Filtered by Subscriptions: Asia Economics Use setting Asia Economics
Malaysia’s recovery in reverse Malaysian GDP figures, due to be released on Thursday, are likely to show a sharp slowdown in the recovery in the final quarter of last year. (See our data preview below for details.) The recovery is likely to go into …
5th February 2021
The contraction in Indonesian GDP eased slightly again at the end of last year, but a failure to control the virus means the recovery is likely to be slow and fitful in the quarters ahead. Figures published today show that Indonesian GDP contracted by …
Inflation to stall central bank easing Inflation broke through the upper boundary of the central Bank’s target range for the first time in two years in January and is likely to lead the Bank to pause its easing cycle. But with price pressures set to fall …
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at an all-time low of just 0.5% today and sounded more downbeat about the prospects for growth this year. The poor outlook for the economy means that interest rates are likely to remain very low …
3rd February 2021
Myanmar’s biggest investors and trading partners are its neighbours, notably China, which won’t respond to yesterday’s coup with sanctions. But the economic consequences could still be significant if the EU and the US tightened restrictions on the …
2nd February 2021
The period covered by the new Five-Year Plan offers Vietnam an opportunity to establish itself as a major export manufacturing hub. Policy priorities will be to improve the business environment so as to nurture the private sector and to attract more …
1st February 2021
Exports to remain elevated Korean exports remain elevated at the start of this year, buoyed by shipments of electronics and autos. While some of this strength may fade later in the year, Korea’s external sector is still set for another decent performance …
Strong start to 2021 to continue PMI readings for Asia suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places. Buoyant global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for at least the next few months. PMIs for January were …
More evidence of resilience from Korea The latest batch of activity data from Korea indicate the economy held up well in December and suggest that companies are learning to cope better with new COVID-19 restrictions. This week’s Q4 GDP figures revealed …
29th January 2021
Figures released today show Taiwan’s economy continued to outperform last quarter, thanks to continued strong demand for the island’s exports. Although the economy will continue to slow in q/q terms over the coming year, we are raising our forecasts for …
Recovery will continue to disappoint The Philippines saw another lacklustre rebound in GDP in Q4 and big improvements will be hard to come by in the quarters ahead. Output is unlikely to regain its pre-crisis level until the end of 2021. The economy grew …
28th January 2021
Headline inflation has crept higher in most countries across Emerging Asia over the past few months and looks set to rise sharply over the first half of this year due to a rebound in energy price inflation caused by the recovery in global oil prices. …
27th January 2021
Korea’s recovery lost a little steam last quarter as a third wave of infections weighed on private consumption, but with cases now on a downward trend, the recovery should regain momentum over the coming quarters. Data released today show GDP rose 1.1% …
26th January 2021
Indonesia opening for business The near-term outlook for Indonesia’s economy is poor. A failure to contain the coronavirus means that the economic recovery is likely to be slow and fitful. But long-term economic prospects received a boost this week with …
22nd January 2021
Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, but we doubt this marks the end of the central bank’s easing cycle. With the economic recovery struggling, inflation below target and the currency holding up well against the US …
21st January 2021
Korean export recovery to remain strong Korean exports remained elevated at the start of the year. While some of this strength may fade in the coming quarters, Korea’s external sector is still set for another decent performance in 2021. The timely nature …
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its main policy rate on hold at 1.75% today, but with the country once again in lockdown following a surge in COVID-19 cases, we think that the Bank will eventually be forced into action. Of the 23 analysts polled by …
20th January 2021
In this Update we take a look at the important elections and political events that are set to take place across Asia over the coming year as well as any potential flashpoints, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic growth. Later this …
Overview – Our forecasts for GDP growth across Emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board, but fresh outbreaks in a number of countries mean the risks to our forecasts are to the downside. Korea , Malaysia, Hong …
18th January 2021
Indonesia’s novel vaccine strategy Indonesia’s vaccination campaign got underway earlier this week amid surging cases of COVID-19 across the country. Whereas most countries are prioritising the elderly and vulnerable in vaccination rollouts, Indonesia has …
15th January 2021
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today in a unanimous decision, and with signs that the latest virus outbreak is coming under control, further rate cuts seem unlikely this year. Korea’s third wave of the virus had …
The decision by the Malaysian government to place the country under a two-week lockdown to slow the spread of the virus is likely to hit the economy hard. We are cutting our growth forecast for 2021 from 10% to 7%. We also now expect the central bank to …
12th January 2021
Korean exports to remain elevated Korean trade data suggest that strong export growth continued at the start of the year and reaffirm our view that exports will remain an important support to recoveries in Korea and across Asia. The timely nature of the …
11th January 2021
Vietnam: outperformance continues GDP figures for Vietnam should always be treated with caution, but data released before New Year show that the economy grew by an impressive 4.5% y/y in the final quarter of 2020. This brought growth for the year to 2.9%, …
8th January 2021
Korea’s population last year shrank for the first time in its history, underlining the seriousness of the demographic “time bomb” facing the country. The poor demographic outlook is the key reason why we expect trend growth in Korea to slow sharply over …
5th January 2021
