Filtered by Subscriptions: Nordic & Swiss Economics Use setting Nordic & Swiss Economics
After leaving policy unchanged today, the Norges Bank looks almost certain to begin raising interest rates at its next meeting in September. But even as the central bank tightens monetary policy over the next few years, we think that falling oil prices …
16th August 2018
The renewed appreciation of the Swiss franc this week as investors sought out safe haven assets will not have been welcomed by the SNB. But the franc is still weaker than it has been over the past few years so we do not expect the SNB to alter its stance. …
10th August 2018
Underlying inflation is still fairly weak in the Nordic economies. But given increased capacity utilisation and rising wage pressures in both Sweden and Norway, we expect both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank to start raising interest rates before the end …
Non-energy inflation in Sweden has been unexpectedly weak in recent months, prompting investors to push back their expectations of the first rate rise into 2019. But there is evidence of rising cost pressures, which we think will give the Riksbank …
8th August 2018
July’s PMIs for the Nordic and Swiss countries, which were published this week, suggest that these countries continued their strong performance at the start of Q3. Swiss inflation data released earlier today provided little evidence that this was …
3rd August 2018
July’s rise in Swiss inflation was driven by faster energy and food inflation, while underlying price pressures remained very weak. And with the franc set to remain strong by historical standards, we expect the Swiss National Bank to leave interest rates …
The Norges Bank will soon start to tighten monetary policy. But in contrast to the consensus view, we think that as interest rates rise over the next few years, the krone will depreciate against the euro. … Norwegian krone to weaken even as interest rates …
1st August 2018
The Swedish economy grew very strongly in the first half of the year and is likely to continue performing well. This is set to drive wage growth gradually higher, prompting the Riksbank to raise interest rates at the end of this year. … Swedish GDP (Q2) & …
30th July 2018
Given the openness of the Nordic & Swiss economies, their policymakers will have breathed a sigh of relief at the easing of trade tensions this week between the EU and the US. But should the current ceasefire end, we think that Switzerland’s position …
27th July 2018
The Swedish economy continues to perform well. And with inflationary pressures gradually rising, we expect the Riksbank to raise interest rates this year. … Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Jul.) & Unemploy’t …
26th July 2018
Government bond yield curves in the Nordics and Switzerland have flattened this year, but we doubt that this signals that recessions are imminent in any of these economies. … Flatter yield curves not a cause for …
25th July 2018
Swiss and Nordic financial markets have been a mixed bag over the past month. Equities in most countries have risen, supported by continued fairly strong economic growth. But equities in Norway and Iceland have fallen. In Norway, this largely reflects the …
24th July 2018
While Swiss politicians have long railed against the strength of the franc, Finance Minister Ueli Maurer appeared to throw in the towel this week. But we doubt that exporters, which fared very well in Q2, will have to cope with a very strong currency for …
20th July 2018
Economic growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics looks set to remain pretty strong over the coming years. But inflationary pressures vary significantly between countries. We think that central banks in Sweden and Norway will start to raise interest …
According to the minutes of the Riksbank’s July meeting, Sweden’s monetary policymakers were particularly worried about the weakness of non-energy inflation. And with some justification. Data published this week showed that in June the CPIF excluding …
13th July 2018
June’s rise in Swedish CPIF inflation entirely reflected higher energy inflation. But with domestic price pressures building, and the latest minutes showing that Riksbank officials are increasingly concerned about stronger inflation, we continue to think …
12th July 2018
June’s decline in core inflation won’t stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates in September. But with price pressures building only slowly, the subsequent tightening cycle will be very slow. … Norwegian Consumer Prices …
10th July 2018
The main event this week was the Riksbank meeting , at which the Bank reiterated that it expected to raise interest rates in December. And data released since the meeting support the case for the Riksbank to begin tightening policy soon. Elsewhere, data …
6th July 2018
June’s rise in Swiss inflation was driven by faster imported inflation, which we doubt will last. Domestic price pressures remain subdued, so we expect the SNB to leave interest rates unchanged until 2020. Elsewhere, private sector production data in …
5th July 2018
The Riksbank looks very likely to raise interest rates in December. We think that the Bank will then raise interest rates more quickly in 2019 and 2020 than investors expect, causing the krona to strengthen. … Tighter monetary policy on the way in …
3rd July 2018
Switzerland’s manufacturing PMI survey for June suggested that the economy is growing strongly, but inflationary pressures are weak. By contrast, Sweden’s survey implies that growth will slow, but inflation pressures are building. So higher interest rates …
2nd July 2018
The Swiss Government this week made no progress towards reaching a deal with Brussels that would see Switzerland retain its unrestricted access to the Single Market. With the anti-immigrant SVP party announcing that it has collected enough signatures to …
29th June 2018
The small rise in the KOF Economic Barometer in June suggests that the Swiss economy will continue to grow at a decent pace. But with still little sign that this is generating inflationary pressures, we expect the SNB to stick to its ultra-accommodative …
Norway’s labour market recovery should continue to push up wage growth over the coming years. But with wage expectations still quite low, wage growth will probably rise only slowly, so the Norges Bank will be very cautious about tightening monetary …
27th June 2018
