Filtered by Subscriptions: Nordic & Swiss Economics Use setting Nordic & Swiss Economics
The Danish economy grew at a decent clip in Q2 on the back of strong exportg rowth, but household deleveraging means that growth over the coming year will fall short of consensus forecasts. … Danish GDP (Q2 …
30th August 2013
Iceland is well on the way to recovery. But legacy problems from its 2008 crisis will hang over the economy for some time yet, preventing GDP from regaining its pre-crisis high until 2015. … Iceland on long and winding road to …
22nd August 2013
The mainland Norwegian economy slowed quite sharply in Q2 as a result of faltering household spending, supporting our long-held view that the economy will slow over the coming year. … Norwegian GDP (Q2 …
20th August 2013
The Danish property market, at the heart of the country’s long slump, is on the mend. This suggests that the economy is finally turning a corner, but the recovery in both house prices and the wider economy is likely to be fairly anaemic in the next few …
5th August 2013
The fall in Swedish GDP in Q2, which mainly reflected a sharp slowdown in household spending, supports our long-held view that the consensus expectation for a steady acceleration in economic growth over the next year or so is too optimistic. … Swedish GDP …
30th July 2013
Some central banks are beginning to make greater use of “forward guidance” to signal that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The evidence from Sweden, where the Riksbank has been publishing forecasts for the main policy interest …
18th July 2013
We have long argued that the strength of the Norwegian krone would push the Norges Bank into further monetary easing. While the currency’s recent sell-off might ease pressure on the Bank somewhat, we still expect another rate cut by the end of the year. … …
10th July 2013
The Swedish Riksbank left interest rates unchanged at 1.0% today and signalled that it still expects to begin raising rates in late 2014. However, we still think that the Bank’s economic forecasts are too optimistic and that the next interest rate move …
3rd July 2013
The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about financial stability once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But the Bank once again pushed back its hiking cycle, reinforcing our belief that a rate …
20th June 2013
The Danish economy rebounded in Q1 after its very weak finish to last year, but we doubt that the recovery will last long. … Danish GDP (Q1 …
31st May 2013
Swiss GDP data for Q1 confirmed that the economy continued to perform well. But the still high level of the franc does appear to be damaging exports and we suspect that growth will slow significantly in the coming quarters. … Swiss GDP (Q1 …
30th May 2013
We think that Q1’s healthy rise in Swedish GDP is not quite as encouraging as it initially seems. But while we expect GDP growth to slow over the remainder of 2013, Sweden will continue to perform better than most of its neighbours. … Swedish GDP (Q1 …
29th May 2013
Over the past five years, Sweden and Norway have performed remarkably well by the standards of the developed world, but their recoveries may be starting to run out of steam. Nonetheless, both economies should outperform most of their peers and maintain …
Five years since they were implemented, Iceland still relies on ‘temporary’ capital controls to support its currency. And they are likely to remain in place for some time yet despite the new Government’s calls for them to be abolished quickly. That said, …
28th May 2013
The mainland Norwegian economy picked-up strongly in Q1, suggesting that Q4’s slowdown was an outlier. But we still expect the economy to slow later in the year as the euro-zone crisis intensifies and households reduce their borrowing. … Norwegian GDP …
16th May 2013
The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about rising household debt once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But our expectation for the euro-zone crisis to intensify, combined with the Bank’s …
8th May 2013
Due to Norway’s much-lauded fiscal rules, the recent fall in oil prices will have little impact on the economy’s bright near-term outlook. Nonetheless, Norway’s growing dependence on hydrocarbons highlights an increasingly unsustainable long-term growth …
2nd May 2013
Household spending in Denmark has barely recovered since its housing bubble burst in 2007 and there appears little respite ahead for households. With rising debt now fuelling housing booms in Sweden and Norway, Denmark offers a sobering insight into what …
25th April 2013
Swiss GDP data for Q4 confirmed that, while growth is clearly slowing, the economy has continued to outperform most others in Europe. But we expect the economy to stagnate this year as problems in the euro-zone cause exports to fall. … Swiss GDP (Q4 …
28th March 2013
The Swiss National Bank pledged to maintain its extremely supportive policy stance today, keeping interest rates as close to zero as possible and defending its exchange rate ceiling. But even at the current level, the franc is much too high for exporters’ …
14th March 2013
The Norges Bank’s decision to leave the policy rate unchanged reflects the dilemma facing the Bank as a strong currency prevents it from hiking rates to stem a housing boom. These countervailing pressures are likely to keep policy on hold until late-2014 …
Denmark is finally dragging itself out of its long slump. Households have started to deleverage, exporters have become more competitive and banks are now stronger. But given that these adjustments have further to run, the Danish economy will still lag its …
12th March 2013
Q4’s Icelandic GDP data confirmed that the economy is slowly recovering from its financial crisis. But while Iceland looks set to continue to outperform the peripheral euro-zone economies this year, growth will be pretty sluggish. … Iceland GDP (Q4 …
8th March 2013
Q4’s Swedish GDP numbers confirmed that the robust recovery has fizzled out. But Sweden should still perform far better than the euro-zone and most of its neighbours in 2013. … Swedish GDP (Q4 …
1st March 2013
The Danish economy contracted sharply at the end of 2012 as both weak domestic demand and the euro-zone crisis weighed heavily on economic activity. … Danish GDP (Q4 …
28th February 2013
