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Finland’s competitiveness pact probably won’t boost employment by as much as the Government hopes. But it is still a positive move that should help to lower labour costs and boost output. … Will Finland’s competitiveness pact boost the …
17th June 2016
The immediate risks surrounding Greece have receded once again, with the likely completion of its first review today set to trigger payment of its next loan tranche early next week. But our analysis of the Eurogroup’s debt relief proposals implies …
16th June 2016
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates on hold as expected today, but it will continue to intervene in FX markets if needed, as is likely in the run-up to the UK referendum. An actual Brexit would most probably prompt the SNB to cut interest …
The UK is Sweden’s fourth largest export market, but the direct trade impact of a Brexit would probably be small. A Brexit could have a bigger impact on Sweden through its effect on the krona . And further down the line, there could be calls for …
15th June 2016
While the euro-zone trade surplus jumped to a record high in April, any boost from trade to GDP growth in Q2 is likely to be offset by weakness in other parts of the economy. … Euro-zone Trade …
The UK is Sweden’s fourth largest export market, but the direct trade impact of a Brexit would probably be small. A Brexit could have a bigger impact on Sweden through its effect on the krona. And further down the line, there could be calls for Sweden …
Ireland is the most exposed euro-zone country to any economic fallout from a Brexit . But just as we think that the economic costs of a Brexit for the UK are often overstated, we think that the Irish economy’s medium-term prospects would still be …
14th June 2016
Despite April’s strong rise, industrial production is still lower than it was in January. With industrial surveys pointing to subdued growth ahead, it seems unlikely that the euro-zone industrial sector will match Q1’s strength in Q2. … Euro-zone …
Sweden’s inflation rate fell by more than expected in May. With underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take further policy action. … Swedish Consumer Prices …
Sweden’s inflation rate fell by more than expected in May. With underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take further policy action. … Swedish Consumer Prices (May …
There are hopes that Euro 2016 will provide a boost to the French economy and perhaps lift national sentiment. But any gains in football-related expenditure will be at least partly offset by falls elsewhere. And while a successful football performance …
10th June 2016
April’s increases in French and Italian industrial production support the message from Germany that the sector had a decent month. But growth still looks set to slow in Q2 and over the rest of the year, keeping the pressure on policymakers to provide …
The prospect of ECB corporate bond purchases, which begin today, has pushed corporate bond spreads down and prompted a pick-up in issuance. However, there are several reasons to think that spreads might rise after bond purchases begin. And the increase …
8th June 2016
Iceland’s second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP was down to the volatility of trade. The big picture is that domestic demand growth picked up and the outlook is positive. … Should European markets be more worried about …
7th June 2016
Iceland’s second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP was down to the volatility of trade. The big picture is that domestic demand growth picked up and the outlook is positive. … Iceland GDP …
Today’s final estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the economy got off to a strong start to the year, driven by household spending. But the economy is unlikely to expand as quickly throughout the rest of this year. … Euro-zone GDP Breakdown …
April’s rise in German industrial production only partially reversed the previous month’s fall and suggests that the strong growth of industrial and overall economic activity in Q1 will not be repeated in the second quarter. … German Industrial …
Iceland’s second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP was down to the volatility of trade. The big picture is that domestic demand growth picked up and the outlook is positive. … Iceland GDP (Q1 …
The recent rise in oil prices will provide some short-term support to the Norwegian economy, but the associated strengthening of the krone will hinder the economy’s rebalancing away from oil. We expect the Norges Bank to cut interest rates further …
6th June 2016
The recent rise in oil prices will provide some short-term support to the Norwegian economy, but the associated strengthening of the krone will hinder the economy’s rebalancing away from oil. We expect the Norges Bank to cut interest rates further this …
The expansion of the ECB’s QE programme may have contributed to the recent increase in euro-zone equity prices and economic sentiment. But purchases of government bonds have increased by more in the region’s core than in the periphery, suggesting that …
3rd June 2016
April’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that strong consumer spending growth in Q1 is unlikely to be repeated in Q2, and thus that GDP growth will slow. Indeed, May’s final Composite PMI also points to a slowdown in growth. … Euro-zone Retail Sales …
The recent increase in Target2 imbalances does not suggest that the euro-zone is set for another crisis on the scale of 2011/12. However, it does suggest that countries in the core might be experiencing more of the benefits of QE. If anything, this is the …
Euro-zone consumer price inflation remained in negative territory in May for the second consecutive month and the eighth month overall in the last 18. Fading negative energy effects mean that inflation will turn positive in June and could rise close to …
2nd June 2016
