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December’s Ifo survey was consistent with other evidence pointing to steady but unspectacular growth in the German economy. … German Ifo Survey …
18th December 2013
Iceland’s controversial plan for more debt relief for indebted households is, despite some risks, a positive for the economy. But the scope for similar measures in the euro-zone’s periphery is limited. … Iceland's debt write-down plan will support the …
17th December 2013
Although the euro-zone has tentatively emerged from its long and damaging recession, we remain sceptical that it will expand at a fast enough pace to reduce unemployment significantly, lower the periphery’s huge debt burdens and bring the euro-zone crisis …
December’s German ZEW survey suggested that financial market participants have ended the year in a reasonably upbeat mood towards the economic outlook. … German ZEW Survey …
The Swedish Riksbank's decision to reduce interest rates is unlikely to have a major positive impact on the economy. We expect GDP to continue to grow at a lacklustre pace, suggesting that the Riksbank may push back the expected start date of its …
The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is unlikely to have a major positive impact on the economy. We expect GDP to continue to grow at a lacklustre pace, suggesting that the Riksbank may push back the expected start date of its …
Iceland’s controversial plan for more debt relief for indebted households is, despite some risks, a positive for the economy. But the scope for similar measures in the euro-zone’s periphery is limited. … Iceland’s debt write-down plan will support the …
The latest euro-zone trade data highlight that the external sector remains too weak to singlehandedly power an economic recovery. … Euro-zone Trade …
16th December 2013
December’s small rise in the euro-zone composite PMI came as a bit of a relief after the previous two monthly falls. But the index still suggests that GDP growth in the region is likely to have been weak in Q4. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
Last week, euro-zone policy-makers moved closer to an agreement on the Single Resolution Mechanism responsible for handling failed banks. But while this is certainly a positive step, it will leave the region with an under-capitalised and fragmented …
Q3’s employment data add to evidence that the euro-zone’s labour market is finally stabilising. But a burst of strong job growth is probably a distant prospect. … Euro-zone Employment …
13th December 2013
The situation in Greece has improved dramatically over the past year. But while the second bail-out has ensured that the public finances are in a better position than they were, Greece’s public debt still appears unsustainably high. This suggests that the …
12th December 2013
Slovenia’s new bank recapitalisation plans will help the country avoid a bail-out. But its stress test results might have worrying implications for the euro-zone’s own upcoming evaluation of banks. … Slovenian stress tests boost efforts to avoid …
October’s sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production suggests that industry will make another negative contribution to GDP growth in the fourth quarter. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
The ECB cannot rely on the commencement of asset purchase tapering by the US Federal Reserve to bring the euro down from its potentially damaging levels. … ECB can’t count on Fed tapering to weaken the …
10th December 2013
October’s German industrial production data suggested that the country’s main growth engine has not only stalled, but gone into reverse. … German Industrial Production & Trade …
9th December 2013
Q3’s final Greek GDP release revealed that the recession continued to ease. But with deflationary pressures building, Greece’s debt problems are still growing. … Greek GDP (Q3) & CPI Inflation …
The latest economic data show that Finland’s economy is struggling to recover from the recent yearlong recession. With many more years of painful reform ahead, it is likely that GDP growth will continue to fall short of both consensus and official …
For now at least, the ECB appears happy to leave its “powerful artillery” in the arsenal due to its fairly sanguine outlook for inflation. But rather than start to rise gently in line with the ECB’s forecasts, we expect both core and headline inflation to …
Although Iceland’s GDP data is very volatile, Q3’s sharp economic expansion shows that the country is successfully rebuilding its economy. … Iceland GDP …
6th December 2013
Although Iceland’s GDP data is very volatile, Q3’s sharp economic expansion shows that the country is successfully rebuilding its economy. … Iceland GDP (Q3 …
President Draghi emphasised at December’s interest rate press conference that the ECB has a “powerful artillery of instruments available”. And the pressure on it to use these instruments looks set to grow. … Pressure on the ECB to take further action …
5th December 2013
The weakening Norwegian economy prompted the Norges Bank to push back its tightening cycle today. With the Bank revising down its economic forecasts closer to our own, we agree with its new projection that rates will remain on hold until at least …
