Filtered by Subscriptions: Nordic & Swiss Economics Use setting Nordic & Swiss Economics
The Norges Bank is almost certain to leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting on 27th October. Indeed, at its last meeting in September the Bank changed the wording in its policy statement from “the key policy rate may be reduced in the course of …
21st October 2016
Inflation has undershot the Riksbank’s forecastssince it last met to set policy in September. Butwe expect inflation to rise again before long, andwith economic conditions strong there is lesspressure to respond to temporary setbacks inhitting the …
20th October 2016
September’s Swedish Labour Force Survey confirmed that the previous month’s poorresults were a one-off and highlights the tightness of the labour market. With firms’hiring intentions picking up in recent months, employment should continue to rise. … …
The Nordic and Swiss economies’ reasonable economic performance, low public debt and stable political backdrop should help to maintain their safe haven status. But there will be some marked economic and policy divergences. Slow growth and low inflation in …
17th October 2016
Fears that domestic price pressures might prompt the Swiss National Bank to tighten monetary policy proved unfounded today as it left its interest rate target at 0.25%. The Bank’s tone was gloomier than expected and its low inflation forecast supports our …
16th October 2016
The uncertainty surrounding capital account liberalisation suggests that the Central Bank of Iceland will keep interest rates unchanged for a while longer. But with inflationary pressures set to build, we think that the Bank will raise rates next year. … …
5th October 2016
The Norges Bank left its key policy rate on hold today and signalled that no change was likely in the remainder of the year. But we think that more monetary loosening will be needed in 2017. … Norges Bank to cut interest rates to zero next …
22nd September 2016
The minutes of the Riksbank’s latest meeting revealed that at least half of the Executive Board thought that there is little need for the Bank to extend asset purchases beyond December. Indeed, increasing inflationary pressure could see the Bank raising …
21st September 2016
Despite the improvement in financial market conditions, continued recovery of the Swiss economy and softening of the franc, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) re-emphasised today that it intends to maintain its very supportive policy stance for the foreseeable …
19th September 2016
The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave policy on hold came as no surprise as easing Brexit fears and the ECB’s inaction have led upward pressure on the franc to abate. But the SNB made clear that itwill renew its currency interventions if needed. …
15th September 2016
Despite weaker-than-expected Swedish inflation in August, price pressures are set to increase in the coming months. And as higher inflation feeds through to inflation expectations, the Riksbank will need to start to thinking about tightening policy. … …
13th September 2016
With the Riksbank on hold, rising inflation means that real interest rates in Sweden are set to drop to a 40-year low. Such an accommodative stance seems unnecessary given the sound economic outlook and we suspect that the Bank will raise interest rates …
7th September 2016
Q2’s healthy rise in Swiss GDP suggests that the economy was coping well with the franc’s continued strength, but the increase was flattered by temporary factors. And while CPI inflation edged up in August, deflationary risks remain acute. … Swiss GDP …
6th September 2016
In Q2 Danish GDP growth was worryingly dependent on external demand and a drop in imports, while survey indicators suggest that the economy will struggle to grow over the coming months. … Danish GDP (Q2 …
31st August 2016
The hit to Norway’s GDP growth from lower oil prices appears to be fading. Nevertheless, with growth still fairly slow and inflation set to fall sharply, we still expect the Norges Bank to loosen monetary policy this year. … Norwegian GDP (Q2 …
Swedish inflation unexpectedly reached a fresh four-year high in July. But inflation is still below the Riksbank’s target and it is too soon to rule out further policy action. … Swedish Consumer Prices (Jul. …
11th August 2016
Inflation in Norway has been much stronger than the central bank forecast in June, so an interest rate cut in September looks unlikely. But we still expect inflation to fall sharply over the next 12 months. So policy loosening should come back on the …
10th August 2016
Sweden’s weak Q2 GDP growth rate is at odds with both the monthly economic data and the positive tone of recent surveys. As such, we suspect a decent rebound is on the cards for Q3. … Swedish fundamentals stronger than Q2 GDP data …
2nd August 2016
The first estimate of Sweden’s GDP in Q2 was much weaker than expected, and the release also revealed a downward revision to growth in what was an already-soft Q1. … Swedish GDP (Q2 16, 1st …
27th July 2016
The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. … Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit …
19th July 2016
The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. … Swedish Consumer Prices (June …
12th July 2016
Sweden’s Riksbank has pushed back its expectations for a rate rise. Although the negative impact of previous falls in energy prices on inflation is fading and domestic inflationary pressures are picking up, the Riksbank might still need to intervene in …
6th July 2016
The Danish krone would probably face significant upward pressure in the event of a Brexit. But as the Danmarks Nationalbank has scope to loosen policy further, a Brexit is unlikely to break its euro peg. … Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency …
22nd June 2016
While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has vowed to limit any impact on the franc if the UK votes to leave the EU tomorrow, we doubt that it has enough ammunition to prevent an appreciation. We think that the currency would rise towards parity with the euro …
Finland’s competitiveness pact probably won’t boost employment by as much as the Government hopes. But it is still a positive move that should help to lower labour costs and boost output. … Will Finland’s competitiveness pact boost the …
