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The revised “Growth Strategy” published this week contained some positive surprises. In particular, it proposes a revision of the tax and social security system that could result in a sizeable boost to the number of women in paid employment. However, the …
30th June 2014
The rebound in retail sales and the renewed decline in the unemployment rate in May confirm that the slump following the consumption tax hike was short-lived. … Consumer Prices (national: May; Tokyo: Jun.), Unemployment & Retail Sales …
27th June 2014
While the revised “Growth Strategy” appears to contain some promising elements, it is unlikely to lift Japan’s potential growth rate significantly. In particular, the document does not adequately address the contraction of the workforce, which is the main …
24th June 2014
June's flash manufacturing PMI confirms that the economy has stabilised after the slump caused by the consumption tax hike. … Flash Manufacturing PMI …
23rd June 2014
April’s consumption tax hike has made it more difficult to assess the strength of consumer price pressures. But different approaches that make allowance for the one-off impact of the tax increase lead to the same conclusion: underlying inflationary …
The trade deficit remained broadly unchanged in May, and should narrow slightly further in coming months. … External trade (May) …
18th June 2014
Pension provision is a significant drain on Japan's fiscal resources in part because the returns generated by the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) have fallen short of those earned by counterparts overseas in recent years. Matching the returns …
16th June 2014
Even though the BoJ left policy unchanged today and provided no indication that additional stimulus will be forthcoming any time soon, we think that it is premature to write off further easing. … Rumours of QQE's end have been greatly …
13th June 2014
The inevitable plunge in machinery orders in April following March's surge does not alter our view that investment spending will continue to recover. … Machinery Orders …
12th June 2014
Today's Business Outlook Survey points to a sharp drop in output this quarter, but firms still expect demand to recover in the second half of the year. … Business Outlook Survey …
11th June 2014
The share of government bonds held by the BoJ has risen sharply since the start of QQE. Contrary to some suggestions, there are no compelling reasons why the central bank’s holdings can’t increase much further. … Monetary Indicators Monitor (May …
10th June 2014
The Bank of Japan will likely leave policy settings unchanged at the meeting that concludes on Friday (13 th June). We continue to expect more easing in October as it becomes clear that inflation excluding the effects of the consumption tax hike will fall …
The improvements in consumer confidence and the Economy Watchers Survey last month add to the evidence that the slump after the consumption tax hike is unlikely to last long. … Economy Watchers Survey & Consumer Confidence …
9th June 2014
The second estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the recovery in business investment continued last quarter. Meanwhile, the current account returned to surplus after the sales tax hike as imports plunged. … GDP (Q1 Revised) & Current Account …
The two preliminary estimates of GDP are among the most widely followed indicators of Japan’s economy. The good news is that neither of these early estimates displays major biases relative to the final outcome, and the magnitude of revisions to the …
Unsurprisingly, consumer spending plunged in April after the consumption tax hike, and industrial production weakened as well. But machinery orders have climbed to a fresh high, which suggests that companies expect demand to recover in coming months. …
4th June 2014
The ongoing fall in basic pay shows that the increases agreed upon in the spring wage negotiations have so far not filtered through to employees not covered by these talks. … Labour Cash Earnings …
3rd June 2014
The Ministry of Finance's survey on corporate finances confirmed that the recovery in business investment continued last quarter. … Capital Expenditure …
2nd June 2014
Japan is widely known to have the highest gross government debt level relative to the size of its economy in the developed world but some commentators have argued that the net debt picture is much less of a concern. Accounting for the government’s large …
Neither the surge in inflation nor the slowdown in industrial production in April came as a surprise, and firms expect output to stabilise in coming months while inflation should moderate. … Consumer Prices (national: Apr.; Tokyo: May), Unemployment & …
30th May 2014
Unsurprisingly, retail sales fell sharply in April following the consumption tax hike, but we remain confident that the recovery in household consumption will resume in the second half of the year. … Retail Sales …
29th May 2014
The rebound in small business confidence in May adds to the evidence that the economy should recover quickly from any weakness after the consumption tax hike. … Small Business Confidence …
27th May 2014
The second version of the government’s “Growth Strategy”, which is due next month, should include a pledge to cut corporate taxes, and perhaps some measures to cut red tape in Special Economic Zones. These measures would be equity-friendly and provide a …
26th May 2014
Japan’s economic recovery should be able to weather last month’s consumption tax hike, helped by improvements in investment and in net exports. But the bigger picture is that years of fiscal tightening and painful structural reforms lie ahead. In the …
23rd May 2014
The inaugural flash manufacturing PMI confirmed that the weakness caused by the consumption tax hike should be short-lived. … Flash Manufacturing PMI …
