Filtered by Subscriptions: Asia Economics Use setting Asia Economics
Bank Indonesia today cut its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.00%. We believe that one more cut is likely in this cycle. Today’s statement hints that, as long as the recent market calm persists, it is likely sooner rather than later, before US …
18th February 2016
Malaysia’s economy slowed further in Q4, with growth dropping to 4.5% y/y from 4.7% the quarter before. Against a backdrop of low commodity prices and high household debt, the slowdown looks set to deepen this year. … Malaysia GDP …
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today against a backdrop of heightened financial market volatility. While we can’t rule out a rate cut in the coming months, especially after the BoK took a slightly more …
16th February 2016
Thailand’s growth eased slightly in the final quarter of 2015, to a seasonally-adjusted 0.8% q/q from 1.0% the quarter before. While fiscal spending should help prop up the economy in 2016, the pace of the recovery will be gradual, given the backdrop of …
15th February 2016
The recent slowdown in remittances to the Philippines is not a major cause for concern. In fact, with other sectors of the economy, notably manufacturing and business outsourcing, growing strongly, there are welcome signs the economy is finding other …
12th February 2016
The decision by the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 4.0% came as no surprise. With growth picking up but inflation low, we doubt the central bank will be in any rush to raise rates. We expect the policy rate …
11th February 2016
The sharp rise in Korea’s private sector debt over the past decade has raised concerns about financial stability. While there are good reasons to believe that a crisis is not in the offing, Korea will face some repercussions from its credit binge. The …
10th February 2016
Bangladesh is one of the best-placed countries in Asia to take advantage of rising costs in China, and we expect it to grow by around 6% a year on average over the next decade. Given its size and potential, Bangladesh should perhaps be getting more …
5th February 2016
Indonesia’s growth picked up to 5.0% y/y in Q4, from 4.7% in Q3, but the expansion was still well below the 5.8% average recorded over the past decade. Looking ahead, looser monetary policy should support the economy, but with commodity prices set to …
The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today came as no surprise. With the economy gradually recovering and the government stepping up efforts to support growth, we expect rates to be kept on hold throughout …
3rd February 2016
The January PMIs for Emerging Asia were generally disappointing and underline the fragility of the region’s manufacturing recovery. … Manufacturing PMIs …
1st February 2016
Asia’s markets were badly caught up in the global sell-off earlier in the month, and although sentiment seems to have settled down in recent days, most of the region’s equity markets are still down year-to-date. Similarly, the majority of Asian currencies …
29th January 2016
Hong Kong made international headlines last week after it was shown to have the least affordable property market in the world. But Hong Kong is not the only economy in the region where property prices look out of line with fundamentals. Prices also look …
Taiwan’s economy climbed out of recession last quarter and we expect the recovery to gain momentum this year, as growth in Taiwan’s main trading partners picks up and domestic demand strengthens. … Taiwan GDP (Q4 …
Vietnam’s new top leadership team, which has just been unveiled, takes the reins at a key moment for the economy. Although short-term prospects remain good, further reforms are needed for the economy to achieve its full potential. … Key challenges await …
28th January 2016
Malaysia’s government cut its spending plans for 2016 today in response to recent declines in global oil prices. While Malaysia’s commitment to fiscal discipline is encouraging, it will come at the cost of slower economic growth. … Malaysia puts fiscal …
Growth in the Philippines picked up again in the fourth quarter and looks set to gain more momentum in 2016. The domestic economy is in very good health but, perhaps surprisingly given the current handwringing over the state of the global economy, exports …
Inflation across Emerging Asia remains very low, with consumer prices rising by less than 2% y/y in seven of the 14 countries we track. Two of those, Thailand and Singapore, are in deflation, while there are only two countries, India and Bangladesh, where …
27th January 2016
It always looked inevitable that Korea’s economy would lose some momentum in the final quarter of 2015, after the strong rebound in Q3. However, we expect growth to pick up again in the coming quarters, supported by a modest recovery in exports as well as …
26th January 2016
Global markets have had a rocky start to the year with equities, emerging market currencies and oil bearing the brunt of the declines. The stock market falls are unlikely to have much of an impact on regional growth prospects, while weaker currencies and …
22nd January 2016
A cyclical recovery in China’s economy and free trade agreements that came into force in late 2015 should provide a boost to Korean exports this year. But with Chinese companies making more of the components that were previously imported from Korea, the …
The decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today to cuts its statutory reserve requirement (SRR) ratio is not a signal that interest rates cuts are on the way. Worries about currency weakness and high levels of foreign currency debt mean BNM’s main …
21st January 2016
The weekend’s election result marks a major political landmark for Taiwan, with the anti-China Democratic People’s Party (DPP) winning not only the presidency, but also gaining control of the legislature for the first time. Although relations with China …
18th January 2016
Fears of a sudden devaluation of the Chinese renminbi have cast a shadow over Emerging Asia’s economic prospects since the start of the year. But while Asian exporters would hardly welcome a slump in the renminbi , the impact on the rest of the region …
15th January 2016
Bank Indonesia’s decision to cut interest rates today should provide a long-overdue boost to the struggling economy. But the central bank will take a cautious approach from here. … Indonesia will only cut rates …
