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The Swiss National Bank’s assurance that it will intervene to prevent the franc from appreciating too much further is encouraging. But intervention now might not be as successful as in the recent past and a further appreciation of the franc remains a key …
11th January 2010
For some time, we have been fairly optimistic about the prospects for the euro-zone in 2010. Nonetheless, the outlook remains highly uncertain and there are several risks which could derail the recovery were they to materialise. … New Year challenges for …
November’s renewed increase in German industrial production is a welcome sign that the recovery there is back on track. But with unemployment still rising in the euro-zone as a whole, it could be some time before consumers join in. … German Industrial …
8th January 2010
After outlining the start of its exit strategy last month, we doubt that the ECB will announce any further changes at the forthcoming meeting. The Bank might increase the interest rate on its threemonth loans in the not too distant future or return to …
7th January 2010
December’s rise in the EC measure of euro-zone economic sentiment was fairly encouraging. Unfortunately, though, November’s fall in retail sales confirmed that the recovery has yet to reach the household sector. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales …
Greeces troubles have highlighted the need for decisive fiscal consolidation in at least parts of the euro-zone. This need not be as aggressive as in the UK or US, but could still knock over 0.5% off annual euro-zone GDP growth from 2011. And with …
The Greek Government’s pledge to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2012 appears to be encouraging news for markets. But the scale of the adjustment required suggests that the Government will struggle to meet its targets without prompting a huge …
6th January 2010
Euro-zone producer price inflation continued to inch up in November. But it remains deep in negative territory, suggesting that pipeline inflationary pressures remain very weak and that core CPI inflation will continue to slow this year. … Euro-zone …
December’s rise in euro-zone inflation reflects temporary energy effects. With economic activity still at very low levels, deflation remains a bigger risk for the region than high inflation in the medium term. … Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment …
5th January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … French Consumer Spending (Nov) & Italian Retail Sales (Oct.) …
23rd December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … When will the labour market start to recover? …
21st December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Ifo Survey (Dec.) & Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) …
18th December 2009
With the Irish economy expanding again and the Government apparently willing to take the tough actions required to get the public finances on an even keel, Ireland looks set to avoid coming under the same kind of market pressures as those recently endured …
17th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) …
16th December 2009
Recent developments in Austria underline how the worst has not yet passed for some of Europe’s banks. While the larger euro-zone countries are less vulnerable, we expect lending to fall in some of the region’s smaller countries and most of Emerging Europe …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German ZEW (Dec.) & Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q3) …
15th December 2009
While the euro-zone is benefiting from the improvement in global trade conditions, the big issue is whether this will translate into any lasting pick-up in the domestic economy. There are reasons for hope, but the strong euro and premature withdrawal of …
14th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) & Employment (Q3) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the troubles in Greece spread? …
By announcing an end to its corporate bond purchases, the Swiss National Bank has become the latest to start phasing out its unconventional policy support. But its downbeat forecasts for economic activity suggest that it will not raise official interest …
10th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Italian GDP (Q3), Italian & French Industrial Prod’n (Oct.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German & French Trade (Oct.) …
9th December 2009
Finland has been hit particularly hard by the global economic downturn, faring almost as badly as Ireland. Nonetheless, the foundations are in place for a reasonably strong recovery, suggesting that Finland could be one of the euro-zone’s strongest …
8th December 2009
The dramatic market reaction to the downgrade of Greece’s credit rating from A- to BBB+ by Fitch today partly reflected concerns that Greek banks may in the future be unable to use Government bonds as collateral to obtain funds from the ECB. Whether or …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Industrial Production (Oct.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Low inflation to keep ECB rates on hold …
7th December 2009
There have recently been some encouraging signs that Irelands painful adjustment may be coming to an end. Nonetheless, considerable obstacles remain. We expect the economy to continue to contract in both 2010 and 2011. … How long will Ireland’s hangover …
3rd December 2009
The ECB confirmed today that it is phasing out its emergency lending to banks, and perhaps a bit more quickly than had been expected. But the Bank is still downbeat about the economic outlook and we think that any tightening of conventional monetary …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & Retail Sales (Oct.) …
Q3’s GDP release confirmed that the euro-zone economy finally exited recession last quarter. But the expansion was largely down to a slower pace of destocking than in Q2. Unfortunately, despite the recent increase in consumer confidence there was no sign …
2nd December 2009
Concerns about German banks have increased, with the Bundesbank estimating that further hefty losses are to come and the Government warning of a worsening credit crunch. But, for the time being at least, the situation does not look worse than that …
1st December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swiss GDP (Q3) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) …
30th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A cautionary note on Germany …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) …
27th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swedish GDP (Q3) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Consumer Prices (1st Est. Nov.) …
26th November 2009
The ECB will probably confirm at the forthcoming press conference that December’s provision of 12- month bank loans will be the last. Together with possible hints about phasing out 6-month lending next year, this might add to fears that the Bank will …
October’s euro-zone money supply figures provided few signs that the ECB’s unlimited provisions of liquidity are prompting any pick-up in broad money and bank lending. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
On the face of it, the latest news from the Italian household sector has been pretty disappointing and suggests that consumer spending may have fallen fairly sharply in Q3. Nonetheless, we think that the conditions are in place for a rise in household …
25th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Norwegian GDP (Q3) …
24th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Ifo Survey (Nov.) & GDP (Q3) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) …
23rd November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Falling profit margins pose a threat to the recovery …
The recent news on the Greek public finances has been terrible and suggests that the Government faces a huge task to get its fiscal house in order. Eventually, we expect pressure from the European Commission and the markets to prompt a considerable fiscal …
20th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spanish GDP (Q3) …
18th November 2009
The recent surge in Swedish and Norwegian property prices has fuelled concerns that both economies’ central banks may be forced to ratchet up interest rates in order to prevent housing market bubbles from developing. But we doubt that house prices will …
17th November 2009
