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The breakdown of Q3 GDP and more timely news on retail sales and the final PMIs further underlined the weakness of the euro-zone’s recovery. … Euro-zone GDP (Q3 13), Final PMIs (Nov.13) & Retail Sales …
4th December 2013
Last week’s rating changes by S&P, which stripped the Netherlands of its triple A status and moved Spain from negative watch to stable, appeared to re-affirm the recent message from the economic data that the imbalances between the core and peripheral …
2nd December 2013
The latest news on euro-zone inflation and unemployment will do little to relieve the pressure on the ECB to take more action to support the fragile economic recovery and head off a potentially damaging bout of deflation. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & …
29th November 2013
Sweden’s much weaker than anticipated rise in GDP in Q3 increases the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its monetary policy stance. … Swedish & Danish GDP …
Sweden’s much weaker than anticipated rise in GDP in Q3 increases the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its monetary policy stance. … Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3 …
Last month's cut in interest rates has not lifted the pressure on the ECB to provide more support for the fragile economic recovery. Accordingly, President Draghi may make a more concerted effort to talk down the euro at the post-meeting press conference …
28th November 2013
Portugal is unlikely to follow in Ireland’s footsteps and achieve a “clean exit” from its existing rescue package. We think that the most likely scenario is that Portugal seeks a second full-blown bail-out. … A second bail-out still looms for …
November’s rise in the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a comforting sign given the recent falls in other indicators, like the composite PMI, but we still expect the recovery to remain weak. … Euro-zone EC Survey, German Unemp. …
There remains little sign that a pick-up in euro-zone bank lending to help support the fragile economic recovery is taking place. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirm that the economy is continuing to withstand the effects of the strong currency. But growth remains steady rather than spectacular. … Swiss GDP …
Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirm that the economy is continuing to withstand the effects of the strong currency. But growth remains steady rather than spectacular. … Swiss GDP (Q3 …
While Greece and Ireland remain ahead of their fiscal consolidation targets, Italy appears set to record a larger than planned deficit this year. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
27th November 2013
September’s euro-zone trade data and November’s PMI surveys, both released last week, gave mixed signals on how the euro-zone’s external sector is developing. Whilst the survey data suggested that exports could pick up soon, the hard data painted a less …
25th November 2013
November’s German Ifo index echoed the message of the ZEW survey and PMI that the economy might have regained a bit of momentum in the fourth quarter. But growth looks set to be steady rather than spectacular. … German Ifo Survey …
22nd November 2013
November’s fall in euro-zone consumer confidence adds to signs that the eurozone recovery may have lost some momentum in Q4. … Euro-zone Flash Consumer Confidence …
21st November 2013
November’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that the region’s anaemic recovery may be losing more steam. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
November’s German ZEW survey provided some evidence that the euro-zone’s biggest economy has continued to expand in the fourth quarter, but at a relatively moderate pace. … German ZEW Survey …
19th November 2013
Q3’s rebound in mainland Norwegian GDP growth concealed mounting evidence that the country’s boom is fading. … Norwegian GDP (Q3) …
Q3’s rebound in mainland Norwegian GDP growth concealed mounting evidence that the country’s boom is fading. … Norwegian GDP (Q3 …
The breakdown of France’s Q3 drop in GDP, released last week, underlined the pressure on firms. Without more ambitious structural reforms, weak investment and employment growth mean that French GDP will continue to fall short of official and consensus …
18th November 2013
The latest euro-zone trade data indicate that although the trade surplus continues to widen, weak global demand and the strong euro are holding back exports. … Euro-zone Trade …
Q3's meagre rise in euro-zone GDP clearly was disappointing, but there were some signs that growth within the region is converging. The slowdown was largely down to weaker growth in Germany and France. By contrast, GDP growth in Italy and Spain was …
Dutch investment has expanded strongly in recent quarters. But, while firms are in much better financial health than households, they won’t drive a decent recovery in the wider economy. … Dutch firms will not power a decent …
14th November 2013
Q3’s GDP figures suggest that Greece is not yet benefitting from the modest economic revival in the euro-zone as a whole and we continue to think that the economic forecasts on which its bail-out plans are based remain too optimistic. … Greek recession …
The near-stagnation of the euro-zone economy in the third quarter underlines the fragility of the recovery and the growing dangers of a damaging bout of deflation in the region. … Euro-zone GDP …
September's fall in euro-zone industrial production indicates that the sector will have dragged on GDP growth in Q3 as a whole. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep …
13th November 2013
