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The SNB’s pledge to go on purchasing large quantities of corporate bonds while providing generous liquidity to the banking sector and intervening ‘decisively’ in currency markets has left it among the central banks acting most aggressively to support the …
18th June 2009
Norway’s relatively mild downturn should ensure that the latest 25bp interest rate reduction by the Norges Bank is probably the last in the current cycle. But we still think that the Bank will not tighten monetary policy as quickly as its own interest …
17th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Trade Balance (Apr.) …
The announcement by the Spanish Government that it plans to set up a fund to provide capital to the ailing banking sector is certainly good news. But on its own, it will not be enough to prevent the Spanish economy from lagging behind the rest of the …
16th June 2009
In its latest Financial Stability Review, published yesterday afternoon, the ECB has taken a less gloomy view on the potential losses that euro-zone banks still have to face relative to a previous IMF estimate published in April. Still, even under this …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German ZEW Survey (Jun.) & EZ Final CPI (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Employment (Q1) …
15th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone to emerge last from recession …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) …
12th June 2009
Today’s announcement that the Swedish Riksbank is to borrow €3bn from the ECB confirms that, while the green shoots of recovery may be starting to emerge in parts of the global economy, the Baltic crisis remains a major weight on the Swedish economy’s …
10th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Italian GDP (Q1), French & Italian Industrial Production (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Industrial Production & Trade (Apr.) …
9th June 2009
Today we have revised our key economic forecasts. At the same time, we have updated our projections for currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table at the bottom of page 2. Included for the first time …
8th June 2009
The recent upward revision to our forecasts for the US and UK economies has prompted only a modest increase in our euro-zone forecast given less convincing signs of a recovery so far and a disappointing policy response in the region. However, we still …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro’s strength may not last …
7th June 2009
By leaving interest rates on hold and simply revealing the details of previously announced modest covered bond purchases, the ECB did the least that might have been expected today. Accordingly, the Bank continues to lag far behind others in its support …
4th June 2009
The collapse in euro-zone exports in Q1 – and indeed in Q4 last year – was greater than would be expected from the decline in global demand. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the drying up of trade finance was an additional factor. If the tentative signs …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) …
Concerns about the health of the Swedish banking system have increased further in response to a growing threat of an exchange rate devaluation in the Baltics. While the impact of such a devaluation on the Swedish banking system may be exaggerated, rising …
3rd June 2009
The breakdown of Q1’s euro-zone GDP figures brought little comfort. The record 2.5% quarterly drop was driven mainly by falls in investment and inventories, while a sharp drop in exports was largely offset by a fall in imports. It is broadly encouraging …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & Producer Prices (Apr.) …
The perceived rigidity of euro-zone labour markets will certainly not prevent a brief period of negative inflation in the region. What’s more, with wage growth probably set to drop towards zero in the coming quarters, there is a risk of a more sustained …
2nd June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Unemployment (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swiss GDP (Q1) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone a whisker away from deflation …
31st May 2009
April’s data revealed that there was no let-up in the downward trend in both broad money and lending growth in the euro-zone. This further supports our view that the ECB’s injections of short-term liquidity into the banking system have not been …
29th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swedish GDP (Q1) …
Euro-zone interest rates will almost certainly be on hold in June, but the focus has shifted to any developments regarding unconventional policies. The Bank is likely to confirm its intention to start purchasing covered bonds with more or less immediate …
28th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone EC Survey (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German CPI (1st Est. May) …
27th May 2009
Our analysis suggests that the inventory rundown underway in the euro-zone manufacturing sector has further to go and, crucially, that the pace of destocking is likely to be even greater in Q2 than in Q1. Accordingly, all we can hope for in the short term …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … French & Italian Consumer Conf. (May), Spanish Retail Sales (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German GDP (Q1) …
26th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Light at the end of the tunnel for the external sector …
25th May 2009
The financial crisis triggered a synchronised shock that temporarily interrupted most economic activities. However, at some point households and businesses will start making some of the decisions presumably postponed because of heightened uncertainty, …
22nd May 2009
The latest Irish inflation figures revealed that core inflation tumbled deeper into negative territory in April, suggesting that the chance of a prolonged bout of negative inflation is growing. This should provide policymakers in the euro-zone as a whole …
21st May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) …
Surveys of German consumer sentiment have diverged markedly lately, with the EC survey pointin to very sharp falls in spending but the GfK version broadly consistent with stagnation. We think that the less pessimistic GfK survey, which is focused on …
20th May 2009
The Nordic authorities’ handling of the early 1990s banking crises has since been hailed as being close to best practice. Nonetheless, given that a global economic upturn was a key factor behind the subsequent Nordic economic recovery, merely following …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German ZEW Survey (May) …
19th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Norwegian GDP (Q1) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Trade Balance (Mar.) …
18th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lower loan rates: too little, too slow …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone GDP (Q1) …
15th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spanish GDP (Q1) …
14th May 2009
Fiscal austerity is a thing of the past. However, in its just-released Regional Economic Outlook for Europe the IMF stressed that, without a credible and sustainable strategy to ensure fiscal sustainability, ballooning budget deficits will increase …
13th May 2009
