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Tankan points to persistent strength in inflation Bank of Japan Governor Ueda today provided the strongest hint yet that the Bank is keen to hike interest rates further in the second half of the year. He noted that the probability of attaining a …
5th April 2024
Once the Bank of Japan starts to reduce its huge holdings of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in earnest, we think that commercial banks will once again become major holders of JGBs. Insurance firms may lift their holdings a touch further as well, but we …
2nd April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Tankan points to sluggish recovery The slight fall in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that a rapid recovery from the likely slump in Q1 …
1st April 2024
Q1 GDP to drop sharply as industrial output slumps With industrial output falling yet again in February following the plunge in January, GDP will fall sharply in the first quarter. The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in February was weaker than …
29th March 2024
BoJ won’t provide much help in supporting yen With the yen hitting a 34-year low of just under 152 against the dollar on Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance’s Masato Kanda noted that the government will respond resolutely to “excessive” yen weakness and …
28th March 2024
We continue to think that policymakers in China and Japan will do enough to keep their currencies from weakening much further, but the risk of a break lower in one, or both, is increasing. Push-back from the authorities in China and Japan has stabilised …
27th March 2024
While the Bank of Japan’s JGB holdings have started to shrink and will continue to do so now that Yield Curve Control is over, we think that the normalisation of the Bank’s balance sheet could take up to a decade. While shrinking central bank demand for …
26th March 2024
Run-off in bond holdings will accelerate The Bank of Japan didn’t disappoint at this week’s meeting as the Bank ended negative interest rates, Yield Curve Control and its ETF purchases. Even so, 10-year JGB yields declined and the yen weakened to as low …
22nd March 2024
Inflation will return to BoJ’s target by year-end The renewed jump in headline inflation in February leaves the door open for another rate hike by the Bank of Japan, but with underlying inflation moderating the case for tighter policy is weakening. The …
21st March 2024
In the wake of this week’s FOMC and BoJ policy announcements we are revising our forecast for the Japanese yen. While we still expect the Japanese yen to rebound over the course of 2024, we now project it to reach 140 by the end of the year and 135 by …
Q1 GDP decline should be followed by vigorous recovery The rise in the composite PMI to a seven-month high suggests that any fall in Q1 GDP should be followed by a strong recovery. According to today’s flash estimate, the composite PMI jumped from 50.6 to …
We are resending this publication because the previous one didn't contain any text. Better news from net trade points to smaller fall in Q1 GDP The trade balance didn’t fall nearly as much as most had anticipated in February and net trade will only …
The Bank of Japan today called time on more than a decade of ultra-loose policy settings, but we don’t think it will lift its policy rate any further over the coming months. A Reuters survey conducted at the end of last week still showed that a majority …
19th March 2024
BoJ won’t embark on tightening cycle as inflation momentum waning The Bank of Japan ended ultra-loose monetary policy today but we don’t think it will raise its policy rate any further. A majority of forecasters polled by Reuters last week were still …
BoJ set to unwind negative rates next week A preliminary tally published by the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (RENGO) today showed that pay hikes in this year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) reached 5.28%, up sharply from 3.6% last year and the …
15th March 2024
We’ll be discussing the outlook for inflation, monetary policy and the implications of higher Japanese rates for domestic and global financial markets in a 20-minute online briefing at 8am GMT/4pm SGT on 19th March . (Register here .) Shunto results in …
13th March 2024
Wobbly output won’t prevent BoJ from ending negative interest rates While the small rise in Q4 GDP should be followed by a renewed contraction this quarter, we doubt this will prevent the BoJ from ending negative interest rates by the of next month. The …
11th March 2024
The recession that probably wasn’t Developments over the past week have increased the chances that the Bank of Japan will end negative rates in March rather than our current forecast of April. For a start, following several weeks of discouraging data on …
8th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Regular wage growth will receive a boost in Q2 While the jump in overall wage growth in January was entirely driven by volatile bonus payments, regular wage growth will receive a …
6th March 2024
Overview – The economy isn’t in recession but GDP growth will slow towards trend this year. With a virtuous cycle between wages and prices now in full swing, we expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates at its April meeting. However, price …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Above 2% inflation will allow BoJ to end negative rates in April Inflation jumped to well above 2% in Tokyo in February and will remain around that level for a few months. …
4th March 2024
The decline in listed firms’ profit margins over the last couple of years despite the tailwind from a weaker yen suggests that improved corporate governance isn’t changing corporate behaviour. While timely data point to a rebound in profitability, the …
Third contraction in GDP now likely We doubt that the slump in industrial output in January will prevent the Bank of Japan from ending negative rates over the coming months, but the recent string of disappointing data reinforces our view that this will …
1st March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Huge fall in industrial production suggests continued weakness in activity The plunge in industrial production January suggests that GDP will fall yet again this quarter, which …