14th January 2016
Bangladesh Bank has today cut its policy rates for the first time since 2013 to give the economy a further lift. Although the central bank has become more confident of meeting its inflation target, there appears to be little scope for further loosening. …
Against a backdrop of global financial market volatility and rising household debt, the Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today. We do not expect any changes in the coming months. … Korea to hold rates in …
Turmoil in China’s financial markets has fuelled concerns that its real economy is also on the brink of a crisis, but we expect continued policy support to drive a recovery over the coming months. Stronger growth in China should in turn provide a boost to …
13th January 2016
The renewed fall in oil prices in recent months is a further blow to Malaysia’s economy. Moreover, there is very little scope for policymakers to support growth with fiscal or monetary loosening. We now expect a deeper slowdown in 2016. … Oil price fall …
In this first Weekly of 2016, we take our usual look at the important elections that are set to take place in Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and the region’s economies. … Elections in 2016 – what they mean for …
8th January 2016
Thailand’s economy has had a disappointing decade, partly reflecting the economic costs of prolonged political conflict. The military-backed government’s recent efforts to address Thailand’s structural challenges are encouraging but, with political …
5th January 2016
While Asian manufacturing conditions remain lacklustre, the broad-based rise in Emerging Asia's PMIs for December is encouraging and suggests that the region’s manufacturing sectors are on the path to recovery. … Manufacturing PMIs …
4th January 2016
Singapore’s economy looks to have ended 2015 strongly, but we shouldn’t get too carried away. The advanced estimate is not a reliable guide to final GDP figures and, even if that were not the case, Singapore’s economy is very volatile, with strong …
Asian financial markets have taken the start of Fed tightening in their stride. Currencies, equities and government bond yields have all been fairly stable over the past month. … A quiet end to the …
23rd December 2015
The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) formally takes effect on 31st December and aims to transform ASEAN into a single market and production base, which its supporters hope will one day enable it to rival China as the workshop of the world. ASEAN has already …
A slump in exports, slowing growth and falling currencies made for a grim 2015. But will next year be any better? In this final Weekly of the year, we outline our key calls for 2016. … What to expect from Asia in …
18th December 2015
Today’s decision by Taiwan’s central bank (the CBC) to cut its main policy rate by 12.5 basis points to 1.625% reflects concern over the current weakness of the economy. Looking ahead, we are optimistic that growth will start to pick up soon, which should …
17th December 2015
Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its key policy rate on hold today at 7.50%, but dropped the clearest signal yet that an interest rate cut is not far away. We are maintaining our view that the central bank will cut rates early in 2016. … Bank Indonesia to cut …
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today ahead of the upcoming US rate decision and amid signs of a stabilising domestic economy. With price pressures benign and the economic recovery likely to be modest, we …
16th December 2015
We would be wary of reading too much into today’s GDP figures from Sri Lanka, which suggest the economy slowed sharply in the third quarter. The country’s statistical office has recently rebased its GDP statistics, and the reliability of the new figures …
15th December 2015
The boost to regional growth from the recent slide in global oil prices is likely to be quite small unless consumers decide to spend rather than save the latest windfall. … What do the latest falls in oil prices mean for …
A large amount of capital has flowed into Asia in recent years but the risks posed by these inflows are generally exaggerated. Asian central banks have mopped up net inflows and recycled them into reserves. As such, it is perhaps no surprise that there is …
14th December 2015
For most of Emerging Asia an increase in US interest rates is not a major cause for concern. Only in Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore do we think Fed tightening could cause some problems. … No need to panic about Fed …
11th December 2015
With the domestic economy on the mend, the Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today. We expect the BoK to keep rates at their current lows throughout 2016. … Bank of Korea to keep rates on pause through …
10th December 2015
The combination of slowing investment alongside continued strong consumption growth in China is having a major impact on the pattern of growth in the rest of Asia. Hong Kong and Vietnam have been the biggest beneficiaries, while Indonesia and Malaysia, …
7th December 2015
Taiwan’s economy slipped into recession last quarter as the country’s terrible export performance fed into much weaker consumer spending. However, we expect a return to growth in the fourth quarter, and further improvement is likely next year. … Taiwan’s …
4th December 2015
Consumer price inflation in Indonesia dropped back sharply in November as the impact of last year’s hike in subsidised fuel prices dropped out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, inflation looks set to remain comfortably within BI’s 3-5% inflation …
1st December 2015
At best, Emerging Asia's PMIs for November suggest that the region’s manufacturing sectors are past the worst of this year’s downturn. But conditions generally remain weak, while the decline in Malaysia’s manufacturing sector appears to have deepened. … …
Asian financial markets have held up well over the past month despite a renewed slump in China’s equity market at the end of last week and growing expectations of a December Fed rate hike. … No sense of panic as Fed hike …
30th November 2015
For all the talk of a sharp slowdown in Asia, regional growth remains remarkably stable. That said, there are still no signs of recovery, with exports again acting as a drag on growth in the third quarter, and consumers still unwilling to spend their …
27th November 2015
