Filtered by Subscriptions: Latin America Economics Use setting Latin America Economics
Overview – Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks will remain in the spotlight as governments …
12th December 2024
Overview – Tight policy and deteriorating terms of trade will keep growth across Latin America subdued and we think that the region will underperform other parts of the emerging world – as well as consensus expectations – over the next couple of years. …
19th September 2024
Overview – The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to be soft in the coming quarters. This is …
20th June 2024
Overview – Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process has largely run its course and the strength …
26th March 2024
Overview – The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations. In contrast, the Andean economies are set …
7th December 2023
Overview – Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover. Central banks across the region will continue to …
21st September 2023
Overview – The region’s strong start to the year is unlikely to be sustained and we expect growth across Latin America to come in weaker than most expect this year and next. Inflation will continue to fall, but core price pressures are likely to remain …
8th June 2023
Click here to read the full report Overview – GDP growth in Latin America will be among the weakest of any EM region this year and next, and is likely to disappoint consensus expectations. Persistently high inflation has prompted us to push back our …
30th March 2023
Overview – The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy last year and with interest rates well above …
7th December 2022
Overview – Latin America is running into a growing set of headwinds, from the global recession to lower commodity prices to tight policy at home. We expect recessions in Chile and Argentina, and our growth forecasts across most of the region for 2022-23 …
19th October 2022
Overview – High energy and agricultural prices helped to cushion Latin American economies over the first half of the year, but the second half will be much more challenging. As growth slows, fiscal concerns are likely to come back to the fore. And in the …
21st July 2022
Overview – The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms of trade windfall – we expect GDP growth in …
21st April 2022
Overview – The regional recovery will lag further behind others in the emerging world in the coming years. The Omicron-led surge in virus cases presents a risk to growth in the near term, but we suspect that the economic hit will be small. Larger drags …
20th January 2022
Overview – Easing virus outbreaks and the lifting of restrictions boosted recoveries across Latin America in Q3, but growth looks set to slow sharply over the coming quarters. The re-opening boost will soon fade. Fiscal support is, or will be, unwound …
19th October 2021
Overview – Virus outbreaks are easing in much of Latin America which should support activity in the near term. And while vaccination coverage is still weak in most of the region, suggesting there is still a clear risk of further virus waves, economies are …
19th July 2021
Overview – Severe COVID-19 outbreaks across Latin America will put a brake on the region’s economic recovery in Q2. While we’re more optimistic than most that the rollout of vaccines will boost output later this year and in 2022, we still think that Latin …
22nd April 2021
Overview – While vaccines offer Latin America a route out of the crisis, lingering public debt issues will hold back the regional recovery and raise the risk of long-lasting economic scarring. As a result, after a sharp 6.9% drop in 2020, we expect a …
26th January 2021
Overview – The picture has brightened for Latin America as new COVID-19 cases have fallen from their peaks, which should allow governments to ease restrictions and provide a boost to economic recoveries. Even so, with the number of new cases still very …
21st October 2020
Overview – The failure to contain the coronavirus and the small size of fiscal support in some countries mean that Latin America will have the weakest recovery of any region globally. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia are likely to be the worst performers, …
23rd July 2020
Overview – The downturn in Latin America this year will the deepest since reliable records began. The slow and limited economic policy responses in Brazil and Mexico, as well as struggles to bring their coronavirus outbreaks under control, suggest that …
24th April 2020
Overview – Growth in most Latin American economies should strengthen in 2020, but we expect that these recoveries will be slow and fragile. Indeed, the region is likely to be the worst performing part of the emerging world again this year. Inflation will …
21st January 2020
Overview – After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus. And Colombia and Argentina will miss out on …
16th October 2019
Overview – After a terrible start to the year, we expect economic growth in Latin America to pick up over the next 12-18 months. However, recoveries in most cases will be weak. Indeed, our GDP forecasts for many countries, including the region’s two …
12th July 2019
