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Today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% had been widely expected. Looking ahead, while a growing number of analysts are predicting that the BSP will have to hike rates soon, we continue to …
23rd March 2017
Political campaigning in South Korea ahead of presidential elections due on 9th May is now well underway. Given the extent of public anger against ousted former president Park Geun-hye and her ruling party, the next president is likely to come from one of …
21st March 2017
The risk that the US may seek to renegotiate or even pull out from the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) is a big concern for Korean exporters. However, there are reasons to think the US may decide against taking a harsh line with Korea in any future …
17th March 2017
Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold today and struck a cautious tone in its statement which followed the meeting. Looking ahead, we think that worries about inflation and concerns about the currency will prevent the central bank from loosening …
16th March 2017
For most economies in Emerging Asia it will be local factors, not the actions of the US Federal Reserve, which will determine the next moves by the region’s central banks. … Asia will not follow the Fed’s …
GDP growth in Sri Lanka accelerated last quarter according to the official figures, but is likely to slow in 2017 as fiscal and monetary policy are tightened. … Sri Lanka GDP …
15th March 2017
Improving export prospects, healthy external positions and easing concerns about a large devaluation of the renminbi mean Asian currencies should hold up relatively well over the coming year even if the US Fed hikes interest rates more aggressively than …
10th March 2017
Chinese retaliation over South Korea’s plans to deploy a US anti-missile defence system (THAAD) is an added concern for Korea’s already struggling economy. While the overall impact could be quite severe, it is also likely to be relatively short-lived. … …
9th March 2017
Korea’s political crisis is approaching a key phase as the Constitutional Court prepares to rule on whether to officially impeach President Park Geun-hye. Park’s formal impeachment would increase the chances of an early fiscal stimulus and should provide …
7th March 2017
The sharp rise in headline inflation across Emerging Asia is unlikely to be the trigger for the region’s central banks to start tightening monetary policy. The increase is almost entirely due to an acceleration in energy price inflation, which has been …
3rd March 2017
With the economy gaining momentum, it was no surprise that Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. Looking ahead, we expect BNM to keep interest rates steady for the rest of 2017. … Interest rates in Malaysia to stay on …
2nd March 2017
The PMIs for Emerging Asia in February were mostly encouraging, suggesting that manufacturing conditions in the region are slowly gaining a firmer footing. … Manufacturing PMIs …
1st March 2017
While most equity markets in the region rose for the second straight month in February, Asian currencies and bond yields largely held steady. Most Asian equity markets have recorded decent gains over the past month. Only the bourses in Thailand, …
28th February 2017
A jump in export demand provided a boost to economic growth in the region’s most trade dependent economies last quarter, with Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore all expanding at their fastest pace in nearly two years. Although relatively buoyant global …
24th February 2017
The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but with the economy struggling for momentum and underlying price pressures benign, we think it will resume its easing cycle later this year. … Korea holds rates, but easing cycle not …
23rd February 2017
A number of developments over the past month have cast a shadow over Indonesia’s prospects. The first was the publication of GDP figures for the final quarter of last year which showed a slowdown in the pace of growth. A fall in government spending, which …
Thailand’s economy ended 2016 on a subdued note. A combination of lacklustre external demand, high household debt and continued political uncertainty will keep growth subdued in the quarters ahead. … Thailand GDP …
20th February 2017
The sharp turnaround in Korea’s headline export growth in recent months owes more to a rebound in commodity price inflation than a recovery in underlying demand. Looking ahead, a combination of cyclical and structural factors will hold back export growth …
17th February 2017
Today’s revised estimate of Singapore’s fourth quarter GDP confirmed that the economy ended last year on a solid note. However, we expect Singapore’s growth to soften this year against a backdrop of lacklustre external demand and rising interest rates. … …
Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today, and we think that worries about inflation will prevent the central bank from loosening policy any further over the rest of the year too. … Bank Indonesia holds again, rates unlikely to change …
16th February 2017
Malaysia’s economy continued to gain momentum in the final quarter of last year, but against a backdrop of lacklustre external demand, high household debt and limited scope for additional policy support, we doubt growth will pick up further. … Malaysia …
The gradual deflation of what had looked like a housing bubble in Singapore has left the economy in much better shape to cope with rising interest rates. The contrast with Hong Kong, where property prices still look massively overvalued, is stark. … Hong …
10th February 2017
With the economy growing strongly but inflation under control, today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. Looking ahead, we don’t think the BSP will be in a rush to …
9th February 2017
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% for its 14th straight meeting today. With the government prepared to do the heavy lifting to support the economy, the BoT is likely to remain on the sidelines in 2017. … Bank …
8th February 2017
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept rates on hold at its meeting today, but against a backdrop of rapid credit growth, rising inflation and a weakening currency, we think it is only a matter of time before the CBSL is forced to resume its tightening …
7th February 2017
