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Emerging Asia Chart Pack (March 2024) …
26th March 2024
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka today cut interest rates by a further 50bps and hinted at further rate cuts to come. With inflationary pressures under control and the economic recovery struggling, more policy easing is likely before the end of the year. …
Political uncertainty in Vietnam on the rise One of Vietnam’s key appeals to foreign investors is its political stability relative to other low-income countries in the region. (See Chart 1.) Along with low labour costs and an improving business …
22nd March 2024
Despite the booming economy, inflationary pressures in Taiwan are likely to remain subdued. Accordingly, we think today’s unexpected rate hike by the central bank (CBC) will prove to be a case of one and done. Today’s decision to raise the policy rate by …
21st March 2024
Surprise hike but further tightening unlikely Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) unexpectedly raised its main policy rate today amid concerns about inflation. However, we think the central bank’s concerns are overdone, and expect this to be a case of one and …
We hosted an online briefing to discuss EM financial risks in more detail. Watch the recording here . Our risk indicators are presented as an interactive EM dashboard on our website here . The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing …
20th March 2024
Interest rates left unchanged, first rate cut in June Bank Indonesia left its policy rate on hold at 6.00% at its scheduled meeting today, and hinted at cuts later in the year. With inflation under control and the currency holding up well against the US …
Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated), then Vietnam should benefit from a new round of Trump …
18th March 2024
CBC on hold despite booming economy Despite the booming economy, inflation in Taiwan has been falling back in recent months. Accordingly, we expect the central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. GDP growth has …
15th March 2024
Activity holding up The second estimate of Korea’s GDP figures published this week confirmed that the economy grew by 0.6% q/q in the final quarter of last year. Encouragingly, the more recent monthly activity data suggest the economy made a decent start …
8th March 2024
Rates on hold throughout 2024 Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its overnight policy rate on hold (at 3.0%) today, and hinted in its statement that it was in little rush to change interest rates any time soon. This supports our view that the policy rate …
7th March 2024
Korea election: reform prospects in the balance President Yoon Suk-yeol has seen a rebound in his popularity in recent weeks, with an opinion poll published today showing an approval rating of 39% – up from a low earlier this year of just 29%. The …
1st March 2024
The February PMIs for economies in Emerging Asia edged down last month and were mostly inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains poor in the near term, with high interest rates and weak foreign demand likely to …
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (February 2024) …
28th February 2024
Trouble in Thailand Figures published earlier this week showed that Thailand’s economy contracted by 0.6% in the final quarter of last year. Thailand has experienced by far the slowest recovery from the pandemic in the region – GDP is now just 0.5% …
23rd February 2024
The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%) and attempted to push back against expectations for an early rate cut. However, with inflation likely to be back to target soon and domestic demand struggling, we expect easing to begin in …
22nd February 2024
On hold again, easing coming soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its main policy rate unchanged today (at 3.5%), but with inflation cooling and growth set to struggle, we don’t think cuts are far away. The decision was correctly predicted by all 38 …
Bank Indonesia left its policy rate on hold at 6.00% at its meeting today, and once again reiterated its plans to start loosening policy later in the year. We expect the central bank to start cutting rates in Q2. Today’s decision was correctly predicted …
21st February 2024
After a couple of years in the doldrums, property construction in Korea is rebounding. The recovery in the sector should provide an important prop to economic growth this year. There are encouraging signs that the worst is over for Korea’s property …
20th February 2024
Thailand’s economy contracted in Q4 due to weaker domestic demand. Looking ahead, we expect steady, if unspectacular, growth this year with a further rebound in tourism and strong government spending set to support demand. The 0.6% q/q fall in GDP was …
19th February 2024
Will the Bank of Korea turn dovish? The BoK looks almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. Instead, the focus will be on the tone of the statement. We expect the central bank to start sounding more dovish, as concerns …
16th February 2024
Easing cycle to begin around the middle of the year The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 6.50%), but sounded a little more dovish than after previous meetings. With inflation likely to stay low and …
15th February 2024
Economic growth in Singapore remained strong in Q4 but we expect the economy to weaken in the near term as external demand softens and the weakening labour market takes its toll on consumption. According to the final estimate of Q4 GDP published today, …
The result of Indonesia’s presidential election won’t be officially confirmed for a few days yet, but based on unofficial “quick counts” it looks as though the favourite, Prabowo Subianto, has won over 50% of the vote, thus avoiding the need for a …
14th February 2024
Pakistan’s general election has thrown the country’s political scene into turmoil, with no party emerging with a majority from Thursday’s poll. A hung parliament may complicate the country’s upcoming negotiations with the IMF over a new long-term loan …
9th February 2024
