Filtered by Subscriptions: Japan Economics Use setting Japan Economics
Japan’s seasonally adjusted trade deficit of ¥208 billion in August reported earlier in the week – the first monthly deficit since the early 1980s – has increased concerns about the fallout from the global economic slowdown. But we still think there are …
17th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Output & Spending (Aug) …
30th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan CPI (Aug) …
26th September 2008
We believe that the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for September, due next Wednesday, will show that business conditions have held up rather better than the consensus expects. Indeed, the MoF/Cabinet Office Business Outlook Survey, published …
24th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Better news coming on growth and inflation …
16th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan GDP (Q2 Revised) …
12th September 2008
The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions was disappointing but not disastrous. The detail contained some reassuring news with regard to financial conditions and the labour market. … Tankan shows Japan’s economy slowing, not …
1st September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Output, Spending & CPI (July) …
29th August 2008
Japan has been hit hard by surging food and energy prices, but has avoided the credit crunch and collapsing house prices that have undermined so many economies in the West. Indeed, the Japanese economy is still in relatively good shape compared to similar …
24th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates on hold for remainder of this year …
15th August 2008
The first estimate of Japan’s second quarter GDP will be released, not very auspiciously, on the 13th (next Wednesday). We expect this to show an outright fall of around 0.3% q/q, although a much bigger decline would not be a huge surprise after the …
6th August 2008
The 2.0% m/m decline in Japanese industrial production in June confirms that output has now fallen for two successive quarters. This was at least widely expected: the consensus was for a fall of 1.7% m/m, and any m/m decline would have been sufficient to …
30th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Unemployment and Spending (Jun.) …
29th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan CPI (Jun) …
25th July 2008
The Japanese economy is clearly slowing. Indeed, the official data suggest that consumer spending has fallen sharply and manufacturing may already be in a (short-lived) technical recession. Nonetheless, the flying start to the year means that GDP is still …
24th July 2008
The recovery in the construction sector should prevent an outright fall in Japanese GDP in the second quarter and contribute around 0.7 percentage points to growth in the year as whole. The economy is therefore likely to grow only a little more slowly in …
22nd July 2008
On their own, the Bank of Japan’s revised economic forecasts are still consistent with our view that interest rates could be raised again by the end of the year. Nonetheless, the deteriorating global environment suggests that the long period of unchanged …
15th July 2008
June’s Tankan survey confirms that Japanese business conditions are deteriorating, but not as far as most had feared. The economy is in much better shape than at similar stages in previous downturns. … Tankan shows Japan’s economy slowing, not …
1st July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Output, Spending & CPI (May) …
27th June 2008
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for June, due next Tuesday (1st July), will almost certainly report that business conditions have deteriorated. However, there has been some better news since March. Indeed, despite some gloomy headlines, the …
23rd June 2008
The Bank of Japan predictably left rates on hold today. But with inflation expectations soaring, we believe that rates will be raised again sooner than generally anticipated and perhaps even earlier than the November hike we have already penciled in. …
13th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan likely to follow an ECB hike …
6th June 2008
The relative resilience of capital spending in the first quarter survey from the Ministry of Finance supports other evidence that corporate Japan is in much better shape than at similar stages in previous downturns. We continue to expect the economy to …
4th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Output, Spending & CPI (Apr.) …
30th May 2008
Even allowing for a marked slowdown in the second and third quarters, a strong start to the year means that Japanese GDP is still likely to grow by around 2% in 2008. This would be comfortably above the consensus of 1½% and not much different from the …
24th May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets right no longer to expect the BoJ to cut rates …
19th May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) …
16th May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Industrial Production (Mar) …
30th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan drops tightening bias …
The Bank of Japan left rates on hold today, as universally expected, but the tone of its twice-yearly “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” is more dovish than we at least had anticipated. In particular the changes in the language on interest rates …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … New forecasts to support the case for higher rates …
28th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan CPI (Mar) …
25th April 2008
Japanese consumer confidence remains near five-year lows despite a slight pick-up last month. Nonetheless, spending is holding up well. The single biggest negative for confidence is the perception that inflation is soaring (another reason why the next …
18th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rate cut speculation is on very shaky ground …
2nd April 2008
The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey of business conditions in manufacturing was slightly weaker than the median forecasts, but the risks were always on the downside and the actual results are still something of a relief. The detail included some reassuring …
1st April 2008
Today’s mixed bag of Japanese data contains something for everyone. The fall in industrial production is consistent with talk of recession, but the trend recovery in housebuilding continues and wages are finally picking up. … Japanese output falls, wages …
31st March 2008
Inflation driven solely by food and energy prices is not exactly what the Bank of Japan has been hoping for. Nonetheless, even if Japan is experiencing the “wrong” type of inflation now, the chances that underlying inflation will pick up later in the year …
28th March 2008
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for March, due next Tuesday (1st April), will almost certainly show that business conditions have deteriorated. However, the markets are already prepared for a sharp decline and the outturn may well prove to …
25th March 2008
Most discussion of the outlook for Japan in 2008 assumes that the two alternatives are a sharp slowdown or an outright recession. However, much of the incoming data actually favours a third scenario: another year of decent growth at or above the economy’s …
24th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan GDP (Q4 Revised) …
12th March 2008
The Bank of Japan left rates on hold today, as universally expected. The real interest lies in the dispute over the replacement for Governor Fukui, who retires later this month. We think that the government’s preferred candidate Toshiro Muto will still be …
7th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 2008 is not a rerun of 2001, at least for the BoJ …
3rd March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Industrial Output, Retail Sales (Jan) …
28th February 2008
The surge in GDP at the end of 2007 supports our non-consensus view that, rather than heading for recession, Japan will be the only major economy to grow at least as quickly this year as last. It should also dampen speculation that the next move in …
14th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Next move in Japanese rates is still a hike …
11th February 2008
The latest housing starts data should (but perhaps won’t) quieten talk that Japan is heading into recession. Indeed, we are increasingly confident that a sustained recovery in the construction sector could add half a percentage point or more to GDP growth …
31st January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Industrial Output (Dec) …
30th January 2008
The surprise jump in household spending in December suggests that it is too soon to write-off the Japanese consumer. The labour market is also holding up rather better than many had expected and almost certainly better than the fall in job vacancies …
29th January 2008
Japan is not currently in recession as commonly defined (that is, two quarters of negative growth, or a year-on-year decline). But the level of GDP failed to recover fully in the third quarter of last year from the decline in the second, while domestic …
24th January 2008
The Bank of Japan left rates on hold after its regular meeting today, as was universally expected. The main interest therefore lies in the Bank’s latest assessment of the economy and in Governor Fukui’s tone during his press conference: both were probably …
22nd January 2008
