Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Household Borrowing (Jun.) & CBI Distr. Trades (Jul.) …
29th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fall in oil brings light at the end of the inflation tunnel …
28th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Provisional GDP (Q2) …
25th July 2008
Abstracting from the extreme volatility of the monthly data, the official retail sales figures appear to have been on a downward trend over the past few months. And there have been more concrete signs over the past month of slower non-retail spending too, …
24th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (June) …
23rd July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Jul.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey (Jul.) …
22nd July 2008
It might only be a few months before the MPC can conclude that the twin threats of rising wages growth and rising core inflation are not going to materialise. We still think there is a decent chance that the MPC will be able to support the faltering …
The credit squeeze, the prospect of further house price falls and the deteriorating inflation outlook mean that we expect real consumer spending next year to stagnate at best. … Consumer sector heads for recession (Q3 …
21st July 2008
UK banks are unlikely to raise enough capital to maintain their recent rates of lending. So even if they overcome their immediate liquidity problems, the credit crunch is unlikely to ease soon. … Dent to bank capital to restrict lending …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tide turning back towards lower rates …
The Government’s decision to “reform” its fiscal rules will help it to avoid deepening the economic downturn by raising taxes over the next year or two. But it does not alter the fact that a major fiscal consolidation will eventually be required in order …
18th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances & M4 Money Supply (Jun.) …
17th July 2008
Although unemployment is now rising, there is perhaps some comfort in the fact that the sharp rise in unemployment in the early 1990s had a fairly limited impact on real household income growth. However, household incomes are unlikely to get off so …
The markets have once again started to anticipate cuts in UK interest rates. But if our expectations of the severity of the downturn in the economy prove even half right, rate expectations have a lot further to fall. … Interest rate expectations have much …
16th July 2008
The fall in employment that we expect over the next couple of years is only a fraction of the drop seen in the early 1990s. But with the workforce unlikely to contract as it did back then, the rises in unemployment now and in the early 1990s could be …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data (May/Jun.) …
15th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Housing Market Survey (June) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Jun.) …
14th July 2008
The ONS measure of core CPI inflation does not exclude all elements of food and energy prices in th CPI and is therefore likely to rise alongside energy and food prices. There is a danger, then, that the MPC is misled by any rise in “core” inflation and …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Housing adjustment gathering speed …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Jun.) …
13th July 2008
Industrial action by the likes of Shell and local government workers has fuelled fears of a return to the mass strikes and soaring pay of the 1970s. However, the labour market looks fundamentally different now, with trade union membership now only …
10th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (June) …
The MPC’s inaction today in the face of a torrent of dreadful news on the economy underlines the extent to which its hands are tied by the current strength of inflation pressures. There is little it can do to prevent the economy from sliding towards …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade & BoE Quoted Interest Rates (May/Jun.) …
8th July 2008
Retailers face a double-squeeze on revenues over the next few years. Overall consumer spending growth is clearly set to slow sharply. But in addition, the retail sector is set to continue to take a decreasing share of the total amount of cash consumers …
The steep falls in equity prices seen over recent weeks have brought the UK stockmarket back into line with consensus expectations for the economy. But with those expectations very likely to weaken further over the coming months, equities’ adjustment may …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BCC Economic Survey (Q2) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recession moves closer …
7th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Industrial Production (May) …
6th July 2008
An interest rate cut is desperately needed to support the rapidly deteriorating economy. But inflationary pressures continue to tie the Monetary Policy Committee’s hands. The chances of an interest rate rise have receded significantly. But with a rate cut …
3rd July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Services (Jun.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) …
The fall in the UK exchange rate over the last six months has been broadly similar in scale to that seen after the pound fell out of the ERM in 1992. But while this should eventually lead to a period of better-balanced growth like that in the mid-1990s, …
2nd July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Housing Equity Withdrawal (Q1) …
We have been more concerned than most forecasters about the outlook for the UK economy and, in particular, the prospect of an abrupt unwinding of the various imbalances that have built up over the last decade or so. But recent news has suggested that …
The news on the housing market over the last month has simply been dire. The Nationwide recorded its eighth consecutive fall in house prices in June, leaving prices some 8% below their autumn peak. And the collapse in the number of mortgage approvals to …
1st July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (June) …
