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Inflation remained above the Riksbank’s target in September and, with the economy performing strongly, domestic price pressures will continue to build. We therefore expect the Riksbank to start signalling soon that interest rates will rise in the first …
12th October 2017
While Norwegian inflation picked up in September, domestic price pressures remain subdued and inflation is unlikely to meet the Norges Bank’s target any time soon. We therefore think that interest rate hikes in Norway are a very long way off. … Norwegian …
10th October 2017
The Swiss National Bank will surely welcome the likely announcement later this month by the European Central Bank that it will wind up its asset purchase programme next year. This will probably help the Swiss franc depreciate a bit further, supporting the …
5th October 2017
The rise in Swiss headline inflation in September will be welcomed by the Swiss National Bank, but subdued price pressures mean we expect the SNB to keep rates on hold until 2020. Elsewhere, Swedish August production data appear to suggest that the …
Despite the increased likelihood of looser fiscal policy next year following the collapse of the government last month, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) today opted to cut interest rates. We suspect that the CBI has now reached the end of its loosening …
4th October 2017
September’s Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs both rose to high levels. But while fairly strong growth is unlikely to push inflation up in Switzerland, price pressures are mounting in Sweden. … Manufacturing PMIs …
2nd October 2017
Bond yields across the Nordic and Swiss economies rose in September, largely in line with global trends as investors brought forward their expectations for monetary policy normalisation by the US Fed and the ECB. Meanwhile, the unexpected collapse of the …
29th September 2017
September’s rebound in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer leaves it consistent with a pick-up in annual GDP growth to around 2%. But the KOF has overstated growth recently and, in any case, inflation looks set to remain not far above zero, so we doubt that …
We no longer expect the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to cut interest rates again this year. The Government’s collapse and prospect of a left-wing coalition taking power have increased the chance of a expansion. And if sustained the króna’s recent …
27th September 2017
In September a sharp rise in manufacturing sentiment drove the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator to its highest since 2011. With the growth outlook strong and inflation expectations rebounding, we still think that the Riksbank will raise its policy rate …
In light of the disappointing performance of the Swiss economy in the first half of the year, we have revised down our 2017 GDP forecast substantially. We still expect the economic recovery to gain pace in 2018 and 2019, partly reflecting the depreciation …
22nd September 2017
The Norges Bank today raised its interest rate forecast, implying that it will begin tightening monetary policy mid-way through 2019. By contrast, we think that it will wait until 2020. … Interest rate hikes in Norway a very long way …
21st September 2017
Today’s Riksbank minutes suggest that at least two of the six Board members would support an extension of the Riksbank’s QE programme beyond the current December end date. But given our forecast for inflation to remain above the Riksbank’s target between …
The Norges Bank is likely to leave the key policy rate at 0.50% next week, and we think that it will also leave its interest rate forecast unchanged, showing no change in rates until 2019. Although the economy is performing well, interest rate hikes look …
14th September 2017
The Swiss National Bank today acknowledged the depreciation of the franc over recent months but stressed that it was still necessary to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and maintain the option of currency intervention to reduce any upward …
The Q2 GDP data for the Nordic and Swiss economies were a mixed bag, but more timely indicators point to a strong second half of the year. … Q2 GDP data a mixed bag, but timelier data look …
13th September 2017
Inflation was above both the Riksbank’s forecast and its target in August. With the strengthening economy suggesting that inflationary pressure is building, we think that the Riksbank will soon start forecasting interest rate rises in the first half of …
12th September 2017
In August, inflation in Norway fell further below the Norges Bank’s target. While inflation should stop falling by the end of the year, it will rebound only slowly. So interest rate hikes are a very long way off. … Norwegian Consumer Prices …
11th September 2017
Iceland’s second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP was down to the volatility of trade. While the trade balance appears to be declining a bit faster than we expected as a result of the strong króna, the outlook for Icelandic GDP growth is still positive. …
8th September 2017
At its meeting on 14th September, the Swiss National Bank will surely draw some comfort from the depreciation of the franc since it last met in June. But renewed geopolitical tensions and the ECB’s reluctance to commit fully to QE tapering suggest that …
7th September 2017
While inflation in Sweden is higher than the Riksbank’s 2% target, the Bank’s decision to keep its forward guidance unchanged was not a major shock. The Riksbank is unlikely to shift its guidance until after the ECB signals that it is set to taper its own …
A large gain in services output offset a fall in industrial production in July and suggests that overall the Swedish economy started Q3 on a fairly strong note. While the PMI surveys point to slower growth ahead, as the economy is already operating above …
6th September 2017
Switzerland’s Q2 GDP release confirmed that the economy expanded only very slowly in the first half of the year. While survey indicators suggest that growth will pick up, subdued inflation will keep interest rates on hold for a long time yet. … Swiss GDP …
5th September 2017
Polls suggest that the Green Party might emerge from Norway’s general election, on 11th September, as “kingmaker”. In that case, confidence in the large oil sector would probably fall. But overall, we doubt that the election will alter the economic …
4th September 2017
Bond yields in most Nordic and Swiss markets fell in August, matching global trends. Currencies recorded mixed performances against the euro, with the Swiss franc depreciating while the Swedish krona rose. As Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to tighten policy …