22nd May 2014
While the share of government bonds held by the BoJ has risen sharply since the start of QQE, there are no compelling reasons why the central bank's holdings can’t increase much further. … For how much longer can the BoJ buy government …
The optimistic tone of recent BoJ communication suggests that the chances of additional stimulus being announced as soon as July, as many had expected, have shrunk substantially. We however continue to believe that more easing will be introduced later in …
21st May 2014
While the plunge in the trade shortfall in April may have been too strong to last, the deficit should remain low as domestic demand has weakened after the sales tax hike. … External trade …
The Bank of Japan will most likely leave policy settings unchanged at the upcoming May meeting, and Board members’ sanguine views on the economy suggest that the chances of additional near-term easing have shrunk substantially. Nonetheless, we continue to …
19th May 2014
The surge in machinery orders in March suggests that the recovery in business investment remains on track. … Machinery Orders (Mar.) …
If Japan’s past experience is any guide, the next few weeks will deliver a run of downbeat data reflecting a plunge in domestic demand after the consumption tax hike. In fact, many indicators have already started slowing. Retail and vehicle sales are …
A key aim of the BoJ’s QQE programme is to lower real interest rates in a bid to encourage firms and households to borrow and spend more and thereby eliminate the spare capacity that underpins deflation. Unfortunately, credit growth has already started to …
16th May 2014
Despite a small rise in purchasing intentions, consumer confidence remained at very weak levels last month. … Consumer Confidence …
15th May 2014
Raising female participation in the labour force to the same rate as that for men could boost Japan’s GDP by as much as 13%. However, no advanced economy has achieved parity on this basis, and a more realistic target would be a 3% gain (spread over many …
Japan's economy expanded rapidly ahead of the sales tax hike. While growth is set to slump in Q2, we remain confident that the recovery will resume in the second half of the year. … GDP (Q1 …
The latest Senior Loan Officer survey showed that banks expect household loan demand to weaken sharply in the second quarter. Borrowing is highly likely to slow now that the consumption tax hike has taken place but that is not the only factor at play. …
14th May 2014
Today's Economy Watchers Survey confirmed that the Japanese economy weakened abruptly in the wake of the sales tax hike, but also suggested that the weakness is unlikely to last. … Economy Watchers Survey …
12th May 2014
The current account showed a record shortfall in March, but we expect a return to surplus in coming months. … Current Account (Mar.) …
The planned shift from corporate to consumption taxes should boost overall economic growth in coming years. However, the benefits from corporate tax cuts alone may be smaller than hoped for, as many other features of Japan’s tax system require reform, …
For now, Japan's economy is following the script of the 1997 consumption tax hike. Consumer spending surged in a last-minute shopping spree before the tax was raised, and inflation soared in the capital region in April. While car sales weakened only …
7th May 2014
Female employment has risen sharply since Prime Minister Abe returned to office. However, most of the newly-created jobs are part-time or temporary, offering lower pay and fewer opportunities for training than permanent, full-time positions. A variety of …
2nd May 2014
While the unemployment rate remained unchanged in March, the ongoing rise in job vacancies points to further declines in the jobless rate in coming months. … Unemployment & Household Spending …
It came as no surprise that the BoJ left policy unchanged today and sounded confident about the prospects of hitting its inflation target. However, not all Board members are convinced that the 2% inflation target will be met as early as planned, and we …
30th April 2014
The plunge in small business confidence in April shows that the mood among Japan's small firms has soured sharply after the consumption tax hike, and points to falling industrial output in coming months. … Small Business Confidence …
Wage growth picked up last month, but base pay continues to decline and incomes are not expanding fast enough to offset high inflation. While incomes may get some support from the spring wage negotiations, the effect is unlikely to be large. … Labour Cash …
Industrial production did not reverse February's drop in March, and the manufacturing PMI suggests that output will fall sharply following the consumption tax hike. … Industrial Production (Mar.) & Manufacturing PMI …
The Bank of Japan will almost certainly maintain its current policy settings at the conclusion of the second of this month’s two Board meetings on Wednesday. However, there should still be plenty of interest in the Board’s updated forecasts for growth and …
28th April 2014
The surge in retail sales ahead of the consumption tax hike needs to be seen together with a likely plunge this month. However, we remain confident that the recovery in consumer spending will resume in the second half of the year. … Retail Sales …
Japan’s exports have been broadly flat in recent years, reflecting a mix of cyclical headwinds (such as weak global demand) and structural pressures (notably the shift in production capacity abroad). The poor demographic outlook suggests that Japanese …
While the consumption tax hike at the beginning of April lifted inflation in the capital region close to 3%, price pressure should abate in coming months as import prices have moderated. … Consumer Prices (national: Mar.; Tokyo: …
25th April 2014
