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Upward revisions to our global economic forecasts and an improvement in the economic data at home have led us to revise our forecasts for UK GDP growth higher. But the outlook remains weak and extremely uncertain, while the large amount of spare capacity …
8th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC’s bond yield conundrum …
7th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (May) …
5th June 2009
The MPC’s decision to pause today was no surprise in the light of the announcement only last month to extend quantitative easing and recent signs of improvement in the economic data. But we still suspect that further policy support will be required to …
4th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (May) …
3rd June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Lending Figures (Apr.) …
2nd June 2009
The forward-looking economic indicators have continued to improve over the past month and are still pointing to a much smaller contraction in GDP in Q2 than in Q1. But we have yet to see anything that points to actual growth in the economy. Nonetheless, …
1st June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rising pound not a problem yet …
31st May 2009
There is little reason for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to alter the current course of asset purchases under its quantitative easing (QE) programme. After all, it was only last month that it extended the programme by £50bn to a total of £125bn. But …
28th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May) …
The falling level of interbank lending rates has been an encouraging aspect of the recent improvement in conditions in both financial markets and the wider economy. Unfortunately, there is limited evidence that lenders are passing on this drop in their …
26th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why is UK inflation lagging behind? …
24th May 2009
The chances that a country like the UK or even the US might lose its AAA rating in the coming years are rather greater than generally assumed. However, the consequences for the financial markets may not be quite as serious. … How serious is the threat to …
22nd May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q1) …
The likely sharp fall in overall consumer spending in Q1 probably marks the low-point during this downturn. After all, the consumer sector has shared in the tentative signs of improvement, or at least stabilisation, seen in the economy as a whole …
21st May 2009
The latest monetary indicators show that the boost to the monetary base from the Bank of England’s asset purchases is not yet feeding through into a ignificant pick-up in lending to the wider economy. … Monetary Indicators Monitor …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Retail Sales & Public Finances (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes & CBI Monthly Trends (May) …
20th May 2009
The recent pick-up in corporate bond issuance suggests that, even though banks remain reluctant to lend, companies are managing to access funds from elsewhere. However, it looks unlikely that higher bond issuance will be able to compensate fully for …
19th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spare capacity leaves the MPC in no hurry …
18th May 2009
According to the Investment Management Association, the credit crunch has resulted in the sterling corporate bond market becoming characterised by wide spreads, a lack – or even absence of – market-making, and significant price uncertainty. Despite these …
15th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Inflation Report (May) …
13th May 2009
Recent speculation over the likely shape of the recovery apparently underway in the UK and global economies has read like a tin of alphabet spaghetti – will it be U, V, or W-shaped? A look back at previous recessions does not provide a comprehensive …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Data (Mar./Apr.) …
12th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Ind. Prod., Trade & BRC Retail Sales (Mar./Apr.) …
The latest results from the major UK banks, showing sharp rises in customer loan defaults, underline our view that any recovery in bank lending will be extremely gradual. … Rising bad debts to constrain bank …
11th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rising bad debts to constrain bank lending …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Extra QE may not be enough …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Apr.) …
8th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC steps up QE, but effects still highly uncertain …
7th May 2009
While the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision today to step up its programme of quantitative easing (QE) came a month earlier than we anticipated, there are still considerable uncertainties over the likely impact of the asset purchases on both activity …
Activity in the labour market appears to have shared somewhat in the improvement seen in the wider economy over the past month or two. However, the lagging nature of unemployment means that it is far too early to be looking for a sustained labour market …
6th May 2009
The past month has brought further signs of improvement in most of the forward-looking economic indicators. It therefore seems increasingly likely that the worst of the recession was seen in Q1. For now, though, the indicators are simply consistent with a …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Don't bank on a consumer recovery …
4th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mortgage lending (March) …
1st May 2009
