Filtered by Subscriptions: Asia Economics Use setting Asia Economics
The corruption scandal which has engulfed Korea over the weekend is a major blow to the authority of President Park Geun-hye. The economic impact, however, is likely to prove quite small. … Korean scandal a blow for the president, but not the …
31st October 2016
The dollar value of exports from Emerging Asia (excluding China) grew in August by 3.1% y/y – the first expansion in nearly two years. The recent improvement in export performance owes more to the fading effects of the collapse in commodity prices on …
28th October 2016
There is little sign that the death of the King of Thailand or the increasingly erratic behaviour of President Duterte of the Philippines is, so far at least, having much of an impact on the economy of either country. But while we are keeping our growth …
Today’s GDP figures show that Taiwan’s economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, but with weak global demand set to drag on exports and limited scope for more support from either fiscal or monetary policy, growth is likely to weaken again soon … …
Korea’s economy lost momentum in the third quarter of 2016, and we expect growth will struggle in the coming quarters due to a combination of rising domestic headwinds and subdued global demand. … Korea GDP (Q3 …
25th October 2016
The fifth straight rise in the manufacturing PMI in October indicates that firms are dealing well with the headwind from a stronger exchange rate. What’s more, the survey suggests that consumer prices are no longer falling. … Flash Manufacturing PMI …
24th October 2016
The Philippines’ shift towards closer ties with China is unlikely to bring many economic benefits to the country. And by upsetting the US there is a risk that President Duterte undermines a much more important bilateral relationship. … Shift away from US …
21st October 2016
Despite the progress Joko Widodo has made in pushing through some important economic reforms during his first two years in office, we see little prospect of a sustained rebound in economic growth in Indonesia. Growth is likely to remain stuck at around …
Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to reduce its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% is unlikely to mark the end of its rate cutting cycle. However, further loosening is likely to be gradual. … Further easing set to be gradual as Bank …
20th October 2016
The recent problems at Samsung Electronics, which culminated in last week’s decision to scrap production of its premium Note 7 smartphone, could shave around 0.1-0.2% percentage points off GDP growth this year not only in Korea, but also Vietnam. … …
17th October 2016
The Malaysian government is likely to prioritise maintaining fiscal discipline over supportingthe weak economy at its upcoming budget. … Malaysia to signal continued commitment to fiscal …
14th October 2016
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today left its monetary policy settings unchanged, having loosened policy at its last meeting in April. With the economy set to exit deflation over the coming months, we expect monetary policy to stay on hold, …
The death of Thailand’s highly-revered king will plunge the country into a state of mourning, and also deep political uncertainty. There is a risk that political tensions flare up, triggering a slowdown in economic growth. … King’s death casts shadow …
13th October 2016
The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, and while the consensus expects another rate cut in the coming months, we think rising concerns about Korea’s high household debt are likely to deter the central bank from lowering …
The worsening health of the King of Thailand poses a key risk to the country’s economy. His death would plunge the country back into political crisis, which in turn could push the economy into recession. … Poor health of the king is the key risk to Thai …
10th October 2016
It remains to be seen if Donald Trump would follow through on some of his more protectionist policies if he is elected president of the United States. If he did, then the repercussions for some parts of Emerging Asia would be significant, with the …
7th October 2016
While Emerging Asia continues to face headwinds, loose fiscal and monetary policy in most economies should continue to support demand over the next couple of years, and we expect regional growth to remain broadly flat at around 4.5% in 2017-18. However, a …
4th October 2016
The PMIs for Emerging Asia in September were mostly encouraging, suggesting that manufacturing conditions in the region are slowly gaining a firmer footing. However, the struggles of Korea’s manufacturing sector appear to have deepened. … Manufacturing …
3rd October 2016
When Rodrigo Duterte became president of the Philippines on 30 th June, we warned that although the fundamentals were in place for the economy to grow strongly, his election had made the outlook much less certain. With his first 100 days as president …
30th September 2016
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.375%, but with growth likely to remain subdued and inflationary pressures very weak, we think it will resume its easing cycle soon. … Taiwan’s central bank to resume easing cycle next …
29th September 2016
The weakness in Vietnam’s economy so far this year has been down to the agriculturesector, which has been hit hard by a drought. But with weather patterns nowreturning to normal, growth should rebound soon. Meanwhile, other sectors of theeconomy should …
Financial markets in the Philippines have fallen in September amid growing concern over the increasingly erratic behaviour of the country’s new president, Rodrigo Duterte. … Duterte’s antics hits sentiment in the …
28th September 2016
In the six months since Myanmar’s new civilian government took power, it has made a decent start in addressing some of the country’s problems. However, Myanmar will not fulfil its potential unless the government does more to restore macro-stability and …
23rd September 2016
With the economy growing strongly but inflation under control, today’s decision by the central bank inthe Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. Looking ahead,we think the central bank will be in little hurry …
22nd September 2016
Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to loosen monetary policy demonstrates that the central bank’s focus is clearly on supporting the economy. Although BI signalled that the rate cutting cycle is not yet over, with the US Fed likely to raise rates …
