Filtered by Subscriptions: Nordic & Swiss Economics Use setting Nordic & Swiss Economics
Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in order to respond to very low inflation and policy easing by …
11th February 2016
Although Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged again, upward inflation pressures and domestic economic strength mean that rate hikes are likely later this year. … Icelandic rates on hold but more policy tightening …
10th February 2016
Denmark’s large current account surplus should narrow in the coming years as the economic recovery there takes hold, but it will not disappear entirely. This will sustain the upward pressure on the krone’s peg to the euro, underlining the need for …
8th February 2016
Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the extra deflationary pressure that it has caused could have …
18th January 2016
The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to intervene in the currency market. … Swedish Consumer …
14th January 2016
Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that it will probably only be able to stem the krona’s …
7th January 2016
The Norges Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, but with growth slowing and inflation set to fall, interest rate cuts look highly likely next year, starting at the next policy meeting in March. … Norges Bank signals rate cuts next …
17th December 2015
The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be loosened further in the euro-zone, the Riksbank will be …
15th December 2015
November’s consumer prices data showed a continued divergence between the subdued rates of inflation in Sweden and Denmark and stronger price pressures in Norway, reflecting the recent depreciation of its currency. … Swedish, Danish & Norwegian Consumer …
10th December 2015
With the ECB’s cautious action last week reducing upward pressure on the franc against the euro, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was able to leave policy on hold as expected today. But we still think that the ECB will expand its QE programme next year and …
Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to keep its key interest rates unchanged was merely a reflection of the improvement in the short-term inflation outlook and a tighter policy stance will still be required next year. … Iceland holds rates but more …
9th December 2015
The solid growth in Iceland’s GDP in Q3 confirmed that the economy is performing strongly and has put the 2008 collapse of the banking sector behind it. With domestic demand very healthy, the central bank is unlikely to be deterred from hiking rates. … …
8th December 2015
The Swiss GDP release revealed that growth stalled in Q3 and November’s manufacturing PMI points to worse to come. This raises the likelihood that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will increase its policy support in the coming months. … Swiss GDP (Q3 …
1st December 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3 15) …
30th November 2015
The latest comments from Chairman Thomas Jordan suggest that the Swiss National Bank will act decisively to limit franc strength, including through further direct intervention in FX markets. But we doubt that it will be able to prevent some appreciation …
26th November 2015
Norway’s oil and gas sector was not as strong in Q3 as the headline GDP data suggest. And growth in the mainland economy slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary policy early next year. … Norwegian GDP (Q3 …
17th November 2015
The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in October suggests that the Riksbank will need to put any lingering concerns about household debt to one side and increase its monetary policy support in December. … Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct. …
12th November 2015
Swiss CPI inflation held at a record low in October, increasing the likelihood that the SNB will intervene in foreign exchange markets before long to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc from adding to deflationary pressure. … Swiss Consumer Prices …
5th November 2015
The Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold today, but its loosening cycle is not over. Inflation looks set to fall next year and, as a result, we have pencilled in a 25 basis point cut in March. … Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut likely next …
Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to raise its key interest rates by 25bp does not mark theend of its tightening cycle. A further rate rise is likely at the next meeting in December. … Iceland raises rates and tightening cycle not yet …
4th November 2015
The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to increase the size of its government bond-buying programme was clearly a response to the growing anticipation of more stimulus from the ECB. We think that these pressures will force the Riksbank into doing more as soon …
28th October 2015
The decline in oil prices has weighed on the Norwegian mainland economy and things could get worse before they get better. But ramped-up policy support from the Government and central bank next year should prevent the economy from falling into a more …
20th October 2015
The shift to the right in yesterday’s Swiss election will mean continued resistance to immigration and perhaps more business-friendly policies. But exchange rate developments are more important for the economy and, with upward pressure on the franc likely …
19th October 2015
The improvement in Sweden’s labour market in recent months has exceeded consensus expectations and those of the Riksbank. But conditions are still far from healthy and wage growth remains subdued, suggesting that the unemployment data will not stop the …
15th October 2015
The small rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in September to just above zero maybe just about enough to prevent the Riksbank from loosening policy further at the end of this month. But we still expect further action by December. … Swedish Consumer …
13th October 2015
Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to leave its main interest rates on hold merely marks apause for breath in its tightening cycle. We think that further rate rises will be needed before the endof the year. … Icelandic interest rates on hold, but …
30th September 2015
The Norges Bank’s decision to cut its policy rate today was accompanied by a suggestion that further interest rate cuts could follow. We think that another cut could come in Q2 next year. … Norges Bank cuts rates and signals more loosening to …
24th September 2015
The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc and renewed increase in economic activity has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep policy on hold for the time being. But we think that renewed upward pressure on the currency and further export weakness …
17th September 2015
The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. … Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next …
16th September 2015
The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged suggested that it has been reassured by the recent run of better-than-expected activity and inflation data. But with inflation still below zero and no let-up in deflationary …
3rd September 2015
Q2’s GDP release revealed that Switzerland has so far avoided a recession despite the strength of the franc. But it seems very unlikely that positive contributions from net trade can be sustained and we see activity contracting again before long. … Swiss …
28th August 2015
Although Denmark’s central bank has started to unwind some of the special measures that it introduced earlier this year to cap upward pressure on the currency, we still think that the deposit rate is likely to remain at record lows until at least mid-2016 …
27th August 2015
Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside. … Rate cut in Iceland set to be a …
24th August 2015
Finland’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for the best part of three years. While we do not think that it will climb much further, we do not expect it to fall much over the next few years either. This will prevent Finland from contributing to the …
Norway’s Q2 GDP data showed that lower energy prices continued to weigh on the oil and gas sector. But the mainland economy also slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary policy next month. … Norwegian GDP (Q2 …
20th August 2015
Today’s rate hike by Iceland’s central bank is likely to be part of a sustained tightening cycle to counter strong domestic demand growth and inflationary pressures. And we think further rate increases will be needed in the coming months, as the …
19th August 2015
The rebound in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in July might suggest that the Riksbank won’t loosen monetary policy further at its next meeting. But the bigger picture is that inflation is still extremely weak, indicating that more action is needed. … …
13th August 2015
The provisional estimate of Swedish Q2 GDP revealed that the economic recovery regained some momentum after the disappointing start to the year. But we doubt that it will prevent the Riksbank from cutting the policy rate further below zero. … Swedish GDP …
30th July 2015
The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate below zero in June vindicated the Riksbank’s decision earlier this month to cut its policy rate further and extend its bond-buying programme. But we think that it still has more work to do. … Swedish Consumer …
14th July 2015
Sweden’s exporters are finally starting to feel the benefits of the krona’s decline over the past couple of years. But firms’ desire to widen profit margins, weak global demand and uncertainty about the krona in the face of ECB stimulus and the Greek …
7th July 2015
Sweden’s central bank today stepped up its monetary policy stimulus to protect the nascent uptrend in inflation and fight the recent strengthening of the krona. But with the upward pressure on the currency unlikely to abate, we think that the Riksbank may …
2nd July 2015
We suspect that today’s interest rate cut by the Norges Bank, from 1.25% to 1.00%, won’t be the last loosening of monetary policy this year. … Norges Bank signals a further rate cut this …
18th June 2015
The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflected the franc’s stabilisation at a slightly lower level. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency to prompt the SNB to cut rates and intervene in foreign …
Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate nudged up in May, the big picture is that it remains very low in spite of the Riksbank’s aggressive policy easing. As such, the central bank will need to do more at its next meeting in July. … Swedish Consumer …
11th June 2015
Iceland’s central bank raised its main interest rates by 50bp today, as expected, in what looks likely to be the beginning of a tightening cycle designed to counter strong domestic demand growth and building inflationary pressures. … Iceland’s Sedlabanki …
10th June 2015
Although Iceland’s economy contracted in Q1, the continued strength of domestic demand means that the central bank is still likely to start raising interest rates at tomorrow’s policy meeting. … Iceland GDP (Q1 …
9th June 2015
The Icelandic Government today presented its long-awaited plan to lift its capital controls after more than six years. While a detailed programme for their removal is a welcome step, the controversial “stability tax” may be challenged in the courts, …
8th June 2015
Denmark’s forthcoming general election appears to be an increasingly close contest. But the consensus between the two major parties on many issues means that the result is unlikely to alter the economic and fiscal outlook to any meaningful extent. … …
5th June 2015
Q1 GDP data confirmed that Finland’s economy is still in the doldrums. While we think that growth will pick up later in the year, Finland is likely to be among the euro-zone’s weakest economies in 2015. … Finland GDP (Q1 …
4th June 2015
Swiss GDP data for Q1 probably exaggerate the true hit to exports from the appreciation of the franc. But with the currency likely to remain at a very high level, the economy is set to expand only modestly this year. … Swiss GDP (Q1 …
29th May 2015
