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Tourism boost and risk of factory disruption Chinese authorities appear to have given up on efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19 much earlier than we had previously anticipated. (See here .) We suspect that China’s economy will experience a …
16th December 2022
This is part of a series of reports outlining our key macro and market calls for 2023. Click here to view the full series. Our latest EM Outlook can be found here . EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. …
15th December 2022
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bps (to 1.75%) but with inflation easing and growth set to struggle, we expect this hike to have marked an end to the tightening cycle. Today’s decision was in line with expectations. Of …
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today raised its main policy rate by 50bps (to 5.50%), but with Governor Felipe Medalla sounding more dovish than expected on inflation, we think the tightening cycle will be over soon. The decision was exactly in …
End of the tightening cycle Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bps (to 1.75%) but with inflation easing and growth set to struggle we expect this hike to have marked an end to the tightening cycle. Today’s decision was in …
Tightening cycle nearing an end The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today raised its main policy rate by a further 50bps (to 5.50%), but with Governor Felipe Medalla sounding more dovish than expected on inflation, we think the tightening cycle will …
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With inflationary …
13th December 2022
Inflation still rising in the Philippines The past week has brought mostly good news on the inflation front. Of the nine countries in the region to have reported November inflation figures, the y/y rate dropped or was stable in eight of them. (See Chart …
9th December 2022
Weak data, slowing inflation, dovish BoK A string of weak activity data, a sharp drop in inflation and dovish comments from the central bank support our view that the Bank of Korea’s tightening cycle is coming to an end soon. The final estimate of third …
2nd December 2022
Further weakness ahead Manufacturing PMIs across the region fell further into contractionary territory in November, driven by a sharp decline in the employment index. We expect conditions to remain subdued as weaker global demand, high inflation and …
1st December 2022
The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by a further 25bps (to 1.25%), and reiterated that it is likely to continue tightening policy gradually over the coming months. The decision was correctly predicted by 17 out of the 19 analysts polled by …
30th November 2022
Thailand: gradual tightening cycle to continue The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by a further 25bps (to 1.25%), and reiterated that it is likely to continue to tighten policy gradually over the coming months. The decision was correctly …
Most countries in the region have now reported GDP figures for the third quarter, and growth was generally faster than we (and the consensus) had expected. One factor behind this resilience was the strength of private consumption, which held up well in …
29th November 2022
Strike highlights need for labour market reform The costs of a strike by Korean truck drivers – the second this year – are starting to mount, with steel and cement producers reporting disruption. The Korean government estimated that the economic losses …
25th November 2022
Inflation appears to have finally peaked for emerging markets – but how quickly will price pressures now ease, and what will that mean for the 2023 outlook? In December's monthly dive into the big stories in EM macro and markets, economists from across …
24th November 2022
Malaysia’s new prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, lacks a majority in parliament and his appointment is unlikely to bring to an end the political instability and uncertainty that has held Malaysia’s economy back since 2018. Just keeping the government …
The Bank of Korea (BoK) today raised interest rates by a further 25bps (to 3.25%) and the accompanying hawkish statement suggests the tightening cycle still has a little further to run. We are tweaking our forecasts for next year and now expect one more …
The Bank of Korea today raised interest rates by a further 25bps (to 3.25%), but with growth slowing and inflation easing, we think there is a good chance this marks the end of the central bank’s tightening cycle. Today’s decision came as little surprise …
Revised GDP data confirm that the economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter. However, we don’t expect this strength to last. A combination of weaker global growth, high inflation and tighter monetary policy will weigh heavily on activity over the …
23rd November 2022
Thailand’s economy accelerated in the third quarter on the back of a surge in service exports. Although the global downturn and higher interest rates will weigh on prospects, we expect growth to hold up relatively well over the coming quarters as …
21st November 2022
Growth to hold up (relatively) well Thailand’s economy accelerated in the third quarter on the back of strong consumer spending and investment activity. Although the global downturn and higher interest rates will weigh on prospects, we expect growth to …
Rebound in Asian currencies unlikely to last The rebound in Asian currencies triggered by the weaker-than-expected US CPI data for October already appears to be running out of steam. A number of currencies, including the won and the rupiah, have dropped …
18th November 2022
Bank Indonesia (BI) today raised interest rates by a further 50bps (to 5.25%) and we think further hikes are likely as the central bank looks to support the rupiah and clamp down on inflation. In its press conference the central bank stated that …
17th November 2022
The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) today raised its main policy rate by a further 75bps (to 5.0%), and we think further tightening is likely in the near term. But with inflation having probably peaked, headwinds to the recovery mounting and the …
More hikes coming in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) today raised interest rates by a further 50bps (to 5.25%) and we think further hikes are likely as the central bank looks to support the rupiah and clamp down on inflation. While a rate hike today was …
