 2019
While we are revising up our once-bullish end-2019 forecasts for the prices of gold and silver, we think that the price rally this year has now run its course. Next year, we expect a recovery in bond yields and a rise in investor risk appetite to push …
Saudi Arabia likely to keep oil output low OPEC kept output below quota in August. We think that it will continue to under-produce in 2020, particularly as the Saudi Aramco IPO nears, and that this will be one factor supporting prices . The OPEC Monthly …
The usual seasonal uplift in demand should support the price of Pacific coal until end-2019. However, we expect average prices to fall in the years ahead owing in large part to weaker demand prospects . The price of Pacific coal has tumbled over the past …
10th September 2019
