Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Economics Use setting Europe Economics
With global demand recovering pretty strongly, for at least a few quarters, the ongoing rise of the euro is unlikely to halt the external sector revival in its tracks. Nonetheless, we expect exporters in some euro-zone economies to fare worse than others. …
21st October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone on track to exit recession in Q3 …
19th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Trade Balance (Aug.) …
16th October 2009
The latest Spanish housing market data suggest that residential property prices are no longer falling as sharply as they were at the turn of the year. Nonetheless, we think the housing market downturn is far from over. Indeed, we expect further price …
15th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone CPI (Sep. Final) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) …
14th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German ZEW (Oct.) …
13th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are the ECB’s euro worries well founded? …
12th October 2009
The ECB’s cautious tone in the press conference following its decision to leave interest rates on hold for the sixth consecutive month supports our view that any future tightening of policy conditions in the region remains a long way off. … ECB still some …
8th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Industrial Production (Aug.) …
The recent news from the euro-zone provides further signs that the economy emerged from recession in Q3. The data from the external sector have been especially encouraging. July’s sharp rise in exports meant that the trade surplus rose to a five-year high …
6th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further fiscal support in Germany and France …
5th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.) …
1st October 2009
The ECB will leave interest rates at 1.0% at its October policy meeting and is unlikely to signal any significant change in its supportive policy stance for the future. The Bank will probably argue (contrary to our opinion) that its second allotment of …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Sep.) …
30th September 2009
France is likely to give up its recent status as the euro-zones star performer in the next two years, losing ground mainly to Germany. But with household finances and the banking sector in a fairly healthy state, the economy should remain pretty close to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Sep.) …
29th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Consumer Prices (1st Est. Sep.) …
28th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Service sector to lead the economy out of recession …
Today’s broad money data revealed that there are still few signs that the ECB’s provision of unlimited liquidity to banks is boosting broad money and credit growth. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
25th September 2009
Q2’s Irish GDP figures provide some hope that the economy is not about to go into full-blown meltdown. But a sustained period of positive growth remains a distant prospect. … Irish recovery remains a distant …
24th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Ifo Survey (Sep.) …
With Norway now on the path to recovery, the Norges Bank has begun to prepare the ground for future interest rate hikes. But while the Bank will probably tighten later this year, we do not expect rates to rise as rapidly as the markets currently envisage. …
23rd September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) & French Household Spending (Aug.) …
The outcome of Sunday’s German election may have some bearing on the pace of fiscal consolidation. But, whichever coalition prevails, fears of early and particularly aggressive policy tightening seem overdone. Accordingly, we still think that the outlook …
22nd September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Deflation risk is greater than the ECB claims …
21st September 2009
After leaving the target for three-month interest rates at just 0.25% today, the SNB struck a slightly less pessimistic tone than it had previously. But while the Bank has revised up its inflation forecast a little, a modest economic recovery will ensure …
17th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Trade Balance (Jul.) …
The release of further details of the Irish Government’s “bad bank” plans does little to change our view that bank lending will continue to contract for a sustained period. Ultimately, further measures will probably be required to get the banking sector …
After leaving the target for three-month interest rates at just 0.25% today, the SNB struck a slightly less pessimistic tone than it had previously. But while the Bank has revised up its inflation forecast alittle, a modest economic recovery will ensure …
On the face of it, the surge in euro-zone new car sales over recent months seems like good news for the region’s beleaguered vehicle producers. Nonetheless, we doubt that this will prompt much of a pick-up in production in the near term. This supports our …
16th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German ZEW (Sep.) & Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) …
15th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) …
14th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Industrial divergences set to persist …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Italian GDP (Q2), French Industrial Prod’n & Trade (Jul.) …
10th September 2009
The clear improvement in indicators of domestic activity and an upward revision to our forecast for the US have prompted us to raise our projection for euro-zone GDP growth next year. The recovery is still unlikely to be as sharp as that in the US over …
9th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Industrial Production & Trade (Jul.) …
8th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Deflation dangers linger …
7th September 2009
After leaving interest rates unchanged at 1.0%, the ECB once again underlined its reluctance to follow other central banks in implementing bolder unconventional measures. Nonetheless, any tightening of conventional monetary policy seems a long way off. … …
3rd September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMI (Aug.) …
The decision by the Swedish Riksbank to keep interest rates on hold at 0.25% and signal that rates may remain unchanged for around another year supports our view that markets may have got ahead of themselves in forecasting rate hikes by early 2010. … …
Q2’s modest 0.1% quarterly contraction in euro-zone economic activity was an encouraging sign that the recession is nearing its end. Admittedly, the improvement compared to Q1’s 2.5% drop was partly related to a boost from public spending, which will not …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone GDP (Q2) & PPI (Jul.) …
2nd September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swiss GDP (Q2) …
1st September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Unemployment (Jul.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German consumer upturn set to fade …
31st August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Aug.) …
28th August 2009
The ECB will leave interest rates on hold at 1.0% at its September policy meeting and is very unlikely to announce any new unconventional policy measures. The Bank is likely to treat recent signs of improvement in the economy with caution, supporting our …