Financial markets in the Philippines have fallen back in recent weeks amid growing concern over the increasingly erratic behaviour of the country’s new president, Rodrigo Duterte. Following his election in May, Duterte helped to sooth the nerves of …
20th September 2016
Recent claims by Thai exporters and policymakers that a “strong” baht is to blame for the country’s poor export performance are wrong. The baht does not look strong relative to the currencies of its competitors or its own history. Instead, low global …
16th September 2016
GDP figures published today show economic growth in Sri Lanka slowed sharply inthe second quarter of 2016. Given the serious doubts that remain about the reliabilityof the data, we are wary of reading too much into today’s figures. But the key point …
15th September 2016
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but with growth set to slowand inflationary pressures very low, further easing is likely in the coming quarters. … Thailand holds policy rate, but easing can’t be ruled …
14th September 2016
With the economy showing some signs of improvement, the Bank of Korea (BoK) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today. While benign inflation will give the BoK scope to keep rates low, concerns about high household debt are likely to …
9th September 2016
The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has just concluded its annual meeting in Laos, has little chance of becoming the kind of single market and production base which could one day allow it to rival China as the workshop of the world. …
Following its move to cut rates in response to rising downside risks to growth at its last meeting in July, Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0%. With growth still on track to meet BNM’s forecast of 4.0-4.5% in 2016 …
7th September 2016
Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will be soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring the economy under control. We think such fears are …
5th September 2016
The outbreak of the Zika virus in Singapore has dominated local headlines, but while it is an important public health issue the economic impact will be limited. … How big a threat is Zika to …
2nd September 2016
The August PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest manufacturing conditions in the region remain lacklustre. Focusing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, there are signs of improvement in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector, but Korea’s …
1st September 2016
Asian financial markets generally shrugged off last Friday’s comments from US Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in which she suggested the likelihood of an early rate hike in the US has increased. … Asian markets calm following Yellen’s …
31st August 2016
The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today left interest rates on hold despite a continued acceleration in credit growth, high inflation and a weak currency. We think another interest rate hike is only amatter of time. … Sri Lanka holds rates, but further …
30th August 2016
Economic growth across Emerging Asia accelerated last quarter, as strong domestic demand compensated for weak exports. But while this “decoupling” has enabled Emerging Asia to shrug-off the weakness in global demand, it has come at a cost. Private sector …
26th August 2016
The past month has given investors more reasons to be optimistic on the outlook for Indonesia’s economy. The first piece of good news came in late July when it was announced that the highly-respected and pro-reform, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, would be …
24th August 2016
Bank Indonesia (BI) left its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo, on hold today at 5.25%, but with growth struggling and inflationary pressures low, a rate cut is likely sooner rather than later. … Easing likely to resume in Indonesia …
19th August 2016
The recent improvement in export performance across Emerging Asia owes more to the fading effects of the collapse in commodity prices on export values than a recovery in underlying demand. We expect demand for Asian exports to remain weak over the next …
Today’s Q2 GDP data for the Philippines show that President Rodrigo Duterte has taken over a country in good shape. Although the foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, Duterte’s election has made the outlook more uncertain. … Philippines …
18th August 2016
Thailand’s growth slowed last quarter, and the recent bombings in some of the country’s key tourist destinations present a significant downside risk to economic activity. … Thailand GDP …
15th August 2016
Given the current backdrop of weak growth, low inflation and a stable currency, Bank Indonesia is likely to cut its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo rate, at its upcoming meeting. But more important for the economy will be what happens to …
12th August 2016
Malaysia’s economy slowed further in the second quarter of 2016. With the prices of its main commodity exports set to remain low and the room for policy stimulus limited, a strong rebound is not on the cards. … Malaysia GDP …
With the economy in good shape and inflation under control, today’s decision by the central bank inthe Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. Looking ahead, we think the central bank will be in little hurry to …
11th August 2016
The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.25%. With fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, we think it will take another downturn in the growth outlook to convince the BoK to deliver additional rate cuts. … Bank of …
Today’s revised estimate of Singapore’s second quarter GDP suggests the economy is still struggling for momentum. What’s more, there are a number of headwinds that will likely drag growth lower over the next year or so. … Singapore GDP (Q2 …
Indonesia’s growth picked up to 5.2% y/y in Q2 from 4.9% the quarter before. While we think the worst for Indonesia’s economy is now over, a combination of fiscal tightening and low commodity prices will keep growth stuck at around 5% over the next couple …
5th August 2016
Thailand’s upcoming referendum on a new constitution is unlikely to provide a lasting solution to the country’s political problems, and there is a real risk that tensions could once again flare up. The economy, which has been hit hard by the political …