Norway is in the midst of a long housing boom, but prices are not as over-valued as some valuation measures suggest. Given other downward risks to the economic outlook, we think that interest rates could remain lower than market and central bank forecasts …
26th February 2013
The Danish central bank’s use of negative interest rates provides an insight into one of the few untried tools still available to major central banks. Denmark’s experience suggests that negative rates offer little support for a weak real economy, while …
19th February 2013
The Norwegian economy rebounded in Q4 after contracting the previous quarter on account of the energy sector, but mainland growth slowed significantly. … Norwegian GDP (Q4 …
13th February 2013
The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold reflects concerns that further rate cuts may prompt household debt to rise further with potentially damaging longer-term consequences. But we still expect the Bank to cut rates again later …
We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Swedish Riksbank will be the last in the current cycle. While the Bank has concerns about the longer-term effects of a prolonged period of low interest rates, renewed problems in the euro-zone may …
18th December 2012
Credit Suisse’s announcement that it will charge other banks for holding large Swiss franc deposits with it has helped to ease the pressure on the currency for now. But while we have revised down our near term forecast for the franc, we still see it …
4th December 2012
Swiss and Swedish GDP figures for Q3 showed that the two economies remained resilient despite the euro-zone’s troubles. But while both may avoid deep recessions next year, we expect growth to be much weaker than the consensus forecasts. … Swiss & Swedish …
29th November 2012
Despite the fall in overall GDP in Q3, Norway is still weathering the euro-zone debt crisis rather well. … Norwegian GDP (Q3 12) …
20th November 2012
We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Riksbank will be the last in the cycle. If the euro-zone debt crisis intensifies as we expect, interest rates may eventually fall well below 1%. … Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the …
6th September 2012
Q2’s fall in Swiss GDP could mark the start of a new recession. While Switzerland’s domestic outlook is far better than that of the euro-zone, the open economy will suffer from a strong currency and weakening global demand. … Swiss GDP (Q2 …
4th September 2012
Q2’s Norwegian GDP data provided further signs that the economy is shrugging off the euro-zone debt crisis. But although Norway is likely to remain one of Europe’s best performers over the coming quarters, growth looks set to slow. … Norwegian GDP (Q2 …
23rd August 2012
The Swedish GDP figures for Q2 confirmed that the economy is continuing to weather the storm from the euro-zone far better than most of its neighbours. … Swedish GDP (Q2 …
30th July 2012
Finland’s continued hardline stance on the provision of support to the peripheral economies increases the risk that the euro-zone will not implement the measures needed to maintain the existing membership of the single currency. … Could Finland be the …
19th July 2012
The Swedish GDP figures for Q1 suggest that the economy is withstanding the eurozone fiscal crisis pretty well. But we still think that Sweden is set for a bumpy ride andthat the Riksbank will reduce interest rates further. … Swedish GDP (Q1 …
30th May 2012
GDP data for Q1 this year showed Norway’s economy expanding at a very healthy pace. But on balance, we think the adverse effects of the euro-zone debt crisis will prompt Norges Bank to cut its key policy rate further this year. … Norwegian GDP (Q1 …
22nd May 2012
The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.0% was no surprise given the recent run of encouraging economic data. But while the chances of an imminent cut have perhaps receded, we still think that the Riksbank will probably …
17th April 2012
Three years after entering a depression, Iceland has staged an impressive turnaround, which, on the face of it, bodes well for the peripheral euro-zone economies that have suffered from similar problems. But a key factor behind the revival has been the …
27th March 2012
The Swiss National Bank pledged to maintain its extremely supportive policy stance today, keeping interest rates as close to zero as possible and defending a minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro. But even at this level, the franc is much too high …
15th March 2012
Q4’s Swedish GDP figures brought the strongest evidence yet that the problems in the euro-zone are taking their toll on Europe’s healthiest economies. We continue to think that the Riksbank will lower interest rates by more than its existing forecasts …
29th February 2012
The Swedish Riksbank indicated that it expects its latest 25 basis point interest rate cut to be the last in the cycle. But we expect the adverse knock-on effects from an intensification of the euro-zone debt crisis to prompt the Bank to reduce interest …
16th February 2012
The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is a timely reminder that even the strongest performing European economies are not immune from the effects of the euro-zone debt crisis. We expect further rate cuts next year as the euro-zone’s woes …
20th December 2011
Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirmed that the economy is finally beginning to suffer from the franc’s strength. With the currency remaining strong and demand from the eurozone set to slump, the economy will struggle to expand at all next year. … Swiss GDP (Q3 …
1st December 2011
Q3’s GDP figures revealed that, for now at least, the Swedish economy continues to expand rapidly. Nonetheless, we expect the deepening euro-zone debt crisis to hit Sweden before too long, prompting growth to slow sharply next year. … Swedish GDP (Q3 …
29th November 2011
Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to apply a limit of 1.20 per euro to the franc is a bold move which it has pledged to defend at all costs. But in the end, there may be limits to how many francs the Bank is prepared to “print”, implying that …
6th September 2011
Swiss GDP data show that the economy held up relatively well in Q2, but exports have already begun to fall. As the Swiss National Bank struggles to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc, the downturn in exports looks set to intensify dramatically, …
1st September 2011
