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Finland’s close economic ties with neighbouring Russia mean that the EU’s stiffer sanctions on Russia announced yesterday are likely to deal another blow to the Finnish economy. Even if the direct impact is set to be small, a weaker Russian economy bodes …
30th July 2014
The Swedish Riksbank’s interest rate cut last week will put pressure on the Norges Bank to follow suit. We expect the Bank to cut its policy rate by the end of the year. And as spending in the energy and household sectors struggles to pick up, the Bank …
8th July 2014
Sweden’s central bank today cut its main policy rate by a bigger-than-expected 50bp to 0.25% and pushed back the date at which it first expects to raise rates until the end of 2015 in order to fight off the growing threat of deflation. … Swedish Riksbank …
3rd July 2014
Fears that Sweden might be about to enter a Japanese-style “lost decade” of deflation and stagnation are not entirely without foundation. But we think that Sweden should be able to avoid such an outcome, even though growth is likely to be slower than …
2nd July 2014
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) today maintained its strongly supportive policy stance, pledging to enforce the ceiling on the Swiss franc with “the utmost determination”. We think that the SNB will beforced to renew its currency interventions before long. …
19th June 2014
As we expected given signs of a slowdown in the energy sector, the Norges Bank pushed back its first projected rate hike until 2016. Although the krone weakened on the news, the economic slowdown may generate more downward pressure on the currency. … …
Finland has gone from being one of the euro-zone’s strongest performers pre-crisis to one of the worst, following the demise of its key industries. Reforms to boost growth will take time and effort, suggesting the period of very low or negative growth …
12th June 2014
The small fall in Icelandic GDP in the first quarter of 2014 was somewhat disappointing but we do not think that this marks the start of a renewed deterioration in the economy. … Iceland GDP (Q1 …
6th June 2014
Q1 GDP data confirmed that Finland’s economy is still struggling to exit its recession. Indeed, it now seems that 2014 will mark the third straight year of economic contraction for the northernmost euro-zone member, confirming that the region’s problems …
5th June 2014
Q1’s small fall in Swedish GDP was little surprise after its sharp rise in Q4. But while the economy’s underlying growth is decent, the Riksbank might yet ease policy again in order to ward of deflationary pressures. … Swedish GDP (Q1 …
30th May 2014
Q1’s pick-up in Swiss GDP growth is a relief after a weak Q4 and suggests that the economy is still coping with the strong franc. But the threat of prolonged deflation will keep the central bank in strongly accommodative mode for a long time yet. … Swiss …
28th May 2014
The Danish economy started 2014 strongly. But continued household deleveraging means that growth this year is likely to be more sluggish than the consensus expects. … Danish GDP (Q1 …
Iceland’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 6% at its meeting today, despite raising its medium-term forecasts for GDP growth. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will have to raise the policy rate later this year as the slack in the …
21st May 2014
Norway’s mainland economy continued to hum along at a decent pace in Q1, but the underlying drivers of growth are weakening. … Norwegian GDP (Q1 …
20th May 2014
The 0.4% fall in Finland’s trend output indicator over Q1 is a clear indication that the country is struggling to exit recession. We expect the Finnish economy to stagnate this year, undermining government efforts to put public debt on a downward …
19th May 2014
The Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today and we continue to think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking until 2016. … Growth slowdown to delay rate hikes in Norway until …
8th May 2014
The Riksbank’s report on household indebtedness underscores the magnitude of the problem and the need for it to be addressed. But we continue to think that the Bank will cut interest rates as deflationary fears prove to be more critical. … Deflation to …
7th May 2014
The prolonged deterioration in Finland’s labour market may finally be coming to an end, according to data published earlier this week. But we suspect that employment will pick up very slowly at best. … Labour market still a constraint on Finland’s …
25th April 2014
The Swedish Riksbank pushed back the date at which it expects to start raising interest rates and signalled that the probability of a rate cut in the near term has grown. We continue to think that low inflation will force the Bank to cut its policy rate …
9th April 2014
Although the Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today, the Bank may yet need to push back its first projected interest rate hike from mid-2015 to 2016. … Norwegian interest rates may be on hold until …
27th March 2014
The fall in the Danish krone to its weakest level against the euro since early 2006 has increased speculation that Denmark’s central bank will have to respond to maintain the krone’s peg. We agree that action is necessary but suspect that the Nationalbank …
24th March 2014
The combination of a sluggish economic recovery, very low inflation and a still strong currency will keep the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in very accommodative mode for the foreseeable future. … SNB’s battle with deflation goes …
20th March 2014
In light of the recent drop in inflation, Iceland’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged today and suggested that rate hikes were less probable than they had been in February. However, with inflation set to pick up again, we still think the …
19th March 2014
February’s consumer prices figures for the Nordic countries revealed a continued disparity between subdued inflation rates in Sweden and Denmark on the one hand and much stronger price pressures in Norway. We expect that disparity to persist over the …
