Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Economics Use setting Europe Economics
The inconclusive result of the Spanish general election is set to trigger a period of political uncertainty which could slow the country’s economic recovery. But it also represents another blow to the euro-zone’s policy of onerous austerity. … Spanish …
21st December 2015
The stronger-than-expected performance of the euro-zone economy in 2015 and the additional policy support recently provided by the ECB might appear to provide the conditions for a further improvement in the currency union’s outlook in 2016. But two of the …
18th December 2015
Employment in the euro-zone is expanding at a healthy pace and survey data point to a positive outlook. But this hides a very mixed story amongst different countries, and the overall picture is stillone of plenty of labour market slack and very little …
17th December 2015
The likely advent of a coalition government after this Sunday’s Spanish general election looks unlikely to bring the country’s robust economic recovery to a halt. But a period of political instability could certainly take some of the steam out of the …
December’s small fall in the headline German Ifo index left it still at a high level. But the sharper decline in the current conditions component supported evidence from recent hard data that growth may have reached a peak. … German Ifo Survey …
The Norges Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, but with growth slowing and inflation set to fall, interest rate cuts look highly likely next year, starting at the next policy meeting in March. … Norges Bank signals rate cuts next …
There are reasons to think that the advent of tighter monetary policy in the US will not have a materially negative impact on the currency union. But there is no room for euro-zone policymakers to be complacent. … Will the Fed’s lift-off cause a euro-zone …
16th December 2015
October’s euro-zone goods trade data revealed a further slowdown in export growth, adding to the evidence that the boost from the weaker euro is fading. We suspect that the trade surplus will narrow next year, dragging on the region’s economic recovery. … …
December’s small fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI left it still pointing to steady but modest growth in the region. But the Paris attacks have taken a toll on France, leaving the economy close to stagnation again. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
December’s solid rise in German ZEW investor expectations suggests that the economy is faring pretty well, but it still points to a slight slowdown in growth. … German ZEW …
15th December 2015
The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be loosened further in the euro-zone, the Riksbank will be …
October’s rise in euro-zone industrial production provides an early indication that the sector will have had a solid Q4, adding to evidence that the region’s recovery may have regained some pace at the end of 2015. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
14th December 2015
Contrary to hopes that a weaker euro and accommodative monetary policy would be particularly beneficial to Germany’s supposedly super-competitive export sector, the latest data have brought signs that growth may have passed its peak. Both exports and …
11th December 2015
Ireland’s impressive recovery continued in Q3. And with the conditions in place for continued rapid growth, it is set to remain the euro-zone’s fastest-growing economy. … Ireland GDP …
10th December 2015
November’s consumer prices data showed a continued divergence between the subdued rates of inflation in Sweden and Denmark and stronger price pressures in Norway, reflecting the recent depreciation of its currency. … Swedish, Danish & Norwegian Consumer …
The renewed fall in France’s headline inflation rate in November highlights the absence of price pressures in the region’s second-largest economy. The weakness of the economy, underscored by the details of October’s industrial production data, suggests …
With the ECB’s cautious action last week reducing upward pressure on the franc against the euro, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was able to leave policy on hold as expected today. But we still think that the ECB will expand its QE programme next year and …
The recent further fall in oil prices and imminent commencement of monetary tightening in the US are unlikely to compensate for the ECB’s disappointingly timid action at last week’s policy meeting. … Will the Fed & oil prices bail out the …
9th December 2015
Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to keep its key interest rates unchanged was merely a reflection of the improvement in the short-term inflation outlook and a tighter policy stance will still be required next year. … Iceland holds rates but more …
The euro-zone has proved relatively resilient in the face of global headwinds, but the region still has to contend with significant domestic problems. And with fiscal policy unlikely to provide a big boost to growth, the onus will remain firmly on the ECB …
8th December 2015
The second estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 revealed that the slowdown in growth was driven by weaker net exports. As the boost to consumer spending growth from lower oil prices fades, we think that GDP growth will slow further next year. … Euro-zone GDP …
The solid growth in Iceland’s GDP in Q3 confirmed that the economy is performing strongly and has put the 2008 collapse of the banking sector behind it. With domestic demand very healthy, the central bank is unlikely to be deterred from hiking rates. … …
