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May's unemployment data highlighted that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is still too weak to erode the significant amount of slack in the labour market. … Euro-zone Unemployment (May) & Final Manu. PMI …
1st July 2014
May’s small improvement in the euro-zone monetary data will not be enough to shake off concerns that the financial sector is a brake on the recovery and does little to diminish the risk that the region could slip into deflation. … Euro-zone Monetary …
30th June 2014
June’s weak euro-zone inflation figures will add to pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support, particularly given recent signs that the recovery may already be slowing. … Euro-zone Flash CPI …
Last week's euro-zone economic data added to the growing weight of evidence that the fledgling recovery in the currency union - which only really got going a year ago - is already running out of steam. Key surveys like the PMI, EC survey and German Ifo …
June’s EC Business and Consumer Survey added to signs that the euro-zone recovery could be nearing a peak when it has barely begun. … Euro-zone EC Survey & German CPI estimate …
27th June 2014
The ECB is very unlikely to unveil additional policy support at its policy meeting on 3rd July as it waits to judge the effect of the raft of measures announced in June. President Draghi is likely to reiterate that interest rates should be on hold for a …
26th June 2014
Contrary to official forecasts, Italy’s huge public debt is unlikely to fall over the coming years. Given the size of the economy, this will leave not only Italy in a very precarious position, but also the wider euro-zone. … Can Italy really stop its …
25th June 2014
June’s Ifo survey added to signs that German GDP growth may already be slowing at what should have been an early stage of the recovery. … German Ifo Survey …
24th June 2014
The French economy is probably faring a little better than June’s dreadful PMIs suggest. But more austerity and weak competitiveness mean that it will continue to weigh on the euro-zone’s recovery. … PMIs highlight France’s stuttering …
23rd June 2014
June’s PMIs suggested that the euro-zone recovery only gained a little momentum in Q2 and highlighted the continued divergence between France and Germany. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
Data last week revealed that euro-zone labour costs growth fell to just 0.9% in Q1, adding to evidence of deflationary pressure in the region. The fall in wage growth has not been confined to the public sector or to the peripheral economies. And while …
As we expected given signs of a slowdown in the energy sector, the Norges Bank pushed back its first projected rate hike until 2016. Although the krone weakened on the news, the economic slowdown may generate more downward pressure on the currency. … …
19th June 2014
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) today maintained its strongly supportive policy stance, pledging to enforce the ceiling on the Swiss franc with “the utmost determination”. We think that the SNB will be forced to renew its currency interventions before long. …
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) today maintained its strongly supportive policy stance, pledging to enforce the ceiling on the Swiss franc with “the utmost determination”. We think that the SNB will beforced to renew its currency interventions before long. …
June’s fall in ZEW economic expectations suggested that investors were unimpressed by recent ECB action and added to signs that the German recovery is nearing a peak. … German ZEW Survey (Jun.) & Euro-zone Labour Costs …
17th June 2014
Industrial production is now expanding faster in the euro-zone’s periphery than in the core. While this reflects progress made towards restructuring in the peripheral economies, industry still faces big constraints that will prevent the sector powering …
16th June 2014
April’s euro-zone trade data suggested that the strong euro continues to undermine export growth, highlighting that the ECB still has more to do to support the recovery. … Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) & Employment …
13th June 2014
Finland has gone from being one of the euro-zone’s strongest performers pre-crisis to one of the worst, following the demise of its key industries. Reforms to boost growth will take time and effort, suggesting the period of very low or negative growth …
12th June 2014
April’s rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that industry is strengthening after a weak start to the year. But the recovery remains weak by historical standards. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
The EC’s latest batch of country reports shows that the euro-zone has already achieved substantial structural reform and fiscal consolidation. But the region faces several more years of painful reform. … More austerity pain to come for …
11th June 2014
Today’s Italian Q1 GDP breakdown and industrial production data suggested that the economy might return to growth in Q2. But France’s latest industrial production figures show that the recovery there remains pretty weak. … French & Italian Ind. …
10th June 2014
While the ECB made a number of announcements last week, the policies involved are not as bold as they might seem. The interest rate cuts were clearly tiny and the decision not to sterilise bond purchases made under the Securities Markets Programme …
9th June 2014
The small fall in Icelandic GDP in the first quarter of 2014 was somewhat disappointing but we do not think that this marks the start of a renewed deterioration in the economy. … Iceland GDP …
6th June 2014
