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While the Ukraine crisis won’t have major effects on the European economy, it is another warning to the policymakers not to rely on a very positive global environment to sustain the region’s recovery. … Does the Ukraine crisis threaten the European …
4th March 2014
Despite last week's stronger than expected euro-zone inflation figures, the combination of still very weak price pressures, the strong euro and recent falls in liquidity in the banking sector still presents a compelling case for further ECB policy action …
3rd March 2014
February’s euro-zone consumer prices figures don’t change the picture of very weak price pressures in the currency union and hence don’t rule out further policy action from the ECB next week. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment …
28th February 2014
The surge in Swedish GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy remains one of the region’s strongest performers. But while it has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecast we still think that growth will be weaker than the consensus view this year. … Swedish …
The surge in Swedish GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy remains one of the region’s strongest performers. But while it has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecast we still think that growth will be weaker than the consensus view this year. … Swedish & …
While the euro-zone activity data has continued to show some improvement, the combination of very low inflation, the strong euro and falling liquidity in the banking sector has maintained pressure on the ECB to provide further policy support. While not …
27th February 2014
The small rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in February provided another indication that the economic recovery has built up a little momentum at the start of the year. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) & Spanish GDP …
Given hopes that the ECB’s Asset Quality Review had temporarily depressed lending last year, January’s weak euro-zone monetary data will keep pressure on the ECB to loosen policy further. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
While Q4’s Swiss GDP figures were a bit disappointing, they do not suggest that the economy is succumbing to the strength of the exchange rate. … Swiss GDP (Q4 …
The smaller euro-zone peripheral economies made good fiscal progress last year, but the adjustment process is by no means over yet. Italy and Spain fared less well. As a result, this year, they may need to make up any slippage in 2013. … Euro-zone …
26th February 2014
Denmark’s mortgage-bond market, the third largest covered bond market in the world, looks set to avoid a painful regulatory overhaul that might have weighed on the country’s recovery. … Danish mortgage market set to weather regulatory …
A surge in support for euro-sceptic parties at the European Parliament elections in May will probably have little direct impact on the institution itself. But rising support for populist parties may further weaken national politicians’ appetite for …
24th February 2014
The rise in February’s German Ifo survey suggests that the economic recovery has continued to pick up some momentum in the early months of 2014. But growth in the euro-zone’s main engine looks set to be solid rather than spectacular. … German Ifo Survey …
The euro-zone’s recovery appears to have continued at the beginning of 2014. But the recovery is struggling to gather enough pace to banish the deflationary menace facing the region. … Slow euro-zone recovery leaves deflation threat …
February’s euro-zone PMIs suggest that the region’s recovery is struggling to gather pace. This will keep pressure on the ECB to loosen policy further. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
20th February 2014
The Netherlands was the fastest growing euro-zone economy in Q4. But while the country is on the road to recovery, growth will slow in the coming quarters. … Dutch recovery on track, but pace will …
19th February 2014
The euro-zone’s proposed banking union will help to strengthen the region’s financial system. But the benefits will be slow to feed into the real economy. And the current framework for banking union does not resolve the euro-zone’s underlying structural …
18th February 2014
February’s ZEW survey gave mixed signals, suggesting that whilst the economic situation is improving slowly, investors are losing some optimism about the future. … German ZEW Survey …
Q4’s euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the currency union’s economic situation improved marginally at the end of last year, but the ECB will need to take further action to ensure that the recovery is sustained. Despite a raft of fairly upbeat data and …
17th February 2014
The modest growth of the euro-zone economy in Q4 will have done little to address the deep-seated problems of the peripheral countries or to head off the dangers of deflation across the currency union. … Euro-zone GDP …
14th February 2014
The Swedish Riksbank reiterated at its meeting today that it does not expect to raise interest rates until early next year. But we think that the expected start date of its tightening cycle will eventually be pushed back. … Rates hikes in Sweden remain …
13th February 2014
The Swedish Riksbank reiterated at its meeting today that it does not expect to raise interest rates until early next year. But we think that the expected start date of its tightening cycle will eventually be pushed back. … Rates hikes in Sweden remain a …