11th March 2014
The continued growth of Iceland’s economy in Q4 suggests that the country is on the road to recovery. … Iceland GDP (Q4 13) …
7th March 2014
The surge in Swedish GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy remains one of the region’s strongest performers. But while it has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecast we still think that growth will be weaker than the consensus view this year. … Swedish & …
28th February 2014
While Q4’s Swiss GDP figures were a bit disappointing, they do not suggest that the economy is succumbing to the strength of the exchange rate. … Swiss GDP (Q4 …
27th February 2014
Denmark’s mortgage-bond market, the third largest covered bond market in the world, looks set to avoid a painful regulatory overhaul that might have weighed on the country’s recovery. … Danish mortgage market set to weather regulatory …
26th February 2014
The Swedish Riksbank reiterated at its meeting today that it does not expect to raise interest rates until early next year. But we think that the expected start date of its tightening cycle will eventually be pushed back. … Rates hikes in Sweden remain a …
13th February 2014
Although the Icelandic central bank left its policy rate unchanged today, the Sedlabanki gave a strong indication that it is likely to tighten policy later this year. … Sedlabanki holds, but will hike later this …
12th February 2014
Although the Norwegian krone will fare better in 2014 than it did last year, the currency may well depreciate a little further. … Slide in Norwegian krone may not be over …
10th February 2014
Sweden is less at risk from a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation than the euro-zone, despite the fact that CPI inflation is currently lower in the former. … Should Sweden be worried about …
5th February 2014
The Norwegian economy will slow more than the consensus expects over the coming years as its two major tailwinds in recent years – booms in the housing and energy sectors – fade out. … Norway set for several years of below-trend …
13th January 2014
The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is unlikely to have a major positive impact on the economy. We expect GDP to continue to grow at a lacklustre pace, suggesting that the Riksbank may push back the expected start date of its …
17th December 2013
Iceland’s controversial plan for more debt relief for indebted households is, despite some risks, a positive for the economy. But the scope for similar measures in the euro-zone’s periphery is limited. … Iceland’s debt write-down plan will support the …
The latest economic data show that Finland’s economy is struggling to recover from the recent yearlong recession. With many more years of painful reform ahead, it is likely that GDP growth will continue to fall short of both consensus and official …
9th December 2013
Although Iceland’s GDP data is very volatile, Q3’s sharp economic expansion shows that the country is successfully rebuilding its economy. … Iceland GDP (Q3 …
6th December 2013
The weakening Norwegian economy prompted the Norges Bank to push back its tightening cycle today. With the Bank revising down its economic forecasts closer to our own, we agree with its new projection that rates will remain on hold until at least …
5th December 2013
Sweden’s much weaker than anticipated rise in GDP in Q3 increases the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its monetary policy stance. … Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3 …
29th November 2013
Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirm that the economy is continuing to withstand the effects of the strong currency. But growth remains steady rather than spectacular. … Swiss GDP (Q3 …
28th November 2013
Q3’s rebound in mainland Norwegian GDP growth concealed mounting evidence that the country’s boom is fading. … Norwegian GDP (Q3 …
19th November 2013
Norway’s long housing boom is losing steam. Although a collapse in prices is unlikely, the slowdown in the housing market suggests that the economy will weaken more than the consensus expects. … Norway’s housing boom is …
5th November 2013
As expected, both the Swedish Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank both held their policy ratesunchanged today. Given our below-consensus outlook for both economies, we do not expect eitherto hike rates until 2015. … Swedish and Norwegian rates on hold until …
24th October 2013
We think that the continued strength of the franc will weigh heavily on Switzerland’s exports for some time yet. But fears of overheating in the property market seem overdone, implying that a brighter outlook for domestic spending should ensure a steady …
17th October 2013
Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hikingcycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. … Norges Bank unlikely to hike before …
19th September 2013
Denmark’s year-long experiment with negative deposit rates is likely to come to an end next year. Butwe think that markets are wrong to expect a second rate hike before the end of 2014. … When will Denmark normalise monetary …
13th September 2013
Icelandic GDP fell sharply in Q2. But behind the headline figure, the data confirmed that the economy is still on the road to recovery, albeit a long and tortuous one. … Iceland GDP (Q2 …
6th September 2013
The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could remain on hold for rather longer. … Riksbank’s …
5th September 2013
Swiss Q2 GDP data revealed that activity continued to pick up pretty strongly. While modest export growth is likely to mean that the recovery is not particularly rapid, a healthy domestic economy should promote steady growth in the next couple of years. … …
3rd September 2013
The Conservative-led opposition is favourite to win the Norwegian election on the 9th September. But the party looks unlikely to tackle the economy’s twin addiction to energy exports and household debt. In fact, it may exacerbate it. … What would a new …