Inflation back to target The most recent batch of inflation figures for the region paint an encouraging picture. Headline inflation fell again in most countries last month and is now within target nearly everywhere. ( Korea and Singapore are the main …
Indonesia has some of the best long-term growth prospects of any economy. Key to whether it realises them is whether Indonesia maintains the progress President Joko Widodo (better known as Jokowi) has made on productivity-boosting structural reform. …
7th February 2024
On hold, cuts likely around mid-2024 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today resisted pressure from the government to cut interest rates to support the struggling economy. But with growth set to remain weak and inflationary pressures very subdued, we think the …
The national accounts data released today suggest that economic growth remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. With economic activity likely to remain weak in the coming quarters, and concerns about …
5th February 2024
Rate forecast changes on more hawkish Fed Our US Team changed their interest rate forecasts on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Governor Powell pushed back against the possibility of a rate cut in March. We now expect a first cut in May. In response we are …
2nd February 2024
The priority for whoever wins Pakistan’s general election on 8 th February will be to agree a new deal with the IMF, which should help put the struggling economy on a more stable footing. But thereafter the country’s dysfunctional political system will …
1st February 2024
The PMI data for Emerging Asia offered some encouraging signs but remained quite weak overall for most economies. While parts of the region are likely to see an improvement in activity, we expect global growth to slow in the near term and remain cautious …
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) …
31st January 2024
GDP growth in Taiwan accelerated further in Q4 and we expect growth to remain strong over the coming quarters, with robust growth in exports of artificial intelligence related goods to more than offset the drag from slower private consumption. According …
GDP growth remained well above trend in Q4 but we don’t expect this strength to last as the deceleration in credit growth feeds through to domestic demand while the external sector continues to struggle. According to the data published today, GDP rose by …
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept monetary policy settings unchanged today but weaker growth and easing concerns about inflation are likely to prompt the central bank to loosen policy in April. The decision to remain on hold today, for the …
29th January 2024
MAS keeps policy unchanged but loosening likely in April. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept monetary policy settings unchanged today which was in line with expectations, but we think weaker incoming activity data and easing concerns about …
Korean consumers suffering from tight policy Korea’s GDP figures published this week show that, although the economy held up relatively well last quarter, the recovery is becoming increasingly lopsided. Whereas exports grew by 2.6% q/q last quarter and …
26th January 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
25th January 2024
Economic growth in Korea held up better than expected in Q4 but we expect the economy to grow below trend over the next couple of quarters as export growth softens in near term while tight fiscal and monetary policy continue to curtail domestic demand. …
24th January 2024
The central bank (BNM) left the overnight policy rate unchanged (at 3.0%) today and we think monetary policy is set for an extended pause as policymakers attempt to strike a balance between supporting the economy and combating inflation. The decision …
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka left its deposit rate on hold (at 9.00%) today, and gave no hints at what its next move would be. However, with inflation set to remain low and growth likely to struggle, we expect the central bank to resume its rate-cutting …
23rd January 2024
Recent falls likely to be reversed soon Asian currencies have made a poor start to the year, with most having fallen by 1-4% against the US dollar. (See Chart 1.) The falls are largely a reflection of an upward shift in US interest rate expectations …
19th January 2024
GDP declined during the fourth quarter and we expect activity to remain weak in the near term amid elevated interest rates, a cooling labour market, soft foreign demand and subdued commodity prices. Today’s data release marked the second time Malaysia …
Policy rate left unchanged, central bank hints at cuts later in the year Bank Indonesia left its policy rate on hold at 6.00% at its meeting today, but gave further hints that provided the rupiah continued to hold up well against the US dollar, there …
17th January 2024
Rise in female participation rate is encouraging Korea’s December labour market report published earlier this week show the country is making welcome progress in bringing more women into the formal labour force – the female participation rate has risen to …
12th January 2024
This Update discusses how we think Taiwan’s election this weekend – which could be another flashpoint in Taiwan-China relations – might affect global equity markets, in aggregate and across some key sectors that look particularly exposed. Saturday’s …
The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%), but struck a more dovish tone than after previous meetings. With inflation on the way down and growth likely to struggle over the coming months, we expect the central bank to start cutting …
11th January 2024
On hold again, rate cuts in Q2 The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%), but with inflation cooling and growth set to struggle, we think the central bank will cut interest rates sooner than most expect. The decision was …
Note: W e held a client briefing straight after the election weekend to discuss what the vote means for Taiwan and the global economy. View the on-demand recording here . China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s …
10th January 2024
