Filtered by Subscriptions: Nordic & Swiss Economics Use setting Nordic & Swiss Economics
Prospects appear to have improved for all of the Nordic and Swiss economies, with surveys pointing to annual GDP growth of up to 3% in Switzerland and 5% in Sweden. Inflation has been subdued on the whole, but several factors point to a marked divergence …
21st April 2017
As next week’s monetary policy meeting is the last before asset purchases are set to end in June, the Riksbank will probably signal whether they will be extended. While CPIF inflation, which excludes the direct effect of interest rate changes, …
20th April 2017
Activity surveys suggest that economic growth in the largest Nordic and Swiss economies is set to pick up. In Switzerland, the KOF Business Barometer points to annual GDP growth rising from Q4’s 0.6% to around 2.5%. In Sweden, the NIER Economic Tendency …
13th April 2017
While conventional metrics give some support to the Swiss National Bank’s view that the franc is “significantly overvalued”, the evidence from the economy implies that it is not. What’s more, we think the currency is more likely to rise in the near term …
March’s fall in inflation was partly due to temporary effects and inflation should rise in April. As there is now an increasing risk that inflation will overshoot the Riksbank’s target, later this month we expect the Bank to signal that its asset …
12th April 2017
11th April 2017
March’s small rise in the Norges Bank’s preferred measure of inflation was probably just a blip. Indeed, we think that inflation will fall to about 1.0% later this year, prompting the central bank to cut its key policy rate from 0.50% to 0.25%. … …
10th April 2017
March’s Swiss inflation data do little to alter the picture of extremely subdued price pressures. With the core rate barely positive and inflation expectations very low, we expect the Swiss National Bank to maintain supportive policies including FX …
6th April 2017
Central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have all voiced concerns about overheating in their housing markets. In Switzerland, macro-prudential policies have already served to cool house price inflation and there is scope to do more. This should …
5th April 2017
The latest raft of positive Swedish data supports our view that the Riksbank’s extremely accommodative monetary policy is no longer justified – we expect the Bank to stop purchasing assets in June and to raise interest rates by the end of this year. … …
March’s PMIs point to faster manufacturing growth in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. They also imply that price pressures are building in Sweden, which we think will force the Riksbank to tighten policy before the end of the year. … Manufacturing PMIs …
3rd April 2017
Market movements across the Nordic and Swiss economies were fairly limited in March. The main exceptions were in the currency market, with both the Norwegian krone and Icelandic króna recording sharp declines against the euro and US dollar. Despite our …
31st March 2017
March’s rise in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer to a three-and-a-half-year high provided further evidence that the economy made a positive start to 2017. But with inflation still low and persistent worries about the impact of a strong franc on exporters, …
30th March 2017
Despite softening in March, Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator still points to a surge in GDP growth. With the survey breakdown suggesting that domestic demand is increasingly driving growth, the Riksbank will become more confident that underlying price …
29th March 2017
While today’s data suggests that Swedish growth may have slowed in Q1, it still looks set to be strong. And as PPI inflation remains high, inflationary pressures appear to be rising and we expect the Riksbank to tighten monetary policy later this year. … …
28th March 2017
Underlying Swedish inflation is set to pick up further and means that the Riksbank’s ultra-loose policy is no longer justified. Conversely, the outlook for Norwegian inflation calls for an interest rate cut. Economic surveys for the largest two Nordic …
24th March 2017
We doubt that the labour market is recovering as quickly as the decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of unemployment suggests. While things are gradually improving, wage growth looks set to remain subdued in the first half of this year. … Norwegian …
22nd March 2017
Although Switzerland’s economy registered another disappointing quarter of growth in Q4, expanding by just 0.1% q/q, business and consumer surveys paint a more positive picture for 2017. The KOF Business Barometer rose to a 41-month high in February and …
21st March 2017
The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came despite a deterioration in the outlook for inflation. Policymakers remain concerned about the impact of loose monetary policy on the housing market. But we still think that the Bank will …
16th March 2017
The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold was as expected given the recent rise in inflation. But with euro-zone political developments likely to put upward pressure on the franc, we think that the SNB will continue to intervene …
The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to keep policy unchanged after the lifting of capital controls was unsurprising. The recent drop in the króna reduces the need for the CBI to cut interest rates soon. But with the króna set to rise again before long, …
15th March 2017
After rising to a five-year high in February, Swedish headline inflation is set to ease back in the coming months as energy inflation cools. But with signs that underlying price pressures are rising, we expect the Riksbank to tighten policy this year. … …
14th March 2017
The Icelandic króna has fallen after the final step in the lifting of capital controls. But with tourism set to grow strongly, we suspect that the króna will rise and put downward pressure on import prices. That will prompt the Central Bank of Iceland to …
13th March 2017
We think that the Norges Bank will leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting next week. While inflation has fallen much more quickly than policymakers expected, accelerating house prices are a concern. So for now, we expect the Bank to leave its …
10th March 2017
February’s inflation data revealed that inflation is falling much more quickly than the Norges Bank expected. While activity surveys have strengthened recently, we think that inflation will continue to fall, prompting interest rate cuts later this year. … …
