Filtered by Subscriptions: Asia Economics Use setting Asia Economics
After a very weak first quarter that saw GDP growth in many countries drop to a post-financial crisis low, the most recent data suggest growth across Emerging Asia has continued to slow. Weak growth is likely to prompt further interest rate cuts over the …
21st June 2019
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left interest rates unchanged today at 1.375%, and is likely to be in little rush to cut interest rates despite the poor outlook for growth. We expect interest rates to be left on hold until at least the end of this year. … …
20th June 2019
Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.0% but the decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio and the dovish shift in the central bank’s rhetoric suggests interest rates are likely to be cut soon. We now expect one 25bp rate cut this …
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% today, but it clearly left the door open to further easing. With inflation likely to fall back further over the coming months and growth set to disappoint, we expect two …
GDP growth in Sri Lanka accelerated in the first quarter of the year, but with tourism arrivals collapsing following the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks, growth is likely to slow sharply this year. … Sri Lanka GDP …
19th June 2019
Expectations that the US will soon start to cut interest rates have provided a boost to Asian currencies in recent weeks. But if we are right that slowing growth in the US and the escalating trade war will cause investors to become more risk averse, Asian …
18th June 2019
The current account deficit of the Philippines widened again last quarter and is likely to remain a key source of vulnerability over the coming year. … Philippines Current Account (Q1), Remittances …
17th June 2019
Policymakers in Korea finally seem to be coming around to our view that rate cuts are needed to support the struggling economy after BoK Governor hinted that the central bank “must take appropriate measures to accommodate changes in economic conditions.” …
14th June 2019
The Korean government has made some welcome progress over recent years in encouraging more women into formal employment. But even if this trend continues, the size of the workforce in Korea looks set to fall sharply over the coming years, weighing heavily …
With productivity slowing and working age populations set to start falling across most of Asia, we expect regional growth to slow to just 3.5% in a decade’s time. This compares with average growth of 6.0% over the past 10 years. Our forecasts are much …
12th June 2019
Bank Indonesia has given further hints that it is preparing to cut interest rates, but given the poor outlook for the rupiah, we think the policy rate will remain unchanged this year. Meanwhile, confirmation that former general Prayuth Chan-ocha has been …
7th June 2019
The unexpected uptick in inflation in May mainly reflected temporary factors and is unlikely to preclude further rate cuts from the central bank. We are sticking with our forecast for two more cuts in 2019. … Philippines CPI …
5th June 2019
Weak PMI readings and the deterioration in Korea’s export data suggest that the regional economy is likely to have endured another quarter of disappointing growth in Q2, dashing hopes of a quick rebound. … Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade …
3rd June 2019
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) was able to cut rates today as a result of the resilience of the currency, but we doubt this will last. We think that the rupee will come under pressure again this year, limiting the scope for further loosening. … Sri …
31st May 2019
Signs that Philippines inflation continued to tumble in May suggest that the easing cycle there has further to run. Meanwhile, easing is also likely in Malaysia, Korea and Singapore in the second half of this year, despite all three countries recently …
The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its main policy rate on hold today in the face of a clear cut case for looser policy, but we think it will eventually change its stance. With the Bank likely to be looking back at a second quarter of disappointing growth at …
With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by around 50% in seasonally-adjusted terms, as US demand has …
29th May 2019
Growth slowed sharply in Emerging Asia last quarter, and is likely to remain fairly weak over the coming year, with looser fiscal and monetary policy unlikely to offset the drag from weaker global demand. … Weakest growth in a decade, further weakness …
27th May 2019
The 6% decline in the Korean won since the start of the year does not pose a major threat to the economy. However, policymakers are clearly irked by the decline in the currency, with officials from the Bank of Korea describing the decline as “excessive”. …
24th May 2019
GDP growth in Thailand slowed to a four-year low in the first quarter of the year, and with exports set to remain weak, we expect growth to stay subdued. The uncertain political situation is the main risk to the outlook. … Thailand GDP …
21st May 2019
Concerns about high inflation and the country’s large current account deficit mean today’s 150bp rate hike by Pakistan central bank (SBP) is unlikely to be the last in the current tightening cycle. … Pakistan hikes rates again, further tightening to …
20th May 2019
The recently announced cut to the reserve requirement ratio in the Philippines should provide a boost to economic growth and suggests that further cuts to the policy rate are likely soon. Meanwhile, the rupee came under pressure this week after Pakistan …
17th May 2019
Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today and hinted that it may consider loosening policy over the coming months. However, with the rupiah likely to lose more ground against the US dollar this year, we continue to expect …
16th May 2019
Following a slight slowdown in the first quarter, Malaysia’s economy is set to lose further momentum over the rest of the year as tighter fiscal policy, weaker consumer spending and a tough external environment weigh on growth. … Malaysia GDP …
The strong performance by Duterte’s supporters in the midterm elections should lead to further progress on pushing through economic reforms. However, the results will do little to stop the country’s slide towards autocracy, and bode poorly for the …
15th May 2019