17th June 2016
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates on hold as expected today, but it will continue to intervene in FX markets if needed, as is likely in the run-up to the UK referendum. An actual Brexit would most probably prompt the SNB to cut interest …
16th June 2016
The UK is Sweden’s fourth largest export market, but the direct trade impact of a Brexit would probably be small. A Brexit could have a bigger impact on Sweden through its effect on the krona. And further down the line, there could be calls for Sweden …
15th June 2016
Sweden’s inflation rate fell by more than expected in May. With underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take further policy action. … Swedish Consumer Prices (May …
14th June 2016
Iceland’s second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP was down to the volatility of trade. The big picture is that domestic demand growth picked up and the outlook is positive. … Iceland GDP (Q1 …
7th June 2016
The recent rise in oil prices will provide some short-term support to the Norwegian economy, but the associated strengthening of the krone will hinder the economy’s rebalancing away from oil. We expect the Norges Bank to cut interest rates further this …
6th June 2016
Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. … Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet …
1st June 2016
The pick-up in Danish GDP growth in Q1 is welcome news after weakness in the second half of 2015. But sluggish euro-zone growth will also weigh on Danish prospects, and survey measures paint a weak picture of the near-term outlook. … Danish GDP (Q1 …
31st May 2016
The rise in Swedish inflation will prove short-lived if inflation expectations stay below 2%. In order to boost such expectations, the Riksbank must ensure that the krona does not appreciate strongly. … Swedish inflation outlook dependent on krona …
21st May 2016
The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged today, but with the economy weak and inflation set to fall this year, we think that further loosening is on the way. … Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut on the …
12th May 2016
Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. … Iceland holds rates but further tightening will be …
11th May 2016
Sweden’s Riksbank expanded its QE programme and kept its options open for easing later in the year. While the economy is growing strongly and inflation has picked up recently, a rising currency and fairly weak inflation outlook might prompt further …
21st April 2016
The Norges Bank has clearly become more concerned about threats to financial stability, but we do not think that this will prevent it from cutting the policy rate to zero by the end of the year. … Will financial stability concerns prevent Norges Bank rate …
30th March 2016
The growing unease over the potential impact of negative interest rates suggests that Sweden’s Riksbank will think twice about cutting the repo rate further below zero. It can draw on other policy measures so it is not yet out of options. But its …
17th March 2016
We think that today’s interest rate cut by the Norges Bank will be followed by another 25bp reduction in June. But concerns about household debt will prevent further loosening beyond that. … Norges Bank cuts rates, but concerns about debt …
The lack of upward pressure on the franc following the last ECB meeting has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to leave policy on hold for now. But deflation dangers are particularly severe in Switzerland and we suspect that the Bank has more work to …
Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row, citing low global inflation and a strengthening currency. But with inflationary pressures building and the economy growing strongly, more rate …
16th March 2016
The renewed fall in Sweden’s inflation rate in February was largely down to movements in energy prices. But with underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take further policy action. … Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb. …
15th March 2016
Although Icelandic GDP contracted in the final quarter of last year, the big picture is that annual GDP growth accelerated sharply in 2015. … Iceland GDP (Q4 …
10th March 2016
Q4’s rise in Swiss GDP came as a relief given the uncertain global environment ands trength of the franc. But with persistent deflation posing a serious threat to the economy, we still see the SNB increasing its policy support this month. … Swiss GDP (Q4 …
2nd March 2016
Although Sweden’s economic boom continued in Q4 2015, strong domestic demand has not yet fuelled inflationary pressures. As such, we continue to think that the Riksbank will need to ease policy further. … Swedish & Danish GDP (Q4 …
29th February 2016
The Norwegian economy looks much weaker than the Norges Bank had anticipated at its last meeting in December. With the outlook for GDP and inflation having deteriorated, we think that the Bank will cut its policy rate by at least 50 basis points this …
24th February 2016
Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate rose by more than expected in January, the upward trend is far from assured. As such, we still see a strong possibility of additional policy easing by the Riksbank later this year. … Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan. …
18th February 2016
The adverse reaction to the decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to lower its policy rate further below zero illustrates investors’ concerns about the impact of negative interest rates on banks’ profitability. But we doubt this will deter the European Central …
17th February 2016
In 2015, growth in Norway’s mainland economy slowed to its weakest pace in six years. And low oil prices seem likely to continue to weigh on the economy. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary policy in March. … Norwegian GDP …
16th February 2016
Data released on Friday showed that Finland’s economy returned to recession in the second half of last year. We suspect that this will be short lived, but the risks to our already below-consensus GDP growth forecasts lie to the downside. … Finland’s …
15th February 2016
