Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Economics Use setting Europe Economics
The ‘bad bank’ plan approved by the German Cabinet today goes a bit further towards solving banks’ problems than measures existing elsewhere in the euro-zone. But while the plan should improve banks’ liquidity, it does little to reduce uncertainty related …
13th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) …
While the latest OECD leading indicators brought further signs of the ‘green shoots’ of recovery in some euro-zone economies, Germany continues to suffer from the weakness in global trade. Until that changes, the euro-zone recovery will be muted. … The …
12th May 2009
Although euro-zone retail sales have dropped lately, other types of spending appear to have held up relatively well. Sadly, it seems unlikely that this trend lasted into the first quarter and we expect total consumer spending to have contracted sharply. …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … France & Italy Industrial Production (Mar.) …
11th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Has the ECB reached its limit? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.) …
8th May 2009
The ECB continues to lag behind. Although it delivered a 25bp interest rate cut today, the unconventional policy measures also announced look very timid compared to those already adopted by other central banks. … ECB disappoints on unconventional …
7th May 2009
The old adage goes that if you ask ten economists their views on something you get ten different answers. But there is one topic where nearly all economists agreed some years back: the prognosis for Europe’s sick man, Italy, is terminal. However, without …
April’s business surveys provided some tentative signs that the euro-zone economy may start to contract at a less rapid pace in Q2. But any improvement will be from a very low base. Indeed, the latest news suggests that the economy may have contracted by …
6th May 2009
Today’s further cut in interest rates by the Norges Bank has brought rates close to their likely trough. But with the risk of deflation remaining pretty small and the economy still on track for one of the mildest recessions in Europe, the Bank is unlikely …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final Composite PMI (Apr.) …
The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggested that constraints on the supply of credit in the US have eased in the second quarter. (See our US Economics Update “Fed’s survey suggests credit crunch has eased”, 4th May.) Is the credit crunch easing …
5th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Producer Prices (Mar.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone inflation has further to sink …
4th May 2009
The ECB is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1% this month, where they should remain for some time. But after last month’s hints that further unconventional policies could be announced at this meeting, the key interest will be in …
30th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Unemployment (Mar.) …
The severe impact on Europe’s exporters of the outright collapse in global demand and tradeflows will cause most economies in the region to contract very sharply in 2009. Indeed, most will now see even deeper downturns than that likely in the US, with the …
29th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swiss KOF Barometer (Apr.) …
Initial estimates suggest that the Spanish economy may not have contracted quite as rapidly as some of the other major euro-zone economies in Q1. However, the housing market slump and the rapidly deteriorating labour market suggest that the Spanish …
The latest euro-zone money data suggest that the ECB’s liquidity provisions are doing nothing to boost broad money growth in the region. This will increase the pressure on the ECB to announce bold unconventional policy measures to encourage banks to lend …
Hopes that Europe might weather the global economic storm relatively well have been shattered as the region has followed the US into an extremely severe recession. Sadly, a reliance on exports will almost certainly mean that the euro-zone does lag behind, …
28th April 2009
The Financial Times recently reported that, according to internal analysis prepared for the Fed’s last policy meeting, the ‘ideal’ interest rate in the US should be minus 5%. The analysis was based on the so-called Taylor rule, which is often used as a …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German CPI (1st Est. Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone economy to contract by 5% this year …
27th April 2009
The Spanish unemployment rate rose at breakneck speed in Q1, suggesting that household spending is set to continue to plunge this year. Accordingly, we still think that the consensus forecast of a 2.9% fall in GDP in 2009 looks too optimistic. … Mounting …
24th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Ifo Survey (Apr.) & French Consumer Spending (Mar.) …
With the euro-zone set to enter its worst recession in the post-war period, concerns about the prospect of a member state defaulting on its debt have rocketed and even prompted speculation of a euro-zone break-up. But while there is no doubting that the …
23rd April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) …
The euro-zone 2008 budget deficit figures show that the health of the public finances in parts of the region has deteriorated at an alarming rate. Nonetheless, we think that the state of the public finances in the region is unlikely to worsen to the point …
22nd April 2009
The German Government’s plans for further measures to support the banking sector might sound broadly encouraging, particularly as banks there have so far not suffered as much as those elsewhere. But it is disappointing that no firm details will be …
21st April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German ZEW Survey (Apr.) …
The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to commit to a prolonged period of low interest rates to help kick start the economy is clearly a step in the right direction, but this alone may not be enough. We think that the Bank will soon be forced to follow the lead …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The trade loop - Emerging Europe hits the euro-zone …
20th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Trade Balance (Feb.) …
17th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) …
16th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lower loan rates might provide some respite... eventually …
13th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German & French Trade (Feb.) …
8th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Feb.) …
6th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next from the ECB? …
Although the ECB’s 25bp interest rate cut was smaller than expected, the decision appears to have reflected a desire to maintain the corridor between the official rate and deposit rates rather than a reluctance to further stimulate the economy. What’s …
2nd April 2009
The downturn in the euro-zone labour market is gathering pace. Another very sharp rise in unemployment in February took the total increase so far to over 2 million. With 1.6 million of that pick-up occurring in just the past six months, conditions are …
1st April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Unemployment & German Retail Sales (Feb.) …
February’s dreadful Spanish retail sales figures have dashed any hopes that the recent sharp falls in inflation and mortgage payments would lead household spending to stabilise at the start of the year. With conditions likely to get worse before they get …
31st March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Mar.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar.) …
30th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone economy to contract by 4% this year …