Pakistan’s agreement with the IMF is likely to lead to slower growth and higher inflation in the short term. However, policy tightening and structural reforms should lead to an improvement in the country’s long-term prospects. … Pakistan: IMF deal to …
14th May 2019
The trade war between the US and China has so far had a very small impact on the rest of Asia, which has been dwarfed by the much bigger impact of the slowdown in global growth and the downturn in the technology sector. Even for the most exposed …
13th May 2019
In his first major policy speech since his re-election President Joko Widodo promised to press ahead with plans to boost infrastructure spending, reduce bureaucracy and open up the economy to foreign investors. But the lack of any mention of changes to …
10th May 2019
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) cut interest rates by 25bp today, and further interest rate cuts seem only a matter of time. Given the subdued outlook for inflation and the dovish nature of today’s comments from the BSP, policy easing this year …
9th May 2019
Q1’s slump in GDP growth should be temporary, as it was mainly driven by budget delays. But hopes for a sustained rebound are likely to be disappointed. A tough external environment and the lagged effects of monetary tightening mean growth is likely to …
One year on from Mahathir’s shock re-election, the Malaysian prime minister has made some useful progress in tackling corruption, but his decision to eliminate the Goods and Service Tax (GST) and revive a number of stalled construction projects look like …
8th May 2019
Despite the downbeat outlook for Thailand’s economy, the central bank (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today. Continued concerns over risks in the financial sector mean that it is unlikely to join other central banks from the region in …
With economic growth likely to remain weak throughout 2019, today’s 25bps rate cut by the central bank in Malaysia (BNM) is likely to be followed by further easing later in the year. … Another cut likely in Malaysia before …
7th May 2019
GDP growth in Indonesia has been suspiciously stable at around 5% over the past five years, and it was no surprise that it recorded another quarter of growth at close to this rate in the first quarter. In contrast, our Indonesia Activity Tracker suggests …
6th May 2019
The decision by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s to upgrade its long-term credit rating for the Philippines to BBB+ risks underplaying the country’s worsening external position as well as its deteriorating political situation. Regular readers will know …
3rd May 2019
A slight improvement in the April PMIs fits with yesterday’s trade data from Korea in suggesting that the region’s economies have passed the worst. That said, we still expect regional growth to remain weak over the rest of 2019 and to record its slowest …
2nd May 2019
The rebound in Korean exports in April, which was mainly due to a further recovery in demand for semi-conductors, supports our view that the worst is now over for the export sector and the broader economy. … Is the worst now over for Korean …
1st May 2019
There are good reasons why Indonesia wants to move its capital city away from Jakarta, but any move faces significant obstacles. The main reason for wanting to move is that Jakarta is sinking. According to some estimates, 95% of north Jakarta will be …
30th April 2019
GDP growth in Taiwan held up surprisingly well last quarter, but we doubt this resilience will last. The breakdown of the figures show that domestic demand weakened further last quarter and that overall growth was only so strong because of a sharp drop in …
Despite the recent rise in oil prices, inflation across the region is likely to remain subdued throughout 2019. We don’t think higher oil prices will stop Asian central banks from raising interest rates later this year. Meanwhile, although GDP growth is …
26th April 2019
Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today and there was little indication in the statement that it is likely to adjust monetary policy anytime soon. We expect rates to remain on hold throughout this year. … Indonesia: rates to …
25th April 2019
The sharp slowdown in Korea’s economy in Q1, which saw GDP fall by 0.3% q/q, will probably mark a trough. But with headwinds to growth set to remain, a strong rebound is unlikely. In light of today’s weak outturn, we are nudging down our forecast for this …
The deadly terrorist attacks that took place across Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday are first and foremost a human tragedy, but are also likely to have severe economic consequences. A big drop in tourist arrivals will not only lead to a sharp slowdown in …
23rd April 2019
The most recent trade data, including the very weak outturn in Korean exports over the first 20 days of this month, suggest that regional trade remains in the doldrums. With the external sector facing a number of headwinds, we think this weakness will …
22nd April 2019
A slump in electronics exports has been a key drag on economic growth across Asia in recent months, but there are tentative signs that the worst may now be over. Meanwhile, after months of delays, the government in the Philippines has finally signed the …
18th April 2019
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% today. But, while it sounded less upbeat on the economy, we still think the BoK is too optimistic on the outlook for growth. With growth likely to undershoot the Bank’s expectations, we are …
The two key economic challenges facing President Joko Widodo in his second term are boosting GDP growth and reducing Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities. We don’t think he will succeed in either. … Indonesia: Jokowi will struggle to revive …
17th April 2019
With Joko Widodo around 20%-points ahead of Prabowo Subianto in the latest opinion polls, the result of Wednesday’s presidential election in Indonesia looks like a foregone conclusion. Mainly because he is so far ahead in the polls, a Jokowi victory is …
12th April 2019
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today left its policy settings unchanged, but given the worsening outlook for the economy, we think it will loosen policy at its next meeting in October. … Singapore: weak growth to prompt loosening from …
We expect GDP growth across Emerging Asia to be very weak this year, with a number of countries set to grow at their weakest rates since the global financial crisis. A key drag will come from falling exports – our forecasts for the global economy suggest …
11th April 2019
