Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
The latest results from the major UK banks, showing sharp rises in customer loan defaults, underline our view that any recovery in bank lending will be extremely gradual. … Rising bad debts to constrain bank …
11th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rising bad debts to constrain bank lending …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Extra QE may not be enough …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Apr.) …
8th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC steps up QE, but effects still highly uncertain …
7th May 2009
While the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision today to step up its programme of quantitative easing (QE) came a month earlier than we anticipated, there are still considerable uncertainties over the likely impact of the asset purchases on both activity …
Activity in the labour market appears to have shared somewhat in the improvement seen in the wider economy over the past month or two. However, the lagging nature of unemployment means that it is far too early to be looking for a sustained labour market …
6th May 2009
The past month has brought further signs of improvement in most of the forward-looking economic indicators. It therefore seems increasingly likely that the worst of the recession was seen in Q1. For now, though, the indicators are simply consistent with a …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Don't bank on a consumer recovery …
4th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mortgage lending (March) …
1st May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS Report on Manufacturing/Cons. Credit …
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to maintain its current course at its May policy meeting, leaving interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and voting to complete the £75bn programme of asset purchases it began back in March. “Taylor Rule” style …
30th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (April) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.) …
28th April 2009
The outbreak of swine flu in Mexico and its spread to other countries has inevitably raised questions about the broader economic and market implications. While not wanting to downplay the social costs or uncertainty about how the disease might evolve, an …
27th April 2009
We continue to expect real consumer spending to fall by about 3.5% this year and still doubt that it will rise again until 2012 at the earliest. … Labour market to restrain recovery in real household income (Q2 …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Budget confirms painful consolidation ahead …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Preliminary GDP (Q1) …
25th April 2009
Retail sales have lost some of their shine, but are still performing rather better than might be expected given the economic backdrop. However, spending off the high street is certainly still suffering. And we continue to think that the high street faces …
24th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Prov. GDP (Q1) & Retail Sales (Mar.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Monthly Ind. Trends Survey (Apr. and Q2) …
23rd April 2009
This Budget was a holding operation which left the really tough decisions required to sort out the public finances to be taken by whoever is Chancellor after the next election. The tax increases and spending cuts announced today are just the tip of the …
22nd April 2009
Now that the Monetary Policy Committee has entered the uncharted waters of quantitative easing, the monetary indicators have moved to the top of the watchlist. In this UK Economics Update, which we aim to return to each month, we will monitor the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes/Labour Data/Public Finances …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumer Prices (Mar.) …
21st April 2009
20th April 2009
Barely a day goes by at the moment without another newspaper story on the “green shoots” of recovery or a new forecast predicting a significant improvement in the health of the UK economy. But it is important to keep things in perspective. … Treat green …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Budget hit to bond markets should be temporary …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.) …
16th April 2009
While some of sterling’s recent strengthening may reflect short-term factors which could be quickly reversed, there are more fundamental reasons to expect the pound to rise, at least against the euro. … More upside for the pound, at least against the …
Past experience suggests that durable consumer goods (such as household appliances) will be the first area of consumer spending to turn the corner in this recession, while spending on consumer services (such as going to the theatre or eating out) will be …
15th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC misses an opportunity …
13th April 2009
With Mervyn King signalling already that interest rates were unlikely to fall again, this MPC meeting was all about the unconventional policy measures - so-called “quantitative easing” or QE - undertaken by the Committee over the last month. But the …
9th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Mar.)/Trade (Feb.) …
Chancellor Alistair Darling faces the unenviable task in his second Budget of trying to offer the economy some much-needed support, whilst at the same time reassuring the markets that the public finances will eventually return to health. He is unlikely to …
8th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Ind. Prod. & BCC Economic Survey (Feb./Q1) …
7th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too early to talk about a recovery …
6th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Mar.) …
3rd April 2009
The programme of quantitative easing (QE) has certainly got off to a positive start, as evidenced by the sharp drop in bond yields. However, its wider impact on bank lending, economic activity and inflation remains highly uncertain. At this early stage, …
2nd April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) …
The initial impact of the Monetary Policy Committee’s first foray into quantitative easing has been fairly positive, with bond yields falling sharply. (See Chart.) But it is too early to tell whether this programme of asset purchases is having a wider …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (March) …