Indonesia recorded another quarter of disappointing growth in the final quarter of last year. With commodity prices likely to remain depressed and policymakers running out of scope to stimulate the economy further, we expect growth to remain stuck at …
6th February 2017
China and Mexico were the main focus of Donald Trump’s protectionist threats on the campaign trail. But the Philippines also stands out as vulnerable to any moves by the US towards isolationism. In this Weekly we look at the main channels through which …
3rd February 2017
A strong manufacturing sector would go some way to reviving the economic fortunes of Indonesia. However, the challenges are formidable, and unless more progress is made on liberalising the labour market and improving the country’s infrastructure, the …
2nd February 2017
Emerging Asia’s PMIs for January suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors started 2017 on a lacklustre note. Focusing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, Taiwan’s manufacturing sector appears to be holding up well, …
Asian currencies have rebounded against the US dollar over the past month, with the Korean won leading the way. For the most part, the recent gains reflect a weak dollar, which has fallen in value against other EM and developed market currencies in recent …
31st January 2017
Large current account surpluses are sometimes a sign of economic strength. In the case of Thailand, however, where the surplus is over 10% of GDP, it is a symptom of a deeply depressed economy. … Thailand’s current account surplus is a sign of …
27th January 2017
The Philippines recorded another quarter of solid growth in Q4 and should continue to grow reasonably strongly over the forecast period. The uncertain political situation at home and Donald Trump’s election in the US represent the major downside risks to …
26th January 2017
Taiwan’s economy rebounded strongly in the final quarter of last year, but with weak global demand set to drag on exports and limited scope for more policy support, the recovery is likely to run out of steam soon. … Taiwan GDP (Q4 …
25th January 2017
Korea’s economy ended 2016 on a soft note, and we expect growth will slow further in the quarters ahead against a backdrop of mounting external and domestic headwinds. … Korea GDP (Q4 …
24th January 2017
The demise of the TPP represents a major blow to some countries in Emerging Asia, most notably Vietnam. The benefits of any China-led regional trade deal are likely to be much smaller. … How big a blow is the demise of the TPP to …
There remains a great deal of uncertainty over what a Trump presidency will mean for the US economy, let alone Asia. This Weekly looks at the key channels through which a Trump presidency will affect the region. … What will a Trump presidency mean for …
20th January 2017
Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today, and with inflation set to rise later in the year and the currency likely to come under renewed downward pressure as the Fed continues to hike interest rates, we see little scope for further …
19th January 2017
Today’s decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to keep interest rates on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. With the economy now recovering and the ringgit vulnerable to turns in investor sentiment, we expect rates to be left on hold throughout 2017. … …
Policymakers in Vietnam are becoming increasingly complacent of the risks posed by the rapid build-up in debt, as reflected by the government’s recent announcement that it was targeting credit growth of 17% this year. Such an outcome would be almost …
17th January 2017
Poor infrastructure remains a major constraint on economic growth prospects across large parts of Emerging Asia. A couple of countries, namely the Philippines and Thailand, are likely to see a big increase in infrastructure spending over the next few …
13th January 2017
The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but with growth likely to slow further and inflation benign, we expect a rate cut later this year. … Korea holds rates, but easing in 2017 …
Most countries in Emerging Asia should continue to grow at a decent pace over the next couple of years as loose monetary policy helps support demand. The key exception is China, where growth looks set to slow as policy stimulus is withdrawn. Overall, we …
In this first Weekly of 2017, we take our usual look at the important elections that are set to take place in Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic growth. … Elections in 2017 – what they mean for …
6th January 2017
Emerging Asia’s PMIs were a mixed bag in December. Focusing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, the recovery in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector appears to have accelerated, while Korea’s showed some signs of stabilisation. …
3rd January 2017
Today’s advanced estimate of Singapore’s fourth quarter GDP suggests the economy avoided a technical recession at the end of last year. However, rising interest rates and lacklustre global demand will keep growth subdued in 2017. … Singapore GDP (Q4 …
Q4 GDP figures for Vietnam, which are due to be published sometime over the next couple of weeks, are likely to show the economy is continuing to expand at a rapid rate. However, the risks facing the country are building. Growth is unlikely to slow …
23rd December 2016
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.375%, but with growth likely to struggle over the coming year and inflationary pressures very weak, we think it will resume its easing cycle soon. … Taiwan to resume easing cycle next …
22nd December 2016
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today, and with fiscal policy taking the lead in boosting growth but inflationary pressures benign, the BoT is likely to keep rates unchanged throughout 2017. … Thailand to keep rates on …
21st December 2016
Asian financial markets took last week’s resumption of the US Fed’s tightening cycle in their stride, but bigger tests are likely to come in 2017 if, as we expect, the Fed raises rates further than markets currently anticipate. Asian equities have been …
19th December 2016
The past year has been a mixed one for Asian economies, with buoyant domestic demand helping to compensate for continued weak export growth. But will next year be any better? In our penultimate Weekly of the year, we outline what 2017 has in store for the …
16th December 2016