April’s German industrial production and trade data added to signs that the recovery in the euro-zone’s largest economy may already be slowing. … German Industrial Production & Trade …
The small fall in Icelandic GDP in the first quarter of 2014 was somewhat disappointing but we do not think that this marks the start of a renewed deterioration in the economy. … Iceland GDP (Q1 …
The ECB unveiled an array of policies to boost bank lending and counter deflationary risks today. But there are uncertainties over how effective these policies will be. And while it is good news that the Bank is preparing a programme of asset purchases, …
5th June 2014
Although we have nudged up our forecasts in light of recent data, Norway’s economy is still set to expand by less than the Norges Bank expects. This may prompt it to delay raising rates until 2016. … Housing & energy still constraints on Norwegian …
April’s retail sales data suggested that euro-zone consumers may be beginning to return to the high-street, although so far this seems to have come at the expense of non-retail spending. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Ger. Factory Orders …
Q1 GDP data confirmed that Finland’s economy is still struggling to exit its recession. Indeed, it now seems that 2014 will mark the third straight year of economic contraction for the northernmost euro-zone member, confirming that the region’s problems …
May’s fall in euro-zone HICP inflation from 0.7% to 0.5% left it at its joint weakest rate since October 2009 and far beneath the ECB’s 2% price stability ceiling. There is no sign of inflationary pressure in the pipeline: there is plenty of spare …
4th June 2014
The latest batch of data on the euro-zone maintained the strong pressure on the ECB to provide further policy stimulus at tomorrow’s Governing Council meeting. … Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1), Final PMI (May) & PPI …
There is a real and growing danger that the euro-zone enters a Japanese-style bout of flat or falling prices. But even a prolonged period of low positive inflation would seriously hamper the peripheral countries’ efforts to restore their public finances …
3rd June 2014
May’s fall in euro-zone inflation and the still high level of unemployment in April will add to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support in order to address the growing risks of deflation in the single currency area. … Euro-zone Flash CPI …
Although progress is still slow, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided more evidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
2nd June 2014
While the ECB looks certain to implement further policy action at this week’s Governing Council meeting – probably in the form of an interest rate cut and measures to stimulate bank lending – this seems unlikely to have much of a downward effect on the …
Q1’s small fall in Swedish GDP was little surprise after its sharp rise in Q4. But while the economy’s underlying growth is decent, the Riksbank might yet ease policy again in order to ward of deflationary pressures. … Swedish GDP …
30th May 2014
Q1’s small fall in Swedish GDP was little surprise after its sharp rise in Q4. But while the economy’s underlying growth is decent, the Riksbank might yet ease policy again in order to ward of deflationary pressures. … Swedish GDP (Q1 …
A small cut in the ECB’s main refinancing rate seems like a done deal this month and is likely to be accompanied by a reduction in the deposit rate to below zero. The Bank also seems set to offer more long-term loans to the banking sector on the condition …
29th May 2014
The renewed rise in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) suggests that the euro-zone recovery might gather a little pace in Q2. But growth will probably remain too weak to ward off deflationary pressures. … Euro-zone EC Survey …
28th May 2014
April’s euro-zone monetary data highlighted the fragile nature of the region’s banks and should spur the ECB to ease policy further at its meeting next week. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
The Danish economy started 2014 strongly. But continued household deleveraging means that growth this year is likely to be more sluggish than the consensus expects. … Danish GDP …
Q1’s pick-up in Swiss GDP growth is a relief after a weak Q4 and suggests that the economy is still coping with the strong franc. But the threat of prolonged deflation will keep the central bank in strongly accommodative mode for a long time yet. … …
Q1’s pick-up in Swiss GDP growth is a relief after a weak Q4 and suggests that the economy is still coping with the strong franc. But the threat of prolonged deflation will keep the central bank in strongly accommodative mode for a long time yet. … Swiss …
The Danish economy started 2014 strongly. But continued household deleveraging means that growth this year is likely to be more sluggish than the consensus expects. … Danish GDP (Q1 …
Although populist parties will remain a minority at the European Parliament, the euro-zone’s weak recovery will sustain support for these parties, undermining national reform efforts across the region. … Weak euro-zone recovery will sustain populist …
27th May 2014
France’s economy hasn’t picked up much steam since it stagnated in Q1. Although the outlook for the second half of the year is a little brighter, the recovery will remain pretty weak. The resulting divergence with the German economy will complicate …
26th May 2014
The breakdown of German GDP for Q1 confirmed that the strong quarterly gain was partly down to temporary factors. And the renewed fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator in May suggested that the recovery may now be slowing. … German Ifo Survey (May) …
23rd May 2014
