Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q4) …
25th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb.) …
24th February 2009
The strength of high street spending over the past month or two begs the question of whether we have underestimated the resilience of UK consumers. However, we continue to think that the consumer downturn has only just begun. … Consumer spending rebound …
23rd February 2009
Although welcome, the resumption of lending by Northern Rock will not transform the mortgage market outlook overnight. However, it is also a sign that the Government is increasingly willing to intervene directly in the lending markets. At the very least, …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fiscal boost prospects fading …
The resilience of consumers never ceases to surprise, with the strong spending seen at the end of December continuing into the start of January. This might suggest that consumers feel confident enough to spend the extra money that will be freed up by …
20th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Jan.) …
Overseas lenders are reducing their lending to UK firms. Meanwhile, the nationalisation of Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley means that the supply of credit in the mortgage market has also been reduced. UK banks need to lend more just to fill the …
19th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances (Jan.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes & CBI Monthly Trends (Feb.) …
18th February 2009
The young have been disproportionately affected by the recent rise in unemployment. Whilst this may dampen the link between unemployment and debt defaults, it is likely to make the consumer spending and housing market slowdowns more acute than in previous …
17th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Jan.) …
Speculation is growing that the Government will soon take a majority stake in Lloyds, representing another step towards full nationalisation of large parts of the banking system. Full nationalisation would significantly boost the Government’s exposure to …
16th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Deflation risks not fully appreciated …
The uncertainties over the likely effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy measures and the potentially negative effect on inflation expectations suggest that the imminent adoption of quantitative easing (QE) will not eradicate the threat of …
12th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) …
11th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Labour Data …
A number of companies have announced pay freezes in the past week or two. However, even if a significant proportion of the workforce foregoes a pay rise this year, we doubt that further sharp rises in unemployment can be avoided. We still expect …
Recent suggestions that a recovery in real income growth as inflation drops will prevent a major downturn in household spending would seem to overlook the damaging impact of the recent sharp falls in household wealth. We still expect spending to contract …
10th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trade & BRC Retail Sales (Dec./Jan.) …
It has been suggested that UK banks can deleverage by scaling back their lending to financial institutions, leaving lending to UK households and firms largely unaffected. However, that does not mean that the real economy will emerge unscathed. … Real …
9th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC heading into the unknown …
The Nationwide and Halifax indices show that house prices are now almost 20% below their peak, meaning that there is still some way to go before our forecast of a 35% peak-to-trough fall is delivered. Yet, the chances that prices ultimately fall by more …
6th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Ind. Production & Producer Prices (Dec/Jan) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (January) …
5th February 2009
Today’s cut in interest rates to just 1% confirmed that, for now at least, the Monetary Policy Committee remains focused on getting the cost of money as low as possible. We still expect rates to drop to zero, or very close, before the emphasis switches to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jan.) …
4th February 2009
The recession has gathered pace rapidly and we now expect consumer spending to drop by about 3.5% in real terms this year. Meanwhile, sterling’s sharp depreciation is an additional headache for retailers. … Passing on higher import costs may prove …
Chancellor Alistair Darling told the Treasury Select Committee yesterday that he is keeping open the option of creating a so-called “bad bank”, through which the Government would buy toxic assets from UK banks. However, we are unconvinced that this would …
The preliminary estimate of GDP in the final quarter of last year confirmed that the economy has plunged into recession. The 1.5% quarterly drop in output in Q4 means that the economy contracted by over 2% in the second half of 2008. There are signs of a …
2nd February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bottom of the pile …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Household Borrowing (Dec.) & Consumer Conf. (Jan.) …
30th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Household Borrowing (Dec.) & Consumer Confidence (Jan.) …
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has slowed the pace of monetary loosening and stressed that a large policy stimulus is in train. But the economic outlook has deteriorated further. And the MPC may just have been waiting for the analysis in February’s …
29th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan.) …
27th January 2009