The Swiss National Bank will reiterate after its meeting on 16th March that it remains fully prepared to act to prevent any significant appreciation of the Swiss franc in the coming months. Although inflation has picked up since the start of the year, the …
9th March 2017
Ahead of the Central Bank of Iceland’s meeting next week, today’s data revealed that Icelandic GDP expanded by a strong 2.6% in Q4. Despite the strength of the economy, the recent appreciation of the króna points to looser monetary policy. On balance, …
Switzerland’s consumer prices data for February revealed that prices are finally rising again. But with the franc likely to strengthen this year, underlying price pressures are set to remain subdued. … Swiss Consumer Prices …
8th March 2017
This month see the first of a number of key elections in the euro-zone this year. Investors are likely to become increasingly worried about the potential for anti-euro parties to enter government and the implications that that might have for the future of …
6th March 2017
Both industrial production and services output in Sweden rose at a decent pace in January. And with surveys pointing to further gains, the Swedish economy is set for another strong quarter in Q1 and inflationary pressures should continue to build. … …
3rd March 2017
The lacklustre expansion of Swiss GDP in Q4 suggests that the negative effects of deflation and the strong franc are still lingering. And with political risks in the euro-zone set to keep the franc strong, exporters are likely to remain under pressure. … …
2nd March 2017
The minutes of the Riksbank’s February meeting were fairly dovish. With board members concerned about the krona’s appreciation and political risks in the euro-zone, we think that the Bank will wait until July before dropping talk of the repo rate being …
1st March 2017
Activity surveys suggest that Q4’s slowdown in Finland will be short-lived. And February’s PMIs point to faster manufacturing growth in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. They also imply that price pressures are building in Sweden. … Finnish GDP (Q4) & …
The Icelandic króna has appreciated significantly over the past month, as the central bank reiterated its desire to reduce its foreign exchange intervention. More generally, bond yields have fallen across the Nordic and Swiss economies, while Norwegian …
28th February 2017
Swedish growth picked up sharply in Q4, driven mainly by external demand. In Denmark, GDP growth was slower and is set to remain fairly subdued. … Swedish & Danish GDP (Q4) & Swedish Retail Sales …
Despite edging down in February, the NIER’s Economic Tendency Indicator still points to a surge in Swedish GDP growth. And with inflation expectations rising far above the Riksbank’s target, the Bank’s next move will be to tighten policy. … Swedish …
24th February 2017
December’s sharp decline in Norway’s unemployment rate was not as encouraging as it first appears. And while surveys suggest that employment growth will pick up, we suspect that wage growth will remain subdued. … Norwegian Labour Force Survey …
22nd February 2017
While inflation fell in both Sweden and Norway in January, the outlook for prices in these countries differs significantly. Consumer price inflation in Sweden fell from 1.7% to 1.4% in January. But a slowdown was always likely, due to base effects. We …
21st February 2017
The dip in Swedish inflation in January was mainly due to base effects and will be reversed in February. And with pay growth set to pick up after this year’s wage negotiations, underlying inflationary pressures should continue to build. … Swedish Consumer …
17th February 2017
While the Riksbank maintained a very dovish tone today, the strength of the Swedish economy and rising inflationary pressures mean that the Bank will soon have to change its stance. We expect the repo rate to be increased by the end of this year. The …
15th February 2017
Switzerland’s consumer and producer prices data for January provided some hope that the prolonged period of falling prices may finally be over. But with the franc likely to strengthen this year, underlying price pressures are set to remain subdued. … …
14th February 2017
In January, the Norges Bank’s favoured measure of inflation fell to a 37-month low. We think that it will fall further, prompting the Bank to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points in the second half of the year. … Norwegian Consumer Prices …
10th February 2017
Recent economic data support our view that the Riksbank will raise interest rates this year. But given the recent appreciation of the krona, the Riksbank is likely to maintain a very dovish tone in its communications next week. … Riksbank to maintain …
9th February 2017
Norway’s economic recovery picked up in Q4, and surveys suggest that growth might edge up further in the near term. This should add to the upward pressure on the krone as oil prices rise this year. … Norwegian GDP …
The Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) kept monetary policy unchanged today, but struck a hawkish note in its accompanying statement. However, we believe that the downward effects of a further strong appreciation of the króna on import prices will more than …
8th February 2017
The recent appreciation of the Swiss franc suggests that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may now be willing to tolerate a (slightly) stronger currency. But we see the franc rising even further to reach parity with the euro later this year. Given the seismic …
6th February 2017
Both Swedish industrial production and services output growth picked up over Q4 and are thus consistent with a rise in GDP growth. Meanwhile, this morning’s services PMI is consistent with strong growth at the start of 2017 as well. … Swedish Industrial & …
3rd February 2017
The króna has depreciated fairly sharply since the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) last met. But given our expectation that it will rise again, we do not think the Bank will respond to recent currency movements by changing policy next week. … Icelandic …
2nd February 2017
January’s PMIs add to the evidence that the Swedish economy has made a strong start to the year. They also suggest that price pressures are building in Switzerland. … Manufacturing PMIs …
1st February 2017
The Nordic and Swiss currencies have generally strengthened this month, albeit for different reasons. This is a trend that we expect to continue this year. … Currencies make a strong start to the …
31st January 2017