1st September 2017
August’s manufacturing PMIs pointed to continued recoveries in Switzerland and Norway, but the Swedish index weakened significantly. That said, with other indicators suggesting that the Swedish economy is still performing well, we doubt that the PMI will …
Economic growth and inflation have been stronger than expected since the Riksbank last met. Despite these developments, policymaker’s concerns about a sharp rise in the krona suggest that the Bank will hold off from altering its forward guidance at next …
31st August 2017
The Danish economy notched up yet another decent quarter in Q2, with growth driven by domestic demand. We expect the economy to continue to perform well and have raised our 2017 GDP forecast to 2.5%. … Danish GDP …
Although surveys of overall economic sentiment in both Switzerland and Sweden fell in August, they still point to a healthy pace of GDP growth in both countries. But with inflation much stronger in Sweden than in Switzerland, we see the Riksbank starting …
30th August 2017
Norway’s mainland economy recorded another strong expansion in Q2 and forward-looking indicators suggest that the recovery will continue to gain pace. But with inflation set to fall further, we doubt that this will alter the stance of monetary policy. … …
24th August 2017
While the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) left rates unchanged today, our expectation that the króna will appreciate in the coming months means we expect one more rate cut this year, in November. … Central Bank of Iceland nearing the end of its loosening …
23rd August 2017
In recent months Swedish inflation has been artificially boosted by a new method for calculating package holiday prices. While the Riksbank will look through this particular effect, it is nevertheless clear that underlying inflation has risen and that …
22nd August 2017
The decline in Swiss unemployment in Q2 shows that improving economic conditions are continuing to feed through to the labour market. While we expect unemployment to fall further, we doubt that this will translate into stronger wage growth any time soon. …
17th August 2017
At its last meeting in June, when it cut interest rates for the second time this year, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) left the door open to further rate cuts. But given that the króna has slumped since then, it now seems more likely that the CBI will …
16th August 2017
July’s jump in Swedish inflation is partly due to a methodological change in the way that package holiday prices are tracked. Yet even excluding this effect, underlying inflation has picked up and looks set to rise further. … Swedish Consumer Prices …
15th August 2017
The Swiss franc has had a rocky ride over the past month. In late July, it depreciated sharply to SFr1.15 to the euro, its lowest level since January 2015 when the Swiss National Bank abandoned its exchange rate ceiling. The decline followed SNB Chairman …
11th August 2017
The Swedish industrial and services sectors have been performing well of late and the outlook is positive. With the Swedish economy firing on all cylinders, it won’t be long until the Riksbank changes course and tightens monetary policy. … Swedish …
10th August 2017
Inflation in Norway continued on its downward trend in July, and it is likely to fall a little further over the rest of the year. We think that it will remain well below target over the next few years, so interest rate hikes are a very long way off. … …
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be disappointed that July’s small rise in core inflation was driven by imported rather than domestically-produced products. As inflation expectations are consistent with core inflation remaining close to zero, the Bank …
7th August 2017
The Swiss franc was the worst performing major currency last month. While the franc’s depreciation has been stronger than we had anticipated, we still see it depreciating a little further against the euro over the next couple of years as very subdued …
3rd August 2017
July’s Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs point to a continued pick-up in industrial output growth in both countries. But the Swedish survey’s price index implies some downside risks to inflation in the near term. … Swedish & Norwegian Manufacturing …
1st August 2017
After last week’s political scandal, Sweden’s Government needs to boost its popularity. So the Government seems likely to row back from planned tax hikes ahead of next year’s general election. … Swedish political scandal lowers chance of tax …
31st July 2017
Sweden’s exceptionally strong GDP growth was driven entirely by domestic demand and highlights the need for monetary policy normalisation. Meanwhile, July’s rise in the Swiss KOF points to a pick-up in GDP growth there, but weak inflationary pressure …
28th July 2017
After fairly big rises in yields in June, July was a quieter month for Nordic & Swiss government bonds. There was more action in the currency market, with the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona rising against both the US dollar and euro while the Swiss …
27th July 2017
Both the Swedish Economic Tendency Survey and labour market indicators point to increasing wage and price pressures. This supports our view that the Riksbank and markets are underestimating how soon monetary policy will need to be tightened. … Swedish …
Economic prospects are fairly bright in the Nordic and Swiss countries. Switzerland is benefitting from faster growth in the euro-zone, Swedish firms are optimistic about their prospects, and Norway is recovering from its oil-related slowdown. As Swedish …
21st July 2017
July’s rise in headline inflation was driven entirely by higher house prices and far overstates the extent of price pressures in Iceland. With underlying inflation set to stay below zero, we expect the central bank to loosen policy further. … Iceland …
20th July 2017
The krona’s recent rise means that exchange rate effects will detract from Swedish inflation in 2018. But with domestic inflation set to rise further above 2%, this should not prevent the Riksbank from tightening policy. In fact, we think that the repo …
17th July 2017
The latest inflation data for June suggest that underlying price pressures remain subdued in Switzerland and Norway, but continue to build in Sweden. In Switzerland, core inflation, which excludes fresh and seasonal products as well as energy and fuels, …
14th July 2017
As underlying inflation is within touching distance of the Riksbank’s target, today’s rise in the krona should be followed by further gains as the remaining doves on the Executive Board come round to the view that ultra-loose policy is no longer required. …
13th July 2017