29th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation will jump above 2% in February Inflation at the national level held up better in January than the Tokyo CPI would have suggested, which brings a March rate hike back …
26th February 2024
We estimate that in the near-term, the drag on Japan’s exports resulting from of a universal 10% US import tariff could be nearly offset by Japan gaining market share at the expense of China in response to a much higher US tariff on Chinese imports. …
Import volumes weakest since 2020 We’ve been arguing that Japan is not in recession even though GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters. However, February’s soft flash PMI and the large fall in imports in January hardly instil confidence in the …
23rd February 2024
The Bank of Japan has succeeded in creating tight labour market conditions through ultra-loose monetary policy and is now reaping the benefits in the form of stronger wage growth. The upshot is that we expect the Bank to end negative interest rates at its …
22nd February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The recovery in activity this quarter will be modest February’s PMI readings saw a drop almost across the board with the composite PMI, manufacturing PMI, services PMI and new …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Export growth will still drive GDP growth this year The trade balance turned positive in January, mainly a result of a large fall in imports. Net exports contributed roughly half …
21st February 2024
GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters but we don’t think the economy is in recession and should return to growth this year. While the gap between nominal wages and inflation is closing fast, the wage-price virtuous cycle will receive a boost when …
20th February 2024
Japan’s industrial production data don’t fully take into account the influence of falling prices and have systematically underestimated the strength of manufacturing output. The upshot is that rather than losing importance, Japan’s industrial sector is …
19th February 2024
Japan’s economy is not in recession The preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP showed the second consecutive contraction in output, but we doubt it will scupper the BoJ’s plans to end negative interest rates. For a start, the quality of Japan’s preliminary GDP …
16th February 2024
The rise in US bond yields has put renewed pressure on the yen, but we think further downside is limited. We still expect Treasury yields to resume their downward trend and for the yen to benefit most among G10 currencies vis-à-vis the dollar from this …
15th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Continued contraction in GDP won’t prevent ending of negative interest rates While the second consecutive contraction in GDP in Q4 would suggest that Japan’s economy is now in …
External demand strong, domestic demand weak The Q4 GDP data due next week are likely to show that the economy staged a partial rebound after the sharp contraction in Q3. But the details will probably confirm that domestic demand remained weak. Indeed, we …
8th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further regular wage increases incoming While winter bonus payments increments disappointed in December, regular wage growth accelerated substantially. Looking ahead, we think …
5th February 2024
Kishida pushing for wage increases PM Kishida pledged on Tuesday that the government will “take all possible steps” to raise real incomes this year. While he mentioned no new measures, his government recently rolled out tax breaks for firms that offer …
2nd February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. GDP growth will be positive in Q4 Though retail sales was very weak in December, strong industrial production data to close out the quarter reinforces our view that Q4 GDP growth …
31st January 2024
Tokyo inflation won’t remain below 2% for long At its meeting on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan sounded increasingly confident that it will be able to meet its 2% inflation target on a sustained basis. And the minutes of the Bank’s December meeting released …
26th January 2024
Plunge in inflation casts doubt on ending of ultra-loose monetary policy The plunge in inflation to well below 2% in Tokyo last month was broad-based, casting doubt on the Bank of Japan’s willingness to end negative interest rates. Headline inflation …
25th January 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Positive signs for this quarter The composite PMI rose for the second consecutive month in January, driven by rises in both manufacturing and services components. And with the …
24th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Export growth will be sluggish this year The trade deficit widened in December as import values rose more strongly than export values. But the weakness in net goods trade will be …
The Bank of Japan sounds increasingly confident that it will be able to achieve its inflation target on a sustained basis. With Mr Ueda at the post-BOJ-meeting press conference again emphasising the importance of the spring wage negotiations, we think the …
23rd January 2024
Policy normalisation is in sight Although the Bank of Japan stood pat at its meeting today, we’re sticking with our view that policymakers will soon call time on negative rates. The Bank’s decision to leave its policy rate unchanged at -0.1% was correctly …
Note: Join us on our upcoming Asia Drop-in on 25th January. We’re discussing China’s missing stimulus, the Asian monetary policy outlook and much more. Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. Inflationary pressures moderating Inflation fell to an …
19th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation will rebound early this year Inflation fell again in December, driven by declines in both fresh food and energy inflation. However, the bigger picture is that inflation …
18th January 2024
We expect GDP growth to slow to a crawl this year, weighed down by weak consumption growth and sluggish export growth. While the virtuous cycle between prices and wages has shown signs of a slowdown in recent months, it will soon receive a boost when …
17th January 2024
While overall inflation has moderated, services inflation has accelerated Bank will wait for upcoming spring wage negotiations before adjusting policy We expect a rate hike to 0.1% in March, with Yield Curve Control ending by mid-year The Bank of …
16th January 2024