Recovery to continue at decent pace in 2021 Advanced GDP data show that Singapore’s economy continued to rebound at the end of 2020 – buoyant global demand for electronics and pharmaceuticals, strong fiscal support, and widespread vaccination should see …
4th January 2021
Strong end to 2020 to continue into this year Manufacturing PMIs and Korean trade data suggest that regional industry and exports saw another sharp improvement at the end of the year. While some of this strength may fade in the coming quarters, we still …
The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at an all-time low of just 0.5% today came as no surprise, and the poor outlook for the economy means rates are likely to remain at their current low level until at least the end of …
23rd December 2020
Korea , Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand are all experiencing major new outbreaks of the virus, which pose a significant downside risk to our relatively upbeat GDP forecasts for these countries for 2021. The lesson from Vietnam , which experienced a big …
22nd December 2020
Strong Korean export growth to continue Korean exports remain remarkably strong, despite renewed waves of the virus at home and abroad, and we expect this to continue over the coming months. The timely nature of the Korean trade data makes them a good …
21st December 2020
Fiscal policy to stay supportive, except in Sri Lanka Most countries in Asia came into this year with a relatively low level of government debt. They are generally better placed than other emerging markets to cope with the sharp increases due to COVID-19. …
18th December 2020
The decision by Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.125% came as no surprise given the strong performance of the economy. We expect interest rates to be left unchanged over the coming year. Today’s decision was correctly …
17th December 2020
Indonesia’s central bank left interest rates unchanged today, but given the poor outlook for growth, further easing is likely early next year. The decision by Bank Indonesia to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% came as no real surprise – 24 of the …
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its key policy rate on hold today at 2.0%, but the weakness of the recovery means further easing is likely. The pause was no surprise. All 16 analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected no change, including …
The US Treasury’s decision to label Vietnam a currency manipulator today is primarily a response to the surge in Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US. The next step is likely to be talks – with Vietnam likely to promise to increase imports from the US and …
16th December 2020
The Korean government is on the verge of introducing much tighter restrictions to stem the rise in coronavirus cases. We are not cutting our GDP growth forecasts yet, but the risks are now clearly to the downside. Daily new confirmed cases of coronavirus …
Our forecasts for GDP growth across emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board. Even so, in many places, output will still be below the pre-crisis level until the end of the year and it will remain well below its …
On hold on Thursday, and beyond Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) looks all but certain to leave its main policy rate unchanged at its current all-time low of 1.125% at its meeting on Thursday. With the economy performing well, there is a plausible argument …
11th December 2020
Korean export recovery to remain strong Korean exports were buoyant in the first ten days of December, with no sign that renewed waves of the virus are weighing on external demand. We expect exports to remain strong in the coming months. The timely nature …
Faster recovery now likely The recent good news on vaccine development means that countries in Emerging Asia are likely to start inoculating their populations sooner than we had previously envisaged. As we outlined in a recent Update , an effective …
4th December 2020
Korean export outperformance to continue Korean export growth continued to gather momentum in November and is set to remain strong in the months ahead, buoyed by foreign demand for electronics. Korean trade data provide a good guide to the performance of …
1st December 2020
Strong industry performance to continue PMI readings for Asia suggest that manufacturing conditions improved significantly in November. Buoyant global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector over the coming months. PMIs for November …
National accounts data published over the past month or so confirm that many economies experienced record-breaking rebounds in GDP in the third quarter. However, there are significant variations across the region. Output is now back to its pre-crisis …
30th November 2020
Despite renewed concern from policymakers in Thailand over the appreciation of the Thai baht, we find little evidence that the rising currency is having a negative effect on the economy, and we don’t think it will be a major drag on the recovery. At its …
How will the BoK respond to rising property prices Rising property prices in Korea appear to be causing some concern at the central bank, with the BoK governor on Thursday again noting that “housing prices have continued to increase in all parts of the …
27th November 2020
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% in a unanimous decision, and with the economy set to rebound further in spite of a growing third wave of the coronavirus, further easing seems unlikely in the months ahead. Instead, rates …
26th November 2020
Exports maintain strong momentum Buoyant foreign demand for electronics drove strong export growth over the first 20 days of November and this should remain the case over the coming months. Timely Korean trade data are a good bellwether for the health of …
23rd November 2020
Economy bouncing back strongly The upward revision to Singapore’s Q3 GDP figures shows that the economy has rebounded strongly, and we expect the recovery to continue at a decent pace on the back of strong fiscal support and buoyant global demand for …
More encouraging vaccine news The past week has brought more positive developments on the vaccine front, with the latest news from AstraZeneca and Pfizer providing a further boost to regional stock markets. It now seems likely that at least one vaccine …
20th November 2020
Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its main policy rate today by 25bps to 3.75%, and further gradual easing is likely provided the currency continues to perform well against the US dollar. Of the 26 economists polled by Bloomberg, 14 expected rates to remain …
19th November 2020