Further hikes likely in the near term, but tightening cycle to be over by early next year The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) today raised its main policy rate by a further 75bps (to 5.0%), and we think further tightening is likely in the near term. …
Malaysia heads to the polls on Saturday for a general election which, if the latest opinion polls are correct, will lead to a further period of unstable and fractured politics. This reduces the chances of meaningful economic reforms being passed and …
16th November 2022
Below consensus growth for Taiwan in 2023 Surging demand for electronics products helped Taiwan’s economy sail through the pandemic. But with this tailwind now turning into a headwind, growth looks set to slow sharply. Export volumes have fallen back …
11th November 2022
Malaysia’s economy slowed in Q3, and we think growth will struggle over the coming quarters as lower commodity prices, weaker global demand and tighter monetary policy drag on prospects. According to figures published today, economic growth slowed to 1.9% …
Growth likely to decelerate further The economy slowed sharply during the third quarter, and we think growth will ease further over the coming quarters with lower commodity prices, weaker global demand and tighter monetary policy set to drag on prospects. …
The Philippines economy rebounded in the third quarter of the year, but we expect growth to slow over the coming months as high inflation, rising interest rates and weaker global demand weigh on prospects. GDP grew by 2.9% in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms …
10th November 2022
Weaker growth ahead as headwinds mount The Philippines economy rebounded sharply in the third quarter of the year, but we expect growth to slow over the coming months as high inflation, rising interest rates and weaker global demand weigh on prospects. …
Slower growth ahead Economic growth in Indonesia accelerated in the third quarter, but this is likely to be as good as it gets. We expect lower commodity prices, tighter monetary policy and elevated inflation to drag on growth over the coming quarters. …
7th November 2022
As good as it gets Economic growth in Indonesia accelerated in the third quarter, but this is likely to be as good as it gets. We expect lower commodity prices, tighter monetary policy and elevated inflation to drag on growth over the coming quarters. …
Risks have been building for a while Commercial interest rates in Korea have continued to rise over the past week despite aggressive intervention by the authorities as they struggle to calm the markets. (See Chart 1.) While the recent jump in borrowing …
4th November 2022
Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) raised its main policy rate by 25bp (to 2.75%) today, but with inflation falling and growth set to slow, we think the tightening cycle is nearing an end. Today’s move came as little surprise and was accurately predicted by …
3rd November 2022
BNM closing in on the finish line Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) raised its main policy rate by 25bp (to 2.75%) today, but with inflation falling and growth set to slow, we think the tightening cycle is nearing an end. Today’s move came as little surprise …
Asian manufacturing to remain weak Manufacturing PMIs across the region were downbeat in October owing to weak external demand and a deterioration in the employment outlook. We expect manufacturing to remain subdued, as weaker global demand, elevated …
1st November 2022
Central banks across the region have been stepping up the pace of intervention in foreign exchange markets to support their currencies, resulting in a drop in FX reserves. In most countries, reserves are down by around 10% from their recent peaks, and …
31st October 2022
What to expect in 2023 We published our latest Emerging Asia Economic Outlook this week, which contains our detailed forecasts. Here are three key calls from the report. Sharp slowdown ahead Growth across Emerging Asia looks set to slow sharply over the …
28th October 2022
Taiwan’s economy returned to growth in Q3, after the Omicron-induced slump in the second quarter, but we expect growth to weaken considerably over the coming quarters as exports struggle and the reopening boost to domestic demand fades. According to …
Growth to weaken sharply in coming quarters The economy returned to growth in Q3, after the Omicron-induced slump in the second quarter, but we expect growth to weaken considerably over the coming quarters as exports struggle and the reopening boost to …
GDP growth in Korea slowed sharply in the third quarter of the year, and we think the economy will remain weak over the coming quarters as higher interest rates and weaker export demand weigh on prospects. According to figures published today, GDP growth …
27th October 2022
Further weakness ahead GDP growth in Korea slowed sharply in the third quarter of the year, and we think the economy will remain weak over the coming quarters as higher interest rates and weaker export demand weigh on prospects. According to figures …
Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) hiked its main policy rate by a further 100bp (to 6.0%) yesterday at an unscheduled meeting as it attempted to support the currency. With the dong likely to remain under downward pressure, further hikes are likely. …
25th October 2022
Overview – Economic growth in most countries looks set to slow sharply next year as weaker exports and higher interest rates weigh on activity. With price pressures starting to ease, we expect central banks to begin to shift their focus from containing …
24th October 2022
Decent Q3 growth Korean GDP figures due on Thursday are likely to show that the economy held up reasonably well in the third quarter of the year. We have pencilled in growth of 0.4% q/q. While this would represent a slowdown compared with the 0.7% …
21st October 2022
Economists from across our Asia teams were online for this 20-minute briefing on the region’s big investment stories. During this session, the team answered client questions about what’s happening in Asian economics and markets as they addressed current …
20th October 2022
Bank Indonesia today raised its main policy rate by 50bp (to 4.75%), and further rate hikes are likely in the near term as the central bank looks to support the currency and clamp down on inflation. A rate hike today was always likely, the only question …
BI has more work to do Bank Indonesia today raised its main policy rate by 50bp (to 4.75%), and further rate hikes are likely in the near term as the central bank looks to support the currency and clamp down on inflation. A rate hike today was always …