Having slowed almost to a halt in Q3, early indications suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is unlikely to have regained much momentum – if any – in the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile, the continued strength of the euro exchange rate is …
4th December 2013
The breakdown of Q3 GDP and more timely news on retail sales and the final PMIs further underlined the weakness of the euro-zone’s recovery. … Euro-zone GDP (Q3 13), Final PMIs (Nov.13) & Retail Sales …
Last week’s rating changes by S&P, which stripped the Netherlands of its triple A status and moved Spain from negative watch to stable, appeared to re-affirm the recent message from the economic data that the imbalances between the core and peripheral …
2nd December 2013
The latest news on euro-zone inflation and unemployment will do little to relieve the pressure on the ECB to take more action to support the fragile economic recovery and head off a potentially damaging bout of deflation. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & …
29th November 2013
Sweden’s much weaker than anticipated rise in GDP in Q3 increases the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its monetary policy stance. … Swedish & Danish GDP …
Sweden’s much weaker than anticipated rise in GDP in Q3 increases the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its monetary policy stance. … Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3 …
Last month's cut in interest rates has not lifted the pressure on the ECB to provide more support for the fragile economic recovery. Accordingly, President Draghi may make a more concerted effort to talk down the euro at the post-meeting press conference …
28th November 2013
Portugal is unlikely to follow in Ireland’s footsteps and achieve a “clean exit” from its existing rescue package. We think that the most likely scenario is that Portugal seeks a second full-blown bail-out. … A second bail-out still looms for …
November’s rise in the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a comforting sign given the recent falls in other indicators, like the composite PMI, but we still expect the recovery to remain weak. … Euro-zone EC Survey, German Unemp. …
There remains little sign that a pick-up in euro-zone bank lending to help support the fragile economic recovery is taking place. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirm that the economy is continuing to withstand the effects of the strong currency. But growth remains steady rather than spectacular. … Swiss GDP …
Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirm that the economy is continuing to withstand the effects of the strong currency. But growth remains steady rather than spectacular. … Swiss GDP (Q3 …
While Greece and Ireland remain ahead of their fiscal consolidation targets, Italy appears set to record a larger than planned deficit this year. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
27th November 2013
September’s euro-zone trade data and November’s PMI surveys, both released last week, gave mixed signals on how the euro-zone’s external sector is developing. Whilst the survey data suggested that exports could pick up soon, the hard data painted a less …
25th November 2013
November’s German Ifo index echoed the message of the ZEW survey and PMI that the economy might have regained a bit of momentum in the fourth quarter. But growth looks set to be steady rather than spectacular. … German Ifo Survey …
22nd November 2013
November’s fall in euro-zone consumer confidence adds to signs that the eurozone recovery may have lost some momentum in Q4. … Euro-zone Flash Consumer Confidence …
21st November 2013
November’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that the region’s anaemic recovery may be losing more steam. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
November’s German ZEW survey provided some evidence that the euro-zone’s biggest economy has continued to expand in the fourth quarter, but at a relatively moderate pace. … German ZEW Survey …
19th November 2013
Q3’s rebound in mainland Norwegian GDP growth concealed mounting evidence that the country’s boom is fading. … Norwegian GDP (Q3) …
Q3’s rebound in mainland Norwegian GDP growth concealed mounting evidence that the country’s boom is fading. … Norwegian GDP (Q3 …
The breakdown of France’s Q3 drop in GDP, released last week, underlined the pressure on firms. Without more ambitious structural reforms, weak investment and employment growth mean that French GDP will continue to fall short of official and consensus …
18th November 2013
The latest euro-zone trade data indicate that although the trade surplus continues to widen, weak global demand and the strong euro are holding back exports. … Euro-zone Trade …
Q3's meagre rise in euro-zone GDP clearly was disappointing, but there were some signs that growth within the region is converging. The slowdown was largely down to weaker growth in Germany and France. By contrast, GDP growth in Italy and Spain was …
Dutch investment has expanded strongly in recent quarters. But, while firms are in much better financial health than households, they won’t drive a decent recovery in the wider economy. … Dutch firms will not power a decent …
14th November 2013
Q3’s GDP figures suggest that Greece is not yet benefitting from the modest economic revival in the euro-zone as a whole and we continue to think that the economic forecasts on which its bail-out plans are based remain too optimistic. … Greek recession …
