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A surge in bank lending in China has raised confidence that the government’s efforts to stimulate the economy are already bearing fruit. Shares prices in Shanghai have risen 22% since the start of the year, in part as a response. Yet increased lending …
24th February 2009
China’s banks seem to be playing their part in financing the government’s stimulus plans. But the rest of the economic data is bleak. … Surging bank loans not enough to save …
12th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Trade (Jan.) …
11th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China CPI (Jan.) …
10th February 2009
The sustainability of China’s purchases of US Treasuries is once again being called into question. While the circumstances have shifted, much of the concern is familiar and still, we think, misguided. … Is China still the US Treasury’s best …
4th February 2009
China’s economic growth rate has halved in 18 months. We estimate that GDP increased by little more than 6% y/y in the fourth quarter after 9% in the third and a peak of 12.6% in the second quarter of 2007. Yet exporters are only just starting to suffer, …
24th January 2009
Some glimmers of light in the monthly data from China are raising hopes that the world’s third largest economy may be through the worst after quarterly growth slumped in Q4. But we fear that incoming data will disappoint and economic growth will slow from …
22nd January 2009
Hot capital continues to flow out of China, although October’s flood has since diminished. This raises the chances of a modest renminbi depreciation against the dollar over the coming year. … China still suffering hot capital …
13th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Trade (Dec.) …
A run of poor data and doubts about the effectiveness of the government’s stimulus plans have prompted us to cut our 2009 GDP growth forecast for China from 8% to 7%. Admittedly, the government’s response to the ongoing slowdown has been impressive, at …
24th December 2008
Developments in China’s economy will do little to support growth in the rest of the world next year and China’s policy response to the slowdown could even end up making things far worse. … Could China end up making things worse in …
18th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China CPI (Nov.) …
11th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Trade (Nov.) …
10th December 2008
Local sources suggest that Chinese exports have experienced a sudden collapse. This may explain last week’s inter-day weakness in the renminbi. But the case for a sustained depreciation is still poor. … Chinese exports fall off a …
8th December 2008
A sizeable depreciation of the renminbi against the dollar would be provocative during a global slump and might do little to help China’s economy. … Should China force a renminbi …
4th December 2008
With credit quotas lifted, China’s aggressive rate cuts today should ensure that the flow of credit to the economy is sustained. But the government’s hopes that the banking sector will finance much of its fiscal stimulus could prove overblown. … China …
26th November 2008
Global financial market turmoil and the dollar rebound have been reflected in further equity market weakness in China and in a surge in the renminbi’s tradeweighted exchange rate. But global weakness in demand has yet to make much of a mark on the real …
24th November 2008
Thirty years after the launch of reform in China, the experience of Japan and the Asian tigers underlines the need for China to shift its economic model if it is to sustain rapid growth over the medium term. … Is China running out of steam after 30 years …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Trade, CPI (Oct.) …
11th November 2008
China’s announcement of a huge fiscal stimulus package is an attempt to shock and awe Chinese firms and households to keep spending. If it succeeds, the government will end up spending much less than the headline figures suggest. … China’s fiscal package …
10th November 2008
The quiet lifting of credit quotas, confirmed in Chinese media over the weekend, is arguably the most significant step taken so far by the authorities as they attempt to limit China’s economic slowdown. Quotas on the amount banks can lend have been …
4th November 2008
In focusing too narrowly on supporting the economy over the short term, China risks undermining its successes in making growth more sustainable over the long term. … Botching the slowdown in …
22nd October 2008
The sharp slowdown in Chinese GDP growth in the third quarter is hard to square with detail showing still healthy growth in spending across the economy. Nonetheless, officials will err on the side of caution. Further interest rate cuts and a fiscal boost …
20th October 2008
The latest data suggest that investors have been pulling money out of China in recent weeks. After dealing with hot inflows of nearly $200bn in the first half of 2008, officials will be glad for the respite. … Capital outflows now affecting China …
14th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Trade (Sep.) …
13th October 2008
Chinese share valuations are now at their lowest in more than a decade. Yet government attempts today to give them a boost through a tax cut and direct share purchases may be more harmful than helpful in the long run. … China tries to stem the equity …
18th September 2008
Today’s unexpected rate cut in China is intended as a sign that the government is willing to act preemptively to guarantee continued strong economic growth. But there will also be suspicions that the government has been rattled into boosting share prices, …
15th September 2008
Markets appear to have all but given up on the idea that the renminbi will appreciate against the dollar over the next year. But we find nothing in the data on China’s real economy or in the outlook for the dollar to justify this view. We think that the …
11th September 2008
Today’s trade and inflation data from China open the door to a series of policy adjustments, including to fuel pricing, but an end to currency appreciation is unlikely to be among them. … Policy rethink ahead in China as inflation …
10th September 2008
Officials at the People’s Bank of China should be feeling pretty pleased with themselves. Market expectations for future renminbi appreciation have tumbled following a month of slower currency gains and acknowledgement from the leadership that inflation …
24th August 2008
Market speculation that China’s government is lining up a big fiscal package is likely to prove unfounded. With the economy still in good shape, there is no immediate need for a stimulus. Nonetheless, fiscal policy does have an important role to play over …
21st August 2008
With consumer spending outpacing expectations, China will this year contribute twice as much to growth in real global consumption as the US, euro-zone and Japan combined. (See Chart 1.) This should guarantee another year of healthy growth for China as a …
18th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Consumer Prices (Jul.) …
12th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Trade, PPI (Jul.) …
11th August 2008
For many, China enters a new era with the hosting of the Olympics. There is a growing sense that China is also going through an economic transition: a poor run of data has sparked questions over whether China’s days of double digit growth are behind it. …
8th August 2008
China’s equity investors have been left stunned by a 20% fall in prices since the beginning of June. This has taken the benchmark Shanghai Composite index beneath the 3000 level that many investors had assumed was a governmentsupported floor, but no …
24th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Consumer Prices (May) …
12th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Trade, PPI (May) …
11th June 2008
High oil prices have forced a number of Asian countries to reform their fuel subsidy programmes in the last couple of weeks. China is by far the largest oil consumer in the region and matters far more to global oil demand. But China’s government is more …
5th June 2008
Rebalancing of China’s economy away from investment and heavy industry will require significant reform of the financial sector and of monetary policy, including higher (not lower) interest rates. Financial sector reform will include further development of …
28th May 2008
China’s headline inflation eased in March, but there are worrying signs that price pressures may be spreading beyond food. The activity data confirm that the economy remains strong, easing at least one set of concerns over the outlook. Export growth has …
24th May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Consumer Prices (Apr) …
12th May 2008
Fiscal policy could make a significant contribution to reducing China’s massive current account surplus, though discussion of rebalancing often overlooks its potential. The government has the resources to increase spending or cut taxes now, but it is …
17th April 2008
We expect the renminbi to rise by around 15% against the dollar this year (taking it to 6.20 yuan/$) and another 10% in 2009 (to 5.60). The faster pace of appreciation over the last few months has probably been kick-started by inflation concerns and …
1st April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Consumer Prices (Feb) …
11th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Trade, PPI (Feb.) …
10th March 2008
After several years during which wages have grown more slowly than the economy, consumption accounted for barely a third of overall Chinese demand in 2007. But there are a couple of reasons to think it will play a much bigger role in the next couple of …
24th February 2008
Chinese inflation is now at its highest in 11 years, and there seems little prospect of it falling much in the next couple of months. This has set alarm bells ringing in countries that have grown accustomed to cheap Chinese imports helping to keep a lid …
21st February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Consumer Prices (Jan) …
19th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China External Trade (Jan) …
15th February 2008