December’s weak industrial production figures highlight that the euro-zone’s industrial recovery remains fragile. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
12th February 2014
Although the Icelandic central bank left its policy rate unchanged today, the Sedlabanki gave a strong indication that it is likely to tighten policy later this year. … Sedlabanki holds, but will hike later this …
Although the Norwegian krone will fare better in 2014 than it did last year, the currency may well depreciate a little further. … Slide in Norwegian krone may not be over …
10th February 2014
The euro-zone’s difficult monetary conditions will add to the disinflationary pressures in the region. Admittedly, Mario Draghi suggested last week that temporary factors such as the AQR were depressing bank lending, while firms were increasingly tapping …
December’s German industrial production figures came as a bit of a blow to hopes that the euro-zone’s main growth engine was picking up speed. … German Industrial Production …
7th February 2014
While the European Central Bank (ECB) disappointed hopes of more policy support today, the growing risk of deflation and dovish signals from President Mario Draghi suggest that further action will arrive very soon. We retain our forecast of a small cut in …
6th February 2014
Sweden is less at risk from a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation than the euro-zone, despite the fact that CPI inflation is currently lower in the former. … Should Sweden be worried about …
5th February 2014
Despite the recent bout of disappointing global economic news and financial market turbulence, economic indicators like the PMI suggest that the euro-zone’s fragile recovery gained a bit of a momentum around the turn of the year. And December’s sharp drop …
Whilst December’s retail sales data suggested that consumers showed little festive cheer, January’s final composite PMI survey indicated that the wider euro-zone recovery may have gained a little momentum at the start of 2014. … Euro-zone Retail Sales …
While a bout of deflation in the euro-zone back in 2009 proved to be short-lived and harmless, there are reasons why a new episode of falling prices would be longer-lasting and more damaging. … Deflation dangers are greater this …
4th February 2014
The news that Germany is drawing up plans for another support package for Greece, suggests that policymakers are gradually resolving some of the problems surrounding Greece’s current bail-out deal. But any new package is likely to leave Greece with an …
3rd February 2014
We doubt that the recent financial market sell-off in parts of the emerging world will be a catalyst for a renewed intensification of the euro-zone crisis. But the events underline the potential external threats to the euro-zone’s fragile recovery as …
The latest euro-zone unemployment and inflation data maintained the pressure on the ECB to do more to ward off deflation risks, perhaps as soon as next week. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment …
31st January 2014
With the strong euro maintaining the risk of deflation in the euro-zone and inter-bank interest rates edging higher, the ECB’s Governing Council will need to follow up President Mario Draghi’s dovish words with further policy action very soon. Another …
30th January 2014
Although the risk of a “Grexit” has diminished substantially, we think that the dire financial position of Greek households has the potential to trigger a renewed intensification of the country’s crisis. … Dire household finances pose two risks for …
The rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in January echoed the message of other closely watched euro-zone survey indicators that the economic recovery is building momentum, but slowly. … Euro-zone EC Survey & ECB Bank …
Today’s Q4 GDP figures indicate that the weak Belgian recovery is gradually taking hold, but we expect growth to remain unspectacular for a while yet. … Belgian GDP …
29th January 2014
Euro-zone bank lending remained very weak in December, suggesting that the banking sector is still a significant drag on the region’s recovery. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
The latest fiscal data suggest that, last year, the smaller peripheral economies made significantly better fiscal progress than Italy or Spain. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
Hints from Mario Draghi that the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider purchasing bank loans do not reduce the growing risks of deflation in the euro-zone. … ECB loan buying plan won't dampen deflation …
28th January 2014
January’s Ifo survey supported the message from other recent evidence that the German economy has started the new year with a reasonable amount of momentum. … German Ifo Survey …
27th January 2014
Data released over the last week point to a brightening outlook for euro-zone households, not least because the region’s housing market downturn may be easing. But given the state of households’ finances and employment prospects, any rebound in house …
The Spanish economy may have ended 2013 on a relatively high note. But we would be wary of concluding that all the pieces are now in place for a solid and sustained economic recovery this year. … Is Spain set for a household spending-led …
23rd January 2014