Denmark is finally dragging itself out of its long slump. Households have started to deleverage, exporters have become more competitive and banks are now stronger. But given that these adjustments have further to run, the Danish economy will still lag its …
12th November 2013
Last week’s cut in ECB interest rates has helped to relieve some of the near-term upward pressure on the euro. But the central bank will have to work harder to stop the strong currency from snuffing out the fragile recovery and pushing the region towards …
The downgrade of France’s sovereign credit rating last week highlighted the country’s fiscal problems. Although a French debt crisis is still a fairly distant prospect, France’s weak fiscal position will weigh on its recovery and undermine its …
11th November 2013
Spain still faces major economic challenges, but we think that prospects there are brighter than in Italy where the medium-term outlook for the public finances remains pretty dire. Accordingly, we would not be surprised if Spanish government bond yields …
The ECB’s unexpected interest rate cut last week was certainly a pleasant surprise and suggests that it is not writing off the potential threat of deflation. But there was little in the press conference to suggest that this marks the start of a more …
While the ECB’s largely unexpected decision to cut interest rates was welcome, the central bank cannot address the deep-seated problems still facing the currency union. … Rate cut welcome, but not a …
7th November 2013
September’s German industrial production figures suggest that the country’s supposed growth engine may have slowed somewhat, if not stalled. … German Industrial Production …
The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to a four year low of 0.7% has raised the prospect of a bout of outright deflation in the euro-zone economy. While cost pressures are not as weak as they were when the currency union last saw falling prices in 2009, …
6th November 2013
October’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI to 51.9 suggests that the recovery continued at the start of Q4, but at a sluggish pace. Furthermore, September’s retail sales data highlight that consumers cannot be relied upon to drive growth. … Euro-zone …
Norway’s long housing boom is losing steam. Although a collapse in prices is unlikely, the slowdown in the housing market suggests that the economy will weaken more than the consensus expects. … Norway's housing boom is …
5th November 2013
Norway’s long housing boom is losing steam. Although a collapse in prices is unlikely, the slowdown in the housing market suggests that the economy will weaken more than the consensus expects. … Norway’s housing boom is …
There are some good reasons why the ECB should be worried about the prospect of a bout of consumer price deflation in the euro-zone. But it is not clear that it has the firepower to prevent it. … Should the ECB fear …
4th November 2013
The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey (BLS), published last week, suggested that credit constraints might soon start to ease in the euro-zone. But this improvement is only tentative; the fragility of the region’s banks will weigh on the economy for some time yet. …
With the economic recovery still pretty fragile, the euro climbing higher and inflation falling sharply, President Draghi may adopt a slightly softer stance at the ECB’s interest rate press conference on 7th November. But there appears to be little chance …
31st October 2013
The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment figures provide another clear signal that the recovery is still very fragile and will increase pressure on the ECB to take further action to support the economy. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment …
Contrary to expectations, French President François Hollande may fulfil his promise to reduce unemployment by the end of the year. But he will do so by relying on temporary initiatives rather than tackling the considerable structural problems of the …
October’s rise in the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) suggests that the region’s modest recovery continued in the early stages of Q4. … Euro-zone EC Survey, German Unemp. (Oct.) & Spa. GDP …
30th October 2013
Belgian GDP rose for the second straight quarter in Q3, suggesting that euro-zone GDP recorded another moderate expansion too. … Belgian GDP …
Although Cyprus has already begun to gradually relax its capital controls, restrictions on deposits leaving the country remain in place. With a fragile banking sector and an economy deep in recession, it seems unlikely that Cyprus will be able to lift …
On balance, the smaller peripheral economies in the euro-zone are still making inroads into their budget deficits, but there are some signs that Italy and Spain are faring a bit less well. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
29th October 2013
Although the Bank of Spain’s Q3 GDP estimate suggested that Spain may have exited its two-year recession, the fall in the euro-zone composite PMI in October highlighted that the region’s economic recovery remains fragile. For now at least, then, we see …
28th October 2013
September’s euro-zone monetary data perhaps offered tentative signs that the fall in bank lending is easing, but a decent pick-up in credit remains a distant prospect. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
25th October 2013
The fall in German Ifo business sentiment in October provided another timely reminder that the euro-zone recovery remains fragile. … German Ifo Survey (Oct …
Despite falling in October, the euro-zone PMIs suggest that the region’s modest expansion continued at the start of Q4. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
24th October 2013