The ECB is in wait and see mode while it assesses the effects of its latest policy measures, but President Draghi left the door wide open to further policy action. We continue to believe that the central bank’s work is not yet done . … ECB holds fire …
There was some good news last month for public finances in the euro-zone’s periphery as Moody’s upgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt and the EC decided to be lenient with Portugal and Spain after both missed their 2015 deficit targets, and Italy, by granting …
We disagree with recent suggestions that negative central bank policy rates encourage households to increase their savings, thereby reducing demand and weighing on inflation. In fact, the opposite seems to be true in the euro-zone. We suspect that …
1st June 2016
A Brexit and its after-effects could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to undertake further unconventional policy action, including measures to support the euro-zone’s financial sector, FX intervention and even some form of helicopter money. … How …
Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. … Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet …
In order to cut Spanish unemployment significantly, the parties that gain power after voters return to the polls in June will need to focus on retraining the workforce. But even if schemes were implemented quickly, it would take many years for the …
31st May 2016
The European Commission’s measure of economic sentiment in Italy suggests that the recovery might have gained some pace in Q2. However, April’s increase in unemployment and other, more reliable, surveys suggest that growth is more likely to have slowed. …
The latest figures on euro-zone inflation and unemployment maintained the picture of subdued price pressures across the region. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment …
April’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow. While the full effects of the ECB’s expanded stimulus measures will not yet have been felt, we doubt that they will boost money and lending growth significantly. … …
The pick-up in Danish GDP growth in Q1 is welcome news after weakness in the second half of 2015. But sluggish euro-zone growth will also weigh on Danish prospects, and survey measures paint a weak picture of the near-term outlook. … Danish GDP …
The pick-up in Danish GDP growth in Q1 is welcome news after weakness in the second half of 2015. But sluggish euro-zone growth will also weigh on Danish prospects, and survey measures paint a weak picture of the near-term outlook. … Danish GDP (Q1 …
The German economy got off to a strong start to the year. The healthy 0.7% expansion of GDP in Q1 was driven primarily by a pick-up in investment but also increases in public and private consumption. This was encouraging, given criticisms of tight fiscal …
27th May 2016
The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain a dovish tone at its forthcoming policy meeting on 2nd June, forecasting below target inflation and holding open the door to further policy loosening later in the year. However, it is also likely to …
26th May 2016
The likely disbursement of the next tranche of Greece’s third bailout may have reduced the risk of a summer flare-up of the country’s debt crisis. But with the creditors’ pledges on debt relief extremely vague and the fiscal targets still unrealistic, …
25th May 2016
May’s rise in the German Ifo suggests that the economy has continued to grow at pretty healthy rates, but the fast quarterly pace seen in Q1 will not be sustained. … German Ifo Survey …
With the recovery in the euro-zone economy set to slow and the peripheral countries still facing a Herculean task to address their fiscal problems, there is a danger that Europe’s debt crisis will reignite in the coming months. … Is Europe heading back …
24th May 2016
The election of pro-immigration and -EU Alexander Van der Bellen as Austria’s next president keeps the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) out of office for now. But the FPÖ remain the top party in general election polling and the close result …
The second German GDP release for Q1 confirmed that stronger domestic spending drove a sharp pick-up in overall activity. But May’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment supports our view that growth will slow as the year goes on. … German ZEW Survey …
The euro-zone Composite PMI edged down in May despite rises in Germany and France, suggesting that growth in the rest of the euro-zone lost momentum. And with new export orders falling to a 16-month low, the survey implies that weak global growth will …
23rd May 2016
The rise in Swedish inflation will prove short-lived if inflation expectations stay below 2%. In order to boost such expectations, the Riksbank must ensure that the krona does not appreciate strongly. … Swedish inflation outlook dependent on krona …
21st May 2016
On the face of it, last week’s decisions by the European Commission to allow Italy greater flexibility in its budget, and not to fine Spain and Portugal for their large deficits, suggest that it has gone soft on the EU’s fiscal rules. But austerity has …
20th May 2016
Despite the recent falls in consumer confidence, there are a number of reasons to be positive about the outlook for household spending in the Netherlands over the coming years. Nevertheless, worries about pension funding and general elections due in early …
18th May 2016
This week’s French protests over a watered down labour market law highlight just how hard it will be to reform the economy. This suggests that France’s economic weakness will be prolonged , particularly if the European Commission responds with more …
17th May 2016
While the euro-zone trade surplus widened in March, this reflected a drop in the value of imports rather than export strength. Subdued global demand growth and the recent appreciation of the euro point to further weakness in exports to come. … Euro-zone …