The unprecedented success of France’s far-right Front National (FN) in Sunday’s regional elections is a symbolic victory for the party’s protectionist and anti-immigration policies. While the initial economic and policy effects are likely to be limited, …
7th December 2015
October’s unexpectedly-small rise in German industrial production was another signthat GDP growth in the euro-zone’s largest economy has passed its peak. … German & Spanish Industrial Production …
The ECB’s failure to live up to its own hype at December’s Governing Council meeting looks likely to have at least some negative consequences, both on the economic outlook via the market response and on its own ability to influence markets verbally in the …
4th December 2015
The European Central Bank’s failure to meet the expectations for further policy loosening fuelled by its own dovish signals has dented both its reputation for communication and, more importantly, the outlook for the euro-zone economy. … ECB fails to live …
3rd December 2015
October’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that the consumer recovery might be losing some steam. But the final PMIs for November suggest that the overall economic recovery might actually have gained a little pace. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & …
After the further slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in the third quarter, more timely survey indicators such as the composite PMI have offered tentative evidence of a renewed acceleration in Q4. Nonetheless, growth prospects remain sluggish at best, while …
2nd December 2015
An expansion of the QE programme tomorrow would probably require some changes to ECB rules. But we do not think that this will be enough to deter the Bank from implementing more stimulus. … Current QE rules won’t stop the …
November’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone consumer prices figures gave a final green light for the ECB to announce much-needed additional monetary policy stimulus at tomorrow’s Governing Council meeting. … Euro-zone Flash CPI …
The latest fiscal data provided further evidence that the peripheral countries are improving their budgetary positions. But with some of these countries planning to loosen the fiscal reins next year, there is a clear risk of slippage and a further rise in …
1st December 2015
October’s euro-zone unemployment data confirmed that the region’s steady labour market recovery has continued. But the bigger picture is that unemployment remains too high to boost wage growth and inflation. … Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Final Mfg PMI …
The Swiss GDP release revealed that growth stalled in Q3 and November’s manufacturing PMI points to worse to come. This raises the likelihood that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will increase its policy support in the coming months. … Swiss GDP …
The Swiss GDP release revealed that growth stalled in Q3 and November’s manufacturing PMI points to worse to come. This raises the likelihood that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will increase its policy support in the coming months. … Swiss GDP (Q3 …
November’s small rise in German HICP inflation appears to have reflected energy effects. With the core rate still very subdued, there is nothing here to put the ECB off increasing its policy support this week and perhaps beyond. … German Flash CPI …
30th November 2015
Sweden’s economy posted yet another decent expansion in Q3, which was encouragingly broad-based. But Danish GDP contracted due to weak net exports, suggesting that the euro-zone’s summer slowdown may have taken its toll. … Swedish & Danish GDP …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3 15) …
Euro-zone activity surveys for November, released last week, suggest that the economic recovery regained some pace in Q4. But the rates of growth that they imply would still only reduce the spare capacity in the economy slowly. As a result, the outlook …
27th November 2015
November’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators released earlier this week that after Q3’s slowdown the eurozone’s economic recovery may have regained some pace in Q4. … EC Business & Consumer Survey …
The question is not whether the ECB’s Governing Council will loosen monetary policy at its meeting on December 3rd, but rather whether it will do so decisively enough to meet the very strong expectations stoked up by its own dovish signals. Anything less …
26th November 2015
The latest comments from Chairman Thomas Jordan suggest that the Swiss National Bank will act decisively to limit franc strength, including through further direct intervention in FX markets. But we doubt that it will be able to prevent some appreciation …
Euro-zone monetary data showed some signs of improvement in October, but continue to point to low inflation and slow growth, strengthening the case for the ECB to increase its stimulus next week. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
The prospect of a historically large divergence between US and euro-zone monetary policy looks set to push the euro below parity versus the US dollar for the first time since late 2002. … Historic policy split to push euro below …
25th November 2015
Greece has cleared another hurdle with the disbursement of its latest bailout tranche and funds to recapitalise its banks. But until its debt burden is properly addressed, its crisis is not over. … Greek outlook improves but crisis still not …
24th November 2015