This week’s quarterly policy statement from the Swiss National Bank strengthened our view that tighter monetary policy in Switzerland is a long way off. By contrast, higher interest rates are imminent in Norway. Meanwhile, data released this week for …
22nd June 2018
Today’s policy announcement by the Norges Bank shows that it is on the brink of raising interest rates. But once it has started, it will tighten policy only very slowly. And because we forecast oil prices to fall, we think that the krone will depreciate …
21st June 2018
Despite the ECB calling time on its asset purchase programme last week, the Swiss National Bank today left its monetary policy stance unchanged and cited worries about franc strength, political developments in the euro-zone and protectionism. With …
In contrast to the euro-zone and UK, the Swiss and Nordic economies grew fairly quickly in Q1. Finland was the top performer, with GDP rising by 1.2% on the quarter. Iceland was hot on its heels, growing by 1.1%. A little further back was Sweden, where …
19th June 2018
The Swiss and Nordic central banks are unlikely to follow the ECB in announcing significant changes to monetary policy over the next month. … Will the Swiss and Nordic central banks follow the …
18th June 2018
May’s rise in Swedish CPIF inflation primarily reflected stronger energy and food inflation. But with domestic inflationary pressure building, we continue to think the Riksbank will raise rates in December. … Swedish Consumer Prices …
14th June 2018
The Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today and reiterated that a tight monetary policy stance is still needed, given the strong economy and pressures in the labour market. We think that the Bank is underestimating the latter and expect it to …
13th June 2018
May’s weak inflation data in Norway strengthen the case for the Norges Bank to move only very slowly towards tightening monetary policy. We suspect that it will wait until early 2019 before raising interest rates, later than the Bank and investors …
11th June 2018
The Icelandic economy had a weak start to the year, as net trade and investment weighed on growth and offset the continued strength of private consumption. But the surveys suggest that the outlook remains fairly bright. … Icelandic GDP …
8th June 2018
The Central Bank of Iceland is likely to leave policy unchanged next week. But with imported inflation rising and domestic price pressures set to grow, we see the Bank raising interest rates later this year. … Inflationary pressures in Iceland set to …
6th June 2018
Although headline inflation rose in May to its highest level in over seven years, the core rate fell to a nine-month low. This will be a concern to the SNB, especially given the appreciation of the franc over the past week or so. We expect the Bank to …
Political turmoil in Italy has rocked Swiss and Nordic financial markets over the past few weeks, but the economic fallout is likely to remain limited. That said, if the situation in Italy worsens, the Swiss economy looks more vulnerable than the Nordics. …
5th June 2018
April’s rise in private sector production suggests that Sweden’s economy got off to a decent start to Q2. While the construction sector is likely to remain weak, overall we expect the economy to continue performing well, causing price pressures to build …
May’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the Swiss and Norwegian economies continued to perform well in Q2 after decent starts to the year. Sweden’s PMI was yet again quite weak, but other survey indicators have not softened as much and the weakness of the …
1st June 2018
The recent political turmoil in Italy gave the Swiss franc and Nordic & Swiss government bonds a boost at the end of May as investors sought safe havens. Stronger exchange rates weighed on equities in Switzerland and Sweden, but Norway’s stock market …
31st May 2018
The Swiss economy’s decent start to 2018 was partly down to a boost from international sports events but there are also signs of strengthening domestic demand. Nonetheless, with inflation still very weak, we doubt that the SNB will raise interest rates …
The Swedish economy made a strong start to 2018 and the outlook is positive. Healthy growth is set to drive wage growth gradually higher, prompting the Riksbank to raise interest rates at the end of this year. … Swedish GDP (Q1) & Swiss …
30th May 2018
Norway’s labour market recovery looks set to gather pace in the coming months, but wage growth is likely to remain subdued. So we still think that the Norges Bank will wait longer than most expect before beginning to tighten monetary policy. … Norwegian …
25th May 2018
We expect wage growth in Sweden to pick up to around 3% by the end of the year. This should be enough for the Riksbank to start raising interest rates in December. … Will Swedish wage growth ever pick …
23rd May 2018
A “yes” vote in Switzerland’s sovereign money referendum next month would completely overturn the current monetary system. It would constrain the Swiss National Bank’s approach to monetary policy, risks politicising the central bank, and would impair bank …
22nd May 2018
While the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today, its new forecasts show that it expects inflation to remain above target for the next three years. Moreover, we think that the Bank is underestimating the scope for inflation expectations and …
16th May 2018
Norway’s economy did not perform as well in Q1 as the headline growth numbers imply. But we remain optimistic about growth over the rest of the year. Meanwhile, Finland’s economy put in a strong performance in Q1, and the latest activity surveys bode …
15th May 2018
Ahead of Q1 GDP releases over the coming weeks, the official monthly data suggest that growth slowed in Switzerland and the Nordics. Indeed, retail sales in Switzerland increased by 0.6% in Q4 last year, but flat-lined in the first three months of this …
11th May 2018
The Central Bank of Iceland is likely to leave policy unchanged next week. But with inflation set to rise, we expect it to raise interest rates later this year. … Central Bank of Iceland on hold for …
10th May 2018
Easter timing effects distorted April’s inflation data. Looking ahead, inflationary pressure is building in Sweden and, to a lesser extent, in Norway. Inflation is much more subdued in Switzerland. … Sweden, Norway, Switzerland CPI …
9th May 2018
The minutes to the Riksbank’s April meeting were slightly hawkish and suggest that the Bank is on track to raise interest rates this year. We think that markets have gone too far in pushing the krona to a nine-year low against the euro and see the …
8th May 2018
